I played the UNDER tonight in the Southern Miss - Boise State game.  I bet more on the UNDER in the first half more than than I did for the entire game as I believe both teams will try to establish a running game. If that does not work, then they will revert more to the pass. Considering both quarterback's skill level, I could see a pick-6, an interception for a touchdown, happening.

Also, we don't have to worry about Overtime with just a first-half UNDER. This is a strategy of mine I have used this year. With the reverting to the old time clock rule, we are seeing about 10 to 15 more plays in a game. Sometimes, especially more so in physically mismatched games, you will see lesser teams wear out allowing some easy fourth quarter scores.

24 is a very key number for betting on a total for a half.  21 is probably the second most popular number for half-time wagering.  I don't like betting OVERS for the first half, almost only UNDERS.

Good luck tonight!

JK

Texas A&M at Miami-FL:

The game will be the first road test of the year for the Aggies and only the second-ever meeting between the two schools.  Miami is just 3-8 in its last 11 games against ranked opponents and 2-9 ATS vs teams with a winning record.

Texas A&M can run the ball very, very well.  They have Hummer-sized Javorskie Lane and fleet-of-foot Mike Goodson.  The Aggie quarterback is tough Stephen McGee.  McGee is not a great pure passer but he did finally step it up in their last game versus Louisiana-Monroe throwing for over 200 yards for the first time this year.  Future NFL star tight end Martellus Bennett with his 6'7" frame should be grabbing his share of McGee tosses.

Miami's strength on defense is against the run and will obviously be challenged tonight.  They do have size on the defensive line and allowed only 116 yards against Oklahoma with a 2.6 yards per carry average. 

Miami quarterback senior Kyle Wright has regained his starting position but the position remains a Hurricane weakness.  Miami averages just 22 points a game, and is 99^th in the country in total offense.  Except for their pounding by Oklahoma, the Canes have played Marshall and Florida International. 

With such an anemic offense, I have a small lean to the UNDER tonight.  I believe A&M Coach Dennis Franchione will be conservative on the road looking for the running attack to wear down the Cane defense.  The humid weather and heat should not be a factor against the Aggies as they are used to such conditions in College Station, TX.

I also have a small lean to Texas A&M as Miami has been very offensively challenged.  The Aggies have more offensive weapons but the fact that they were outgained earlier this year by Montana State and Fresno State is a concern.  Also, A&M's poor showing over the years as a road underdog under Franchione and also in their first road game of the season is keeping me from making this a Premium Pick.

Watching the TCU-Air Force game, have a half-unit on the UNDER 42 & 43.  I had a bunch of stuff that said to take Air Force, but I also had some stuff that said go with TCU.  The macro version of my handicapping said TCU was in a great letdown situation after losing to Texas.  Handicappnig after the game is perfect, it's easy to say "I wanted to" or "I almost played...".  Sometimes, it is great to have the balls to ignore certain aspects of your methodology, but just as easily would it have put me on Air Force tonight, it put me on Virginia Tech last week, a terrible pick. 

What originally hurt was before it went into Overtime with 49 seconds left in regulation, TCU had just thrown an interception from the Air Force 21 yard line on first down with the score tied 17-17.  They were within an easy field goal, why go for six with less than a minute to go?  Well, the fact the TCU kicker, a 91% field goal kicker, clanged one off of the uprights in OT might be the answer.

We win our half-unit.  What an interesting game

 

The most improvement in a college football team comes between week 1 and week 2.  Of course I am making an assumption there is improvement.  A good handicapper is able to sniff out which teams are overrated, getting too much respect from the linesmaker and the public, and which ones are underrated.  Early in the season is the best time to uncover the incorrectly valued teams that can lead to getting off to a very profitable first few weeks. 

In the case of the University of Michigan, a team I went against this past week, there was no chance they would show improvement.  After going 11-1 last year, how do you think RB Mike Hart, QB Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham feel after bypassing last year’s NFL draft to come back their senior season to “win the national championship”?  The Wolverines should be stuck with the proverbial fork as the team’s dreams have been shattered.  Ann Arbor is on suicide watch.

The AP and the Coaches Polls both are giving Wisconsin too much credit.  At least both polls dropped the Badgers from fifth to seventh this week after their poor showing against UNLV as almost a four touchdown favorite.  I have been a UNLV season ticket holder for the eight years I have lived in Las Vegas and while this was the most inspired Rebel team I have ever seen perform in person, one has to remember this is a team that has only won two games each of the past two years.  

A redshirt freshman, Travis Dixon, is quarterbacking the Rebels as their highly touted USC transfer, Rocky Hinds, has been unable to return this year due to offseason knee surgery. 
This UNLV freshman passed for 258 yards completing 22 of 33 attempts, against the then-firth-ranked Badgers. 

The UNLV defense, which has numerous freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep rotation, held up very well while being overmatched physically.  The total yardage for both teams was fairly close and unlike the situation in many dramatic upsets or near-upsets, Wisconsin committed no turnovers.  While I love the fans of Wisconsin (they pump a lot of money into the Las Vegas economy on their visits out here), the Badgers will be a team I am looking to go against.

When I lived in Kansas City, I used to date a girl who graduated from Notre Dame.  Years ago she asked me to go with her to her college reunion.  The reunions at Notre Dame are kind of neat as the classes from every five-years are all invited to the same reunion so you get a wide-range of ages at the reunions.  While there were many prominent former Irish football players at the reunion, the guy I enjoyed the most was the late Leon Hart, the 1949 Heisman Trophy winner.  We sat at a dinner table with Mr. Hart and his wife.  He was a real character.  He holds the distinction of being the only lineman to win three National Titles in both college and the pros.  Hart  was the last and one of only two lineman ever to win the Heisman Trophy.  (yeah, I am a former lineman.  Granted, it was only at the high school level, but linemen relate to one another).

Sorry for the regression, just reliving fond memories. 

Well, enough blabbing about Notre Dame.  Let’s just leave it at South Bend, Indiana has joined Ann Arbor on the “don’t drink the Kool-Aid’ watch. 

Finding an undervalued team early is just as important as discovering the inflated expectations of
some teams.  When you can find both meeting head to head, you have the perfect storm.  Such an incident happened last week when South Carolina traveled to Athens, GA to play the Bulldogs.  The Gamecocks, a pick of mine last week, have one of the best defenses in the nation.  They have a very fine quarterback and a coach that is the master of revenge, Steve Spurrier. 

Georgia played Oklahoma State at home last week.  They handled the high-octane Cowboy offense very well.  But the fact remains, the Bulldogs had 12 first-time starters including eight on defense and are a young team.  Did Georgia deserve a close to top ten ranking with South Carolina not even in the Top 25?  Yes, it’s easy to state this after the results are in, but the fact remains that I took the Gamecocks because I felt the better team was the underdog.  

I also like to look at situational handicapping spots, Even though it is a small sample, a basic angle I uncovered is road  teams in game #3 that have been on the road the first two weeks and who are also on the road next week only cover at a 16.7% rate over the past six years.  This situation applies to San Jose State visiting Stanford this week.

Handicapping and sports betting is all I do for a living.  Over the past few years I have had more people, usually guys, tell me what a lucky guy I am.  Geez, if they knew half of the story.  I have had many professions over my lifetime, from stockbroker and commodities trader specializing in options and high-risk investments to working for an international software company to doing stand-up comedy for a couple of years.  That is worth a few chapters of a book on its own. 

I come from a family of workaholics.  My Dad was a controller for an international company and did taxes for people and small business for over fifty years.  He was always working.  He loved working in our yard at our home in Kansas City, a corner lot close to an acre in size.  Living in Las Vegas, I am frickin' estactic to have over a quarter acre and a corner lot with only one home on any side of our house.  We have prime real estate with a view of the Las Vegas valley that is hard to top.  But, I would trade my parents' KC lot any day for the postage stamp that I have now. 

My wife is a professor at UNLV.  I cannot tell you how proud I am of her.  She recently finished her third book on children's literature, it was released a couple of weeks ago.  It really is a cool book.  She is a very prominent voice in the international world of children's literature.  I know listing her accomplishments would be boring, please take my word that she is an amazing woman.  I am very competitive and she keeps me striving to get a "one up" on her.

Well, back to finishing with the picks.  I am very anal in doing my handicapping wanting to read every paper, examine every boxsore, do research ad nauseum.  As a professional sports bettor I bet many, many games.  I almost always bet them early.  I am looking for lines I believe will go in the direction I want them to go.  Then, after a few days, I will either keep the bets or buy them back looking for a middle.  It normally works well, however last week I got stuck with San Jose State +16 against Arizona State.  A bad loser. 

Well, Entourage is coming on HBO.  It's late and it is a big day tomorrow.  Thank you for reading.