One has to continously evaluate college teams. It is a time consuming task, especially considering the number of teams that one can wager on. Here are a few team assessments this first week in January:
Underachievers
Louisville started out ranked #3 in the nation. The Cardinals lost on neutral courts to Sun Belt Conference Western Kentucky and to Minnesota. UNLV went on the road last week with their top player injured and beat Louisville. The Cards are playing very good defense but their offensive efficiency is sub-par. This is more glaring when you realize they have played a schedule full of weak defensive teams, with the exclusion of UNLV and Kentucky. Shooting 66.1% from the free-throw stripe leaves a lot of points on the court. Big man Fr. Samardo Samuels has to play more above the rim and draw more fouls. Terrence Williams has slightly improved his shooting from a miserable previous season, but he is only shooting 41.1% on 2-pointers and 29.8% on 3’s. Williams takes the most shots on the team but has a very poor offensive efficiency rating of 99.8. The starter with the best OE rating, Jerry Smith, 121.7, takes the fewest shots of any of the top seven in rotation. Last year Louisville started slowly at 5-3 but came on strong to finish at 27-9. The lack of offense has helped Louisville to a 3-7 O/U mark.
Arizona can play like a top ten team or one that is a conference bottom feeder. They are 7-1 at home with the lone loss being by one-point to a quality UAB team. But, the Wildcats are 0-4 on the road with pathetic offensive showings in their last three away tilts. Turnovers have been a tremendous problem on the road, also. A lack of depth does not help but three high-quality starters in Nic Wise, Chase Budinger, and Jordan Hill all have high-NBA potential with Hill being a lottery pick. Zona is in the bottom ten in the nation in the ratio of three-point field goals attempted to two-pointers. When there isn’t much of a threat from outside, the defense can sag inside. What is odd is the Wildcats rank 14th in 3-point shooting at 40.0%. You would think more 3’s would be going up with such a success rate. This week’s home games against the Oregon schools will help unravel the Arizona mystery. Arizona is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite.
Are They for Real?
LSU has a gaudy 13-1 record which is deceptive as they have only played five lined games and have played the softest schedule in the nation out of 344 D-1 schools. Besides a couple of Sun Belt teams and a Big West squad, the Tigers have played two BCS schools. They lost in their only venture away from home, a semi-away game in Houston to Texas A&M. They beat a Washington State team by 12 points with 13 steals as they came from seven points down going on a 24-5 run to finish the game. A good test comes January 6th at Utah just five days before LSU opens conference play against division-rival Alabama. Solid play from Sr. G Garrett Temple and Fr. G Bo Spencer have led the Tigers.
Alabama is not much higher on strength of schedule holding down a #339 rank. PG Ronald Steele is back after missing last year due to knee injuries and is regaining his confidence and getting closer to his previous form that made him one of the top pg’s in America. McDonald’s All-American 6-9 JaMychal Green is learning and improving weekly. While the Tide went to the Maui Invitational and their game against D-2 host Chaminade technically counts as an away game, Bama hasn’t played a true road game yet. Warning signs include one of the ten worst assist to field goals made ratio (means a lot of dribbling and little passing), the 209th ranked effective fg%, a 67.6% FT%, and a poor rate in allowing opponents offensive rebounds. And remember, these numbers are put up at home, or a neutral court, against a very weak schedule. Bama appears to be a team to bet against.
Enjoy the season, college hoops is hard to beat!
Jim
