2008-09 College Football Season Preview
By Jim Kruger

The 2007-08 college football season had its share of expected results and some pleasant surprises.  I doubt very many people foresaw Illinois and Kansas making it to a BCS game before the season began.  Ohio State rose above expectations by making it to the BCS title game for the second straight year only to .  With a soft schedule Hawaii managed to make it to the BCS promised-land but failed to have the same results as fellow WAC team Boise State did the prior year when they upset Oklahoma on some of the greatest trick plays ever seen.

The season also brought us two of the greatest college football upsets of all time:  Appalachian State, which everybody now knows is in Boone, NC, over preseason #5 and national champion hopeful Michigan, and Stanford with its loquacious first-year coach Jim Harbaugh over #1/#2 USC. 

Odd happenings included the “is he staying or going” adventure of “Michigan man” Les Miles and Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy providing one of the year’s best YouTube moments with his “I’m 40” rant.  Notre Dame went down hard including their first loss to Navy since 1963.  The rise of the Sun Belt Conference was evident with UL-Monroe’s win over Alabama.  Finally, for the first time ever, a sophomore, Florida’s Tim Tebow, won the Heisman Trophy. 

The downtrodden programs of Buffalo and Temple raised their heads and look to be even better this year.  Parity is becoming more of a reality and schools that have traditionally scheduled so-called softer or smaller schools can find themselves in for a fight.  The spread offense is being propagated throughout the country and is helping schools level the playing field somewhat. 

The teams that did not live up to expectations had Louisville leading the list.  A coaching change and injuries helped the Cardinals fall from a 12-1 2006 record as a national title contender to a .500 team.  Other preseason top 25 teams that failed to finish there were California, UCLA, Rutgers, Arkansas, Florida State, Nebraska, Boise State, TCU, and Texas A&M.  Penn State did achieve a #25 ranking in the final coaches’ poll otherwise that would have made that unglamorous list.

The biggest surprise breakthroughs included AP finishes of #4 and #7 for Missouri and Kansas respectively.  Boston College was the other top ten surprise at #10.  BYU, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Illinois, Clemson, Texas Tech, Oregon, and Oregon State also exceeded preseason predictions by the polls.

Strong seasons were turned in by the Big 12 with four teams in the final AP and USA Today Coaches Poll.  The SEC and Big Ten both placed numerous teams in the final polls.  The Pac-10 won four of its six bowl games and had a very good non-conference schedule.
 
Some potential breakthrough teams this year include North Carolina and Pitt.  Both have had good recruiting classes and have favorable schedules.  Carolina lost six games by a touchdown or less.  BYU has had back-to-back undefeated conference seasons so they won’t be a surprise “breakthrough”, but If BYU gets by Washington and UCLA in non-conference action, they could be the non-BCS team making it to a BCS Bowl.  Mississippi State should continue to improve having a good schedule but still needs to find a better semblance of a passing game.

There will be a few teams that will see a downturn this season.  At the top of the list is Hawaii who loses the #3 Heisman vote-getter in QB Colt Brennan and a very popular head coach in June Jones.  The Warriors are followed by Kentucky in the post-Woodson days.  It’s granted that the military academy schools lose many senior starters every year but Air Force also lost playmakers that won’t be replaced this season.  Oregon State peaked last year and with heavy graduation losses, QB uncertainty, and a couple of road games to Penn State and Utah, will not be near last year’s season.  Graduation losses and the fact that Virginia won too many games by too few of points should prevent any recreation of the Cavaliers’ fine 2007 season. 

In the “who’s got game and who doesn’t” category, Kansas State comes up as the wimp as it backed out of a home game against Fresno State this season after K-State coach Ron Prince said they would never duck away from anyone.  K-State rescheduled Montana State to come visit the shameless Wildcats.  Fresno State behind coach Pat Hill is the team who doesn’t back down as they immediately scheduled a road game to Rutgers.

Clemson should be the pride of the ACC finally living up to expectations.  West Virginia is the best in a slightly down Big East.  In the Big 12, Kansas has a lot of people back but many times you see a rubber band effect on a team that has performed way above, or below, seasonal expectations and they return closer to the norm.  Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12 South will be pushed by Texas Tech now that the Red Raiders are starting to learn to play defense. 

Wisconsin is going to give Ohio State a good run for the Big Ten glory.  The Badgers could be in the BCS title game if the Buckeye’s stumble against USC on Sept. 13 and Wisconsin can survive a brutal four game stretch in visiting Fresno St. and Michigan, then home against Ohio State and Penn State.  USC is the class of the Pac-10 once again. 

After winning the past two national championships, it is difficult to imagine the SEC champion not being in the BCS title game.  So the big questions is which of the SEC title candidates will make it make it to the title game and whom will they face?  A killer defense and pass rush will push Georgia to the top five in the nation. If they can get by a road trip to LSU and find some better wideouts, the Dawgs very well could be in then BCS title game.  If Georgia stumbles, Florida or LSU are there to take its place.  Uncertainty in the secondary for Florida and some key personnel losses at LSU and just the fact that it is difficult to repeat could spell problems, however.

BCS Bowl Game Predictions

Jan. 1, 2009 - Orange Bowl – West Virginia over Virginia Tech
Jan. 1, 2009 - Rose Bowl – Wisconsin over USC
Jan. 2, 2009 - Sugar Bowl  - Clemson over Texas Tech
Jan. 5, 2009 - Fiesta Bowl  - Florida over Oklahoma
Jan. 8, 2009 - BCS National Championship Game (Miami) – Ohio State over Georgia