First, I have to vent about something that has bothered me for many years.  I cannot tell you how many customers of mine have totally discounted or completely ignored the value of getting a good number on a game. 

Why do I say this now?  Because I had the UNDER in the Boston-Atlanta game tonight.  Every offshore book listed at Vegas Insider had the lined total at 189 or higher, except at the sharpest offshore book available for US bettors to wager at, bookmaker.com.  They had the total at 188.5.  When somebody signs up fro a week or longer of picks from me I send out an email telling them how I grade my own plays.  I use bookmaker.com to grade my plays when I send the plays out.

Bottom line, if you had bet the UNDER at 189.5 or better you would have won the play.  If you had 188.5 or lower, you lost. 

I've had countless clients say they need to get my plays on a certain day by phone.  I have said I would have them ready by a certain time.  They said that was okay, they would pick them up hours later.  I stated the line might change, that never bothered them.  But, I guarantee you, if they lose by a half-point when they could have won by a half-point, I am the one who is blamed. 

Sorry, I despise customer apathy regarding getting the best number. 

Back to the game.  Carmelo playing Kobe closely 30 feet away from the basket with 5 fouls.  You know Kobe is going to get the close calls in all probability.  Anthony fouls Kobe.  Maybe not a foul, but why take the risk?  A very, very stupid play by Carmelo Anthony, one of the most overrated players in the NBA.  There is more to being a great player than scoring.  Maybe one day Anthony will wake up and realize that. 

Is anybody else tired of Stephen A. Smith?  The guy is full of rhetoric, is argumentative, and is way too loud.  Not many people fall into this category.  Rush Limbaugh comes to immediate mind.  It is very difficult for me to listen to Smith on the radio, I always search for another channel.

Saturday there were a couple of trends that applied to Denver and to Atlanta.  I released Denver as a premium pick and made Atlanta the free pick of the day.  I played the Nuggets heavier than the Hawks, I felt playing on Denver against the Lakers was a lower risk than going against the Celtics, one of the best defensive teams in the past 40 years in the NBA, with a below .500 team. 

Watching Denver and Atlanta play was like watching a team that cared about their future, Atlanta, and a team that couldn't wait to go on their summer vacation to Italy, Denver.  If I was a Nugget fan, or even worse, a Nugget fan who paid the high prices NBA teams demand of their fans to go to Saturday's game, I would be one pissed off patron. 

I have never seen a team in a more serious situation to have as little of focus and intenisty as I saw in Denver Saturday in Game 3 against the Lakers.  During the game, Carmelo Anthony is 2 for 10 from the field and the Nuggets are down by double digits.  Anthony puts up another brick and is smiling coming down court after the shot.  One of the TV announcers, Reggie Smith, a former NBA all-star, is incredulous in disbelief.  "How can he be smiling"?, Miller exclaimed. 

Apparently, along with other Nuggets, cause he doesn't give a damn.  Anthony may have well been saying, "Thank you Denver fans for your support, but the season is over."

Compare the Nuggets pathetic efforts to Atlanta beating the Celtics on Saturday.  The HAwks were a team that wanted to give their fans their moneys' worth.  Both Denver and Atlanta were off of back to back double digit losses, seeds 8 versus seeds 1. 

To paraphrase Senator Joseph Welch during the Army-McCarthy hearings in the 1950's, "Denver, have you no shame"? 

It appeared Tracy McGrady just ran out of gas.   He started settling for long jumpers late in the third quarter on.  Houston needs another reliable scoring option.  They have some very good defensive players in Battier, Chuck Hayes, and Scola, but none of them is a real scoring threat.  Battier is the only one of the three that does have a perimeter presence.  Dikembe is like Ben Wallace, a liability to a team that has trouble scoring.  I hate to use a cliche, but put a fork into Houston.

Well, the Suns need to call the game at halftime and leave and the Raptors should wait until the second quarter before showing up.  The third quarter of the Suns-Spurs game was hard to watch.  Shaq is showing his age and it is no longer an automatic when he gets a rebound or pass right under the basket. 

Nash cannot stay with Tony Parker.  If you move Raja Bell over, who is going to cover Manu?  Giricek isn't quick enough, that is one reason why he is no longer with Utah.  Parker right now is series MVP.  Nash also seems to be getting a little too relaxed with some of his passes. 

It will be interesting to see how Denver does taking Anthony Carter out of the starting lineup and puting former Missouri star Kleiza into it.  Kleiza does give them a lift off of the bench.  Sometimes that is needed during the game.  Bobby Jackson when he was with Sacramento brought instant energy to a game when he entered. 

You want to believe Detroit is going to crunch Philly.  However, they did this last year with Cleveland saying they would win when they had to.  Cleveland was in the Finals, not Detroit, last year. 

Al Horford of Atlanta showed he is a reckoning force of the future.  Can Johnson and Smith perform well enough to make this a game?  I use a database a bunch in my handicapping.  It says to take the OVER in the Hawks-Celtics game.  Tough doing that against such a great defense.

Good luck!

Jim K.

I have not been this anxious for the NBA Playoffs to begin in as long as I can remember.  Probably when I was growing up in Kansas City and the Kansas City-Omaha Kings made it to the playoffs.  They had one of the greatest players of all time that very few people have ever heard of, Nate Archibald.  Nate the Skate is the only person to officially lead the NBA in scoring and assists in the same year.  Oscar Robertson, the Big O, did it in 1968 but was not the official leader as they went by totals then, not game averages. 

Archibald is on the NBA's Greatest 50 Players of All Time squad.  All of this was pre-MJ and Byrd so not many people ever got to see Nate play. 

Doesn't look like many teams tanking.  Miami is playing NBDL guys, but the lines are so huge it is tough to play.  Seattle and Sacramento are the other two teams that I feel might tank some games at this time.  The Kings still have a chance to make it in the lottery.  I wrote an article about the tanking that went on last season, you might check in the "Handicapping Articles" page to see it.

Jim