Handicapping Articles

Four Teams on the Rise in 2009
By Paul Stone, Vegas Sports Authority

Arkansas - Last year, the Bobby Petrino era got off to a shaky start in Fayetteville as the Razorbacks narrowly escaped with victories over Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe in their first two games and then gave up a total of 101 points in ugly losses to national powers Alabama and Texas.

As the season progressed, however, Arkansas showed steady progress, capped by a momentum-building, season-ending 31-30 win over SEC West rival LSU.

Fast forward to 2009 and the Razorbacks have all of their key pieces back from last season's 5-7 edition, plus the notable addition of former Michigan quarterback Ryan Mallett, a 6-7 gunslinger who seems destined to be playing on Sundays in the not-too-distant future.

Eighteen returning starters; a crafty coach in his second season; and a monumental upgrade at the all-important quarterback position will see the Razorbacks bowling come the holidays.

Baylor - Like Bobby Petrino, Baylor head man Art Briles enters his second season at the helm of a Bear program which has been out-manned during its first 13 seasons of competition in the Big XII. And although the upper rungs of the conference ladder seem to be too crowded to accomodate any new faces, Baylor has undoubtedly shown marked improvement during Briles' short tenure.

And also like Arkansas, much of the reason for renewed optimism in 2009 centers around quality play under center.

While Mallett is more of a classic, drop-back NFL quarterback, the Bears' Robert Griffin compares more favorably to the new age of college quarterbacks who can hurt you with their arm and their legs.

Griffin-to-fellow sophomore Kendall Wright, who had 50 catches as a true freshman, is a combination which will be called often this season, while Baylor has three defensive players - tackle Phil Taylor, linebacker Joe Pawelek and free safety Jordan Lake - who are legitimate contenders for first-team all-conference honors.

LSU - One would expect the Bayou Bengals to rebound with renewed vigor and focus following last year's - by their standards anyway - subpar 8-5 showing. Much of what ailed LSU in 2008 related to its play at quarterback, but that will not be nearly as much of a concern this time around.

Jarrett Lee, who earned a lottery-like moniker, "Pick Six," and Andrew Hatch were out of place as quarterbacks of big-time Division I programs, but true freshman Jordan Jefferson showed glimpses of his significant promise during a late season audition which came about mostly by default.

If Jefferson continues to develop, LSU has an NFL-caliber tailback in Charles Scott and a Sunday kind of a wide receiver in Brandon LeFell. Meanwhile, mammoth Ciron Black is perhaps the best in the nation at the all-critical left tackle position and could be a Top 10 selection in the NFL Draft next April.

After six straight seasons of allowing less than 20 points per game, LSU's defense slipped to 24.2 points an outing last year, giving up more than 50 points in two games and allowing 31 points in each of its final three contests. Rest assured new defensive coordinator John Chavis will have the Tigers resembling more closely those units of seasons past.

Stanford - Down on "The Farm," head coach Jim Harbaugh has the Cardinal poised to brag about more than just SAT scores and mathematical theorems during 2009. Stanford has improved its averages in points scored and points allowed in each of the past three seasons and could have more of the same in store for this season.

Redshirt freshman Andrew Luck was one of the top quarterback recruits in the nation in February 2008 and the Texan (who is the son of former NFL QB Oliver Luck) will instantly provide a considerable upgrade under center.

Tailback Toby Gerhart is not flashy, but steady and more than capable after topping 1,100 yards on the ground last year.

Defensively, the Cardinal return 16 of their top 19 tacklers from one season ago and have far fewer holes than when Harbaugh took over prior to the 2007 season.

Four Teams on the Decline in 2009

Ball State - Mid-American Conference Ball State rode a wave of undefeated success before a late season swoon at the end. Now with MAC Offensive Player of the Year Nate Davis (3,591 yards and 26/8 TD/INT ratio) being likely replaced by an unproven redshirt freshman (Kelly Page), the Cardinals are a good bet to return to their middle-feeding ways.

In addition to the anticipated dropoff at quarterback, Ball State could be starting as many as six sophomores (or freshmen) on offense which should bring down their 34.9 points per game average.

Plus new head coach Stan Parrish, a long-time Ball State assistant, is no spring chicken at 62.

Missouri - Anytime your school loses its top three receivers - two of whom were high NFL draft choices - who combined for 264 catches, 3,080 yards and 30 TDs in a single season, it cannot be good news.

If that is not enough, the Tigers also said 'goodbye' to record-setting, three-year starting QB Chase Daniel who is making a strong bid to make the NFL's Washington Redskins as an undrafted free agent.

With so many new faces on offense (and a new offensive coordinator in David Yost), Missouri will not come close to matching their season scoring averages of 42 and 40 points the past two seasons.

Texas Tech - Mike Leach is absolutely one of the best coaches in all of college football. Especially when you consider he primarily must recruit players "left over" by Texas, Oklahoma and the other big boys. And Lubbock is not exactly America's top vacation destination.

However, it is too much, even for us, to ask Leach to pull off another miracle-type season on the South Plains.

The Red Raiders will probably find adequate replacements for all-time NCAA TD pass leader Graham Harrell (134 TD passes) and wide receiver Michael Crabtree (an NFL first-round draft choice who had 97 catches for 1,165 yards and 19 TDs last year), but those are once-in-a-lifetime type players.

Additionally, Tech must work three new starting offensive linemen into the lineup, while it also lost sack master McKinner Dixon (nine sacks in 2008) to grades.

Wisconsin - There is a disturbing trend in Madison these days. In Bret Bielema's first three seasons as Wisconsin's head coach, the Badgers' season wins have gone from 12-to-nine-to-seven.

What's in store for 2009? Maybe a break-even 6-6 season. If that's the case, you can be sure a lot of Badger faithful will be asking for new leadership at the top of their beloved football program.

Wisconsin has too many new faces in both of its interior lines as only two offensive starting lineman are back and just one member of the defensive front.

Overall, the Badgers' defense allowed 12.1 points per game in 2006. Then 23.2 in 2007. Last year the number rose to 26.5.

You get the picture...

Picking Winners in College Football
By Jim Kruger

Before any sports season starts that I am going to be betting on, I try to find as many angles as I can from any and all sources that I believe can give me an advantage in betting on the team that will cover the spread. Some handicappers look at the fundamentals of a team such as how a team blocks and tackles, stops the run, etc. Others look at situational aspects such as how a team, any team, does after a win as a road underdog and now they are favored. Others look at specific team trends, such as the bad ATS (against the spread) record Fresno State has had after a loss.

The bottom line is that it really doesn’t matter how one handicaps, all that matters is whether you are cashing tickets. I like to find some high level filtering approaches that help me put teams in early categories of “play on” or “play against”. Naturally, as a season transpires, teams can move from one category to the other.

In some sports, there is credibility in the premise if you can pick who is going to win the game straight-up, you will have a winning year betting. In college football last season, including bowl games, the team with the most points at the end of the game had a 565-202 record against the spread. Of course you must remember that any underdog that won a game outright obviously covered the number in that game. College football underdogs last season won games straight-up 23.1% of the time.

Last season there were 30 teams that covered the spread at a rate of more than 60% for the season including post-season play. Only five of those 30 teams, 16.7%, had a straight-up losing record. Two squads clocked in at .500 records, both 6-6 for the year. The combined SU record of these 30 teams was 275-128, 68.2%. Collectively, they beat the number 67.8% of the time, 257-122.

If teams with winning records do such a good job in beating the oddsmaker's line, do losing teams have a strong tendency to have a poor ATS mark? To quote the former governor of Alaska, “you betcha!”

Teams that finished with a below 40% ATS record for the 2008 campaign in college football only won outright 143 times out of 382 games, a 37.4% frequency. The rate that you cashed a ticket betting on these teams was even lower, a 30.2% ATS record. Of the 31 teams that fall into the “below 40% ATS category”, only 7 had winning records with one coming in with a .500 slate.

So, just being able to pick which team will win a game outright should help you increase your winning percentage betting on college football. As noted above, teams with winning records have a better shot at having a winning ATS season. And, just the opposite is true with losing teams dropping more games against the spread than they win. It would be advantageous if we could determine what a team’s final record will be in 2009. Is there a method to project what a teams’ won-loss record will be?

Obviously, one can put many, many hours into studying a team and evaluating their schedule to try to determine what their final record might be before the season kicks-off. This is very time consuming. There is a short-cut to help determine whether a team will win more or fewer games this season compared to their SU record last year.

First, note which teams’ won-loss record improved or worsened by three games or more from the season before. Looking at how teams did in 2008 compared to 2007, 44 of the 120 FBS schools won-loss records varied by three or more games between the two seasons. Starting with the 2003 season and marking each season’s record, there were some very interesting results.

If a team won three or less fewer games from the previous season, there is a very strong trend that they will improve their record the next season. Actual numbers show these teams that dropped down three or more wins from the previous season have the same or a better record 85.1% of the time in the coming season. Over the past four years, this has happened 63 out of 74 times. In this scenario, only 11 teams out of 74 have had a worse record the following year. Some of the teams that suffered a three game or more drop in wins last year are Tennessee, Michigan, and Central Florida.

On the flipside of the equation, when a team improves by three or more total straight-up wins from one season to the next, there is a trend definitely worth noting regarding how their won-loss record will be this year. After a three or more jump in the number of seasonal wins from the previous year, teams fail to improve their win total 80.3% of the time in the following campaign. Eighty-one teams have had a three game or more improvement since 2003, but only 16 of them had a better record the next year after such an improvement. Three of the 24 teams that had such a jump in 2008 and could fall in season wins this year from the previous season are Rice, Minnesota, and Ball State.

The stats and trends I have mentioned are more tools one can use in handicapping college football. The method of looking at the differential in straight-up wins from one season to the next can be beneficial for bettors who like to place wagers on a team’s season wins number. No matter how you do it, having a road map at the beginning of a season on how you believe every team will perform for the year is beneficial to building your bankroll.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Tendencies

By Jim Kruger, 3-22-09

The first week of the NCAA Tournament is in the books. We didn’t get to hear ACC-lovin’ Billy Packer refer to the Mountain West Conference as the “Big Mountain Conference” and I personally avoided any John Calipari whining. Round 1 brought ten upsets but round 2 saw all but 2 of those higher seeds vanish. With Purdue making the Sweet 16, the streak of a #5 seed advancing is now up to 17 years by my count.

This is the first time that only two teams lower than a 4 seed advanced to round 3. Purdue and #12 Arizona hope to make it 23 out of 25 years that a higher than a #4 seed makes it to the Elite 8. This is a very strong Sweet 16 with it being the first time that all #1, 2, and 3 seeds made it here. Surprisingly, this is only the third time since the current 64/65 team format that all #1 and #2 seeds are among the final 16.

Last Week’s Tendencies

Before looking at tendencies and historical data from the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8, let’s examine how some of the tendencies mentioned in my article last week about Round 1 and 2 turned out. I will be using the closing line and total for grading purposes. The first one mentioned was the Under is 21-9 in games where teams are laying 15 to 19.5 points. We had two games qualify in this spread range going 1-1. Our previously good trends for the Under in games lined in the 140’s and Over for 130’s matches both finished right about .500.

The #15 seed covering the spread 60.5% of the time and going under 70% was a double loser as the #2 seed covered three of the contests with the Over matching that record. Supporters of the #3 seed were happy as it improved its record to 29-19 with a 3-1 showing but split it’s totals plays, now 16-28 OU. Four seeds split their games, 26-20 ATS, and #5’s split their totals, 24-18 OU. We did have three outright #12 winners this year maintaining that slot’s reputation as being one of the most dangerous dogs for the outright upset.

Improving their ATS mark to 37-19 with a 3-1 showing was 6.5 to 9-point chalk. We didn’t keep up with the past 43.9% spread coverage rate going 3-3 on two-possession faves, -3.5 to –6.

Our worst performance came with the short favorites, pick’em to laying 3 points. In the past, they were beating the spread 59.7% of the time, 37-25. This year’s first round saw a rotten record of 2-6 be posted with USC and LSU being the only winners. However, the Over in this price range continued to be a money maker at 5-3 improving its mark to 40-25.

Last week I mentioned in the first six years of our study, 1998-2003, the #10 seed covered the point spread 14 of 23 times while winning 14 of the 24 games straight-up. However that record flip-flopped in the past five years with the #7 winning straight-up and covering the number in 15 of the 20 matches. We might be headed the other direction again as three #10 seeds beat their higher counterpart to advance to round 2 this year.

Round 2 tendencies started with double-digit favorites covering half of their four games to move that record to 21-14. Games with totals lined at 145 or higher continued their winning ways going 5-1, now 31-18. Moving their OU record to 36-21 were 6.5 to 9.5 favorites going 4-1 OU.

Going sharply opposite a former 36.1% ATS trend was betting against the higher seed when it is a short favorite, pick’em to -3. The low-chalk higher seeds went 5-1 in round 2, 18-24. The #1 seeds continued to go over the total more than not, 3-1, 28-15.
And, to cap off our look back, Ivy League schools are not 1-11 ATS in the first two rounds with Cornell’s lack of a win or cover.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Tendencies
Making it to the Sweet 16 for teams seeded lower than the #8 slot has happened only 13.3% of the time over the past 11 years, 27 teams out of 176. It gets even rougher for the Cinderellas to advance one step further, the Elite 8, as only 6 out of 88 teams were seeded higher than the midway number, 6.4%. Last year Davidson, behind the heroics of Stephen Curry, made it to the final eight.

The Sweet 16 has some good history to look at. Out of 88 games the past eleven years, the higher seed has won 63 of them, 71.6%. There have been ten games where the lower seed was the favorite winning 6 of those straight-up giving round 3 favorites overall a 65-23 SU record. The lower seed has covered the point spread 55.4% of the time, 46-37, and the Under happens with a 55.1% frequency.

One thing that really stands out in round 3 is that outright upsets are extremely rare once a certain number of points are laid. Any supporters of Xavier, Purdue, Arizona, or Gonzaga this year who are considering making a money-line bet on their team, might want to consider giving that money to charity or buy your spouse something nice with it. Since 1998 in the Sweet 16, underdogs of more than 5 points have a straight-up record of 2-37. By the time you read this article, Missouri might fall into that Titanic-like group as they are 4.5 underdogs at the time of writing this piece.

The two Davids that beat Goliath out of 39 tries were in 2002, when fifth-seeded Indiana edged the top seeded Duke by a point as a 13.5 point underdog, and in 2003, when the #3 Marquette Golden Eagles beat #2 Pittsburgh by three-points as a 6.5 point puppy.

In looking at games by line or total groupings, many of the result sets are fairly small so there is a question of validity of them. The only other tendencies in round 3 that show up based upon the point spread are on two-possession favorites laying 3.5 to 6 points. They haven’t done well against the number, 10-16, 38.5%, but their games have a lean to the Over, 17-11, 60.7%.

While the #1 seeds have a very nice 32-6 SU mark in round 3, they are a pedestrian 17-18 ATS.

Examining the lined totals, Sweet 16 games at 150 and higher (currently have two this year) have seen the higher seed only beat the number 36.4% of the time, 8-14. The Under cashes at a rate of 60.9%, 14-9, while games in the 130’s favor the Over, 13-8.

In conference tendencies, when the ACC is the higher seed, such as North Carolina and Duke are this year, the Under is 12-2, 85.7%. The Big 12 has done well straight-up as a higher round 3 seed, 13-3, (Oklahoma this year) but not as good when they are lower seed, 1-4 (Kansas and Missouri). The Big East has a record of 8-4 SU but only 2-9 ATS as the higher-slotted team. As the lower seed, just 3-14 SU (Villanova and Syracuse this week).

No need to talk about the SEC as they are the only power conference not represented. Out of the 88 Sweet 16 games that have been played since 1998, only nine times has the higher seed not been a team from one of the Big 6 conferences. This year Memphis from Conference USA qualifies in that capacity.

In the Elite 8 round, while last year the higher-seeded teams went 3-1 ATS, betting on the lower seeds since 1998 has been profitable, 27-15-2, 64.3%. More lucrative has been betting the Over in the Elite 8, 26-13-1 since 1999, 66.7%. In 1998, there were no totals on the games so we only have nine years of data to look at. Last year in the Elite 8 the Over went 3-1. The sweet spot to remember is when the higher-seed is favored by two to three-possessions, -3.5 to -9 points. Not only was this Over wager 3-0 last year, but betting the Over blindly in this spot has an incredible record of 19-2, 90.5%.

For wagering on the point spread in relationship to the lined total, betting the lower-seeded team when the total is 140 or higher has been profitable 15 of the 22 times we’ve seen it since 1999.

Looking at past history in doesn’t guarantee profits, but it can open your eyes to certain situations and give you an advantage over the uninformed sports bettor. Enjoy the tournament!

Come Win with the Squares!

By Jim Kruger, 1-6-09

I live within stumbling distance of the Green Valley Ranch Casino in Henderson, NV, the second largest city in Nevada directly adjacent to Las Vegas. I was in the GVR sports book Sunday standing in line at one of the ticket windows waiting to place a wager on one of the NFL wild card playoff games. The two guys behind me were talking rather loudly about who they were going to bet on. One guy had a very strong New York accent. When you move here, you quickly learn not many people who live in Las Vegas are from Las Vegas. In fact, the city has more U-Haul trailers per capita than any other city in the U.S.

Mr. New Yorker proudly proclaimed he was going “large, very large” on the Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia. He further spouted out that all the sharps were on Minnesota and how you had to go with the home dog. He added anybody who dared bet money on Philadelphia was as big of square as they come and deserved to lose their money. A couple of other labels were verbally espoused such as “trap game” and “linesmaker’s mistake”, stuff you read about in Internet forum posts by guys with monikers similar to “sportsinvestor” or “Mr. Point Spread”.

Now mind you, I have a chunk of money in my pocket getting ready to be placed at risk not on the Minnesota Vikings, the “sharps’ play”, but the Philadelphia Eagles at -3, the squares’ favorite wager of the day. Of course I’m sure my “chunk of money” is miniscule compared to my line compadre’s “large, very large” wager.

I had spent hours researching the wild card playoff games. I could tell you each team’s red zone rates on offense and defense, yards per play averages, quarterback ratings (again, offense and defense), schedule strengths, who was on the injury reports released Friday, etc, etc, etc. In my mind, Philly was the play.

I had an urge to casually mention out loud to no one in particular that home dogs this year in the NFL were 34-43 against the spread, a losing 44.2% proposition. In fact, only once in the last six years have home underdogs covered the point spread over 50% of the time. Of course, I guess all of the sharps in line putting their money on the Vikings knew this.

I told the ticket writer my wager in the lowest volume possible so the “sharps” behind me wouldn’t start laughing at my Philly wager while telling me I was throwing my money away. Once finished handing my money over, I then backed up a bit to watch a real pro in action. When I saw that the New York sharpie going “large, very large” was only laying down four Andrew Jacksons on the Vikes, I felt a lot, lot better. And it even got better when my fellow squares and I went to cash our Eagles’ tickets after the game.

I started thinking, are there some profitable “throwing away your money” type of bets in the NBA I could share with other squares? I decided to start with the basic “you gotta take the home dog premise”. I have heard many times that squares that bet road favorites in the NBA are broke before the playoffs.

I wanted to keep this fairly simple, after all, we squares don’t think very deeply, I don’t want anyone to hurt their brain. Surely, there were some good situations to bet against the home dog, or as I prefer to say it, betting on the away favorite. Besides side bets, I wanted to also look for totals bets that were winners.

As always, I started at a basic level. All of my data starts with the 2005 season and includes only regular season games. The Playoffs are an animal all by themselves which we will delve into more detail come April.

Looking at away favorites without any regard to what the line is, they have been covering the point spread 52.9% of the time. This is as basic as it gets, just a team on the road laying points. Don’t care what their rest is, whether this is a conference game, or anything else. Just an away favorite.

Next step was to break the games down by whether the match is against a non-conference foe or conference team and also if they are in the same division? The one category that was most interesting was the away fave in a divisional-game. Their record against the spread since the start of the 2005 season is a nifty 129-96, 57.3%.

Examining the Over/Under in these away favorite games, we come up with a money-making 59.1% play on the Under in our division matches, 136-94. We are getting this type of return by blindly betting road favorites in games against a division opponent. Handicapping the NBA was never faster or easier!

Onward to find more winners, we break down the games by point spread range. I prefer to do this by possession: a one-possession favorite is up to -3. A two-possession favorite is from -3.5 to -6. And obviously a three-possession one is -6.5 to -9. We’ll even look at -9.5 or higher faves.

You get an edge playing short-lined faves in non-conference games, 85-70 ATS, 54.8%. Nothing outstanding, but just showing a profit betting in the NBA is admirable. In those same non-con games, the Over hit on a 58.3% rate while the Under rang the victory bell 58.6% in divisional games.

Our first 60%+ winning situations came in betting on these road teams in divisional games, a 51-31 ATS record, 62.2%, when the away favorite was laying 3.5 to 6 points. Those particular divisional games also saw the Under win 55.2% of the time.

Moving up to the -6.5 to -9 range, the Under was the place to be not matter what type of game it was, 56.5% winners. The sweet spot for the Under again was in divisional games with a 67.4% success rate. We had a couple of winning spots in side bets on the favored road team at this price range, 55.3% in non-conference tilts and 56.5% in divisional matches.

In games with road warriors good enough to lay 9.5 points or higher, if it is in a conference game and you bet on them, you would have won 61.5% of the time. More easy money for us squares!

I started looking at additional basic qualifiers to use with our “squares bet on away favorites” premise. I did unearth some winning situations well worth keeping your eyes open for. Away favorites who lost their previous game beat the point spread 58.0% of the time, 138-100. An interesting twist for these faves off of a loss depends upon who they are playing. If they are favored against a non-conference team, the Over wins at a 56.5% pace. But, if this game is against a team from the same division, you better play the Under to achieve a stellar 65.8% ticket-cashing rate.

Teams sometimes will put more effort into the game scheduled before they have to play a tougher opponent. When our road fave is playing a non-conference home dog who won their previous game, we have a 57.3% winning side play, 94-70.

If a team knows their next game is against a lesser opponent and they are going to be favored again on the road, they still cover in their game laying points on the road before that next game 57.7% of the time, 86-63.

One of our best money-making wagers involving teams laying points on the road is in a back-to-back game, zero rest, against a divisional team. This situation provides a 47-27 Under trend, 63.5%.

Regardless of what certain people believe, sometimes what some people call a square bet actually happens to be a sharp bet. It turns out that betting NBA away favorites isn’t always a sucker bet. See you in the sports book!

Don’t Go Bowling for Fun – Prepare to Win
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

All the bowl games are set with a wide spectrum of choices for fans and bettors alike. With 34 choices spread out over 20 days, it is very easy to get caught up in having the desire to wager on every game. What anyone does is their business, however it is wise to take a step back and take this all in. One of the real advantages for bettors in this position is time, so make sure not to waste it.

It is best to start with fundamental handicapping to establish a base. Here is where you break apart what a team has done running and passing the ball and stopping the run and the pass. When doing this it is best to use the overall statistics as a snap shot and not have it become the whole picture. The reason is every team is essentially different in some aspects from what they were in September. Thus it is important to understand how any team has played from November until the end of the season. Along the same lines it is also wise to use the numbers for how a team played on the road. Here is a simple exercise you can do to seek strengths or weaknesses among the 68 teams competing in the bowl game. Using Excel spreadsheet or the trusty paper and pencil, put the match-ups together using the following categories, seeking the national rankings 1-119 and make sure to leave a column open next to number used:

*Yards rushing
*Points per game
*Total yards per game
*Yards passing
*Yards per point

Remember, defense may win championships, but offense wins bowl games. After you have completed this, next fill in how these various teams have performed on the road (Hawaii being only true exception) right next numbers you previously listed. The point of this is to find out how teams perform on the road compared to playing all games. If you find real disparity, now you have the makings of a fundamental difference in how a team plays and this should be duly noted. Repeat the process for defensive numbers.

The reason I listed running yards first, is I feel it is the single most important number in fundamental handicapping for bowl games. Being able to run the ball or stop the run is about desire and goes to the very core of the game. The minimum layoff any team will have is Navy, who is playing just two weeks after last game and Ohio State will once again have the longest layoff, having last played on December 22. To execute the passing game, timing and repetitiveness are the most important factors. With these types of layoffs, it is easy to get stale no matter how hard you practice, as game speed is far different than practice. The running game is about getting off the ball and knocking somebody down and a runner willing to hit the hole with abandon. Of course skill is required; however a rough and tumble attitude will carry a team a long way.

While throwing out words like desire and attitude, this is another large component in looking at bowl match-ups. What teams are excited to go to a bowl game and what teams are “settling” for the bowl experience?

Wake Forest ended up with just a 7-5 season and a revenge game would seem to be a motivator having lost to Navy already this season, but if you didn’t respect them the first time, why would the Demon Deacons now? South Florida plays in the new St. Petersburg Bowl, not far from home, but is that enough of a reason to be charged up after losing four of last five contests facing 6-6 Memphis? Other teams that could be flat emotionally are Missouri off two bad losses, LSU with three straight defeats and a national championship plays in the Chick-A-Fil Bowl in a virtual home game for Georgia Tech. Can Texas Tech and Alabama overcome initial losses late in the season and beat hungry quality opponents?

Other schools might be genuinely excited about bowl assignments. Arizona will have first bowl experience in a decade and not that far from home in Las Vegas. California closed the season with 4-2 record and plays in nearby San Francisco against Miami-Fl, who lost last games and might bring 50 fans plus alum that live in the Bay Area. Rice will charged up, playing in home city at the Texas Bowl and having just second bowl experience since 1949. Mississippi goes bowling for the first time since 2003 at the Cotton Bowl and Cincinnati plays in first major bowl game in school history as Big East champions.

Another factor to consider is strength of a conference. This year, much like the national scene, it was hard to pick a clear conference or two that stood above the rest. The SEC always gets all the love, but beyond Florida and Alabama, clear weaknesses were exposed in and out of conference play. In fact five of the other six teams from this league are underdogs in their respective games. The Big 12 was all over prime time having unprecedented talent at the quarterback position, including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and runner-up Colt McCoy. The conference ended up with five of the top nine scoring teams in the country, which also means we all will find how good or bad those defenses were against teams from other leagues. The Big East was bullied in non-conference play and is unlikely to draw much action from bettors. The Big East was actually rated ahead of the Pac-10 in the Sagarin ratings; however that takes into consideration all teams in the league. The Big East had Syracuse to drop their rating, while the Pac-10 had the twin Washington universities to lower there figures. Studying the lines, the lowly Pac-10 is favored in four of their five bowl games and the only underdog is Oregon, who scores 155 points in last three outings.

The Big Ten secured seven slots, mostly because they travel well to get out of bad weather and only Iowa is presently listed as favorite among the group. If you want a shocker, try this on, the aforementioned Sagarin Ratings have the ACC as the top conference in the country. That is a crazy notion, considering they sent the team with the worst record (9-4) Virginia Tech to a BCS Bowl. Nonetheless, the ACC had the best non-conference record among all leagues and is favored in five of its nine post-season conflicts.

One league you will see a great deal is Conference USA, with six teams, likely assuring five or six Over plays on the total, being an offense first – defense second, football conference. The Mountain West Conference had one of their better years in recent memory, with three teams going being Top 25 material most of the season, with 12-0 Utah the strongest. Of the five teams invited to play ball, only TCU is a favorite in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Other points to consider are quarterback play. All the Big 12 teams will have a leg up in this area, being superior in this category. As it turns out, that is among the reasons why the SEC has so many underdogs this bowl season. Rice with Chase Clement, Rutgers with Mike Teel and Nevada with Colin Kaepernick, all deserve an extra look, because these quarterbacks have proven themselves all season. Conversely, expecting Miami-Fl, Maryland and Connecticut to come from behind should they trail by 10 points in their games might be asking too much.

Another point to follow is betting strategy. Most bettors prefer favorites, and a select group will love to play underdogs, both strategies are flawed. The bowls are essentially no different than the regular season. In the last three years of bowl games, the straight up winner is 70-20-2 against the spread, winning 77.7 percent of the time. This points to the simplest and at the same time most complex answer- determine the winner of the game and the money will come to you.

Lastly check out websites relating to the teams in specific games about two weeks prior to the bowl. From informational standpoint, the investigative handicapper can often find nuggets relating to the goals of a coach in a bowl game. If the game is a reward for the season, sometimes those teams come in loose and unfocused. If a coach like say Brian Kelly of Cincinnati is in charge, he is all about demands and pushing his team and will likely have them more focused.

If you have had good, bad or great season in wagering on college football, utilize the time wisely and finish the season with a flourish, loaded with the right information.

How Sports Bettors Enjoy Black Friday

By Red Wydley, 11-26-08

While watching television this week and starting Brooke Burke withdrawal on Dancing with the Stars, I saw some ridiculous store is opening at 4:00 am Friday morning to get my business. The only retail business I’m doing at that time of the day is at a 24-hour Denny’s or Micky D’s after carousing the night before. My only goal is to wake up in time to place a few bets on football and basketball before the first game starts.

While the few remaining people that actually have a couple hundred dollars in their saving accounts and about the same left on credit card limits, goes out to spends the rest, with the knowledge the new year could bring unemployment, you like me don’t have a care in the world other than making sure the TV works, there’s beer in the fridge and three pounds of turkey your mom or relative sent home for the weekend is still cold.

Their might not be a more appropriately termed expression than playing in “the losers bracket”, on the day after Thanksgiving at 10:30 am Eastern in Orlando, in the Old Spice Basketball Classic. This follows from playing basketball ON Thanksgiving. (I wonder if you get the Old Spice gift pack swag for showing up) I’ll probably pass on that and get ready for West Virginia and Pitt in the backyard brawl. This will be a good game and StatFox told me they have already written about that game, so I’ll move on.

At 12:30 Eastern on Game Plan or if you live in the South somewhere, the Egg Bowl will be played. For those unfamiliar, this is Mississippi State vs Mississippi. In case you haven’t read or heard this, how they came up with the name Egg Bowl was from a trophy they came up that was egg-shaped to present after the game to stop fighting between the fans of each team, that’s nuts. Nothing nuts about Houston Nutt taking Ole Miss to first bowl game since some quarterback named Eli followed his old man there in Oxford. I like that the Rebels have won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and are 6-0 ATS in November the last few years.

At 2:30 Eastern, CBS turns on the way-back machine and has Don Criqui and Dan Fouts do the LSU at Arkansas contest. Both announcers are well past their prime, which this year is true of the Tigers and Hogs. Remember how were told all the speed the SEC has and this is the best conference known to mankind. If it’s so special, how come a team supposedly as powerful as LSU has only held Appalachian State, North Texas and Tulane to less than two touchdowns? I talked to a SEC scout about two weeks ago and he said Arkansas definitely doesn’t have the same talent as the last few years, but in his eyes, the Razorback players don’t play nearly as hard for Bobby (vagabond) Petrino. I know Bookmaker.com has LSU as 4.5-point favorites and I like the fact Miles minions are 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite.

At about 3:30E on ABC, two Big 12 teams who used to sit at the big table for the holidays, will meet when Colorado travels Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Once the Big 12 was formulated, this became the marquee matchup in the Big 12 North, with these two schools having battled for Big 8 titles in the late 1980’s and early 90’s. Both are trying to make a comeback bigger than the Sex Pistols. Nebraska is 18-point favorite in this meaningless game and I’ll bite with the Children of the Corn 18-6 ATS in home games off two straight wins against conference rivals. I’ll also back the Huskers since the defense, though still bad by Blackshirt standards, had 65 painted on them in Boulder last year on this day.

Did you know they are playing they are playing the preseason NIT championship at 4 Eastern on Friday? Can’t figure that out, but will have to keep flipping channels while opening more adult beverages and stuffing face with leftovers. (Is it me or is turkey like chips the day after Thanksgiving)

I have to admit it, I can not stand Fresno State coach Pat Hill and I’m looking forward to Boise State blasting them into the next universe commencing at 6 Eastern on ESPN also (2). Seriously, have you ever heard or seen a coach who puts more emphasis on big non-conference games than winning a league title! This is his 12th year in Raisin Country and he tied for first in the WAC twice in his tenure and nothing since 1999. Yet he gets all these accolades for beating the occasional BCS team or coming oh so close. When Hill first took over at Fresno State, he said he wanted to build a program like Florida State’s. In the end he has, mediocre. The Wussdogs have been outscored by 87 total points in their last three trips into Boise. With the Broncos 9-1 and 8-2 against the spread in their last home game and gorgeous 20-4 ATS as conference home favorite by 28 or less, I’ll back Boise.

By 9:30E, I’ll be really bloated, looking more like Micky Rourke and catch a little of the UCLA and Arizona State game. I’ll probably be asleep before the first quarter is over, but I’ll rest comfortably knowing UCLA is 10-2 UNDER after playing three straight Pac-10 games.

This whole Black Friday thing is way overrated; I’ve got a great day planned.

Early NBA Trends That Make Money
By Jim Kruger

I’m not a handicapper that likes to wait for two or three weeks into a basketball season before I even start betting. There are too many good opportunities early on that you are letting slip through your fingers. As of the writing of this article, most teams have played three games. The Lakers, Houston, and New Orleans are looking like top-seed playoff teams in the West, all with 3-0 records. Toronto is 3-0 and Detroit and Atlanta are the only other undefeated teams in the East at 2-0.

The Lakers crushed the Portland Trailblazers by 20 points in their home opener which saw Portland’s Greg Oden go down injured, supposedly for only two to four weeks. Oden’s durability was questioned during pre-draft physicals in 2007 when some red-flags were raised about certain parts of his body, most importantly his knees. He sat out all of last year after undergoing micro-fracture surgery and also missed part of his freshman season at Ohio State with torn ligaments in his right wrist. Will he ever play even 50 games in a season? Will he turn into Ralph Sampson? Will he be more fragile than Cloris Leachman on “Dancing with the Stars’?

The Hornets Chris Paul and David West are both averaging over 20 points and new #1 sub, James Posey formerly of the Celtics, is averaging over 28 minutes per game. The other 3-0 West team, Houston, has beaten Dallas and also-rans, Memphis and Oklahoma City. Four of their next five opponents, including the Lakers, Suns, and Celtics, will test the Rockets.

In the East, Toronto has been led by Chris Bosh’s 28 points per game average. Boston is 2-1 and has not been very efficient offensively such as shooting 34.6% from the field in their loss to the Pacers. Atlanta could surprise people even more this year than their playoff team did last year. They have beaten two of the better teams in the East, Philly and Orlando, mainly by playing excellent defense. Scoring machine Joe Johnson has averaged 30 points.

After 6 days of regular season games, the defenses are ahead of the offenses. Overall, the Over/Under for the season is 14-27 with home favorites only 11-22 OU. If a game has a lined total over 200, the OU is 3-10. Games with totals in the 190’s aren’t that much better at 5-12. Different patterns and situations occur during certain times of the season in the NBA. Every team starts off on an equal foot at the beginning of the season. Teams are usually fairly healthy and the daily grind and wear and tear of a long season coupled with extensive travel hasn’t set in yet. Most teams have aspirations of making the playoffs and nobody has been eliminated.

Obviously, the NBA is a very situational league to handicap. There are games every day of the week, including Christmas! I use a database where I have hundreds and hundreds of queries stored which run nightly popping out the results every morning. There is no way anybody could remember even a smattering of these trends to use in handicapping the NBA daily.

However, let me share a very easy trend to remember and to spot that is active the first three months of the NBA season. Since 2004, this trend has been winning 61.8% of the time. All you do is play the Under the lined total in a game after a team has won a close game by 3 points or less at home. That trend has a record of 141-87. Not bad pocket change.

Many trends you can improve on the past winning percentage with an additional qualifier. After that close home win in our trend above, if the victorious squad is still at home, the Under is now good 66.4% of the time. However, a really great spot to bet the Under is when that game is being played in November, you will be cashing 75% of your tickets! That’s one way to help pay that adjustable-rate mortgage payment!

A basic trend good for the first month that puts cash in your pocket almost exactly 65% of the time over the past four years is pretty easy to follow. If a team lost their last game on the road and is now playing a team that just won on the road, take the Under! So many of the trends that I follow are that simple. What is nice about this one is it has been active approximately 23 times in each November the past four seasons.

Big favorites many times have profitable trends that can be found. Since 2005, in the first month of the season, double-digit home favorites playing a division rival are 3-17 O/U. That’s all there is to it. That trend has been active four times in 2008 having gone Under twice with the Houston Rockets and once when the Jazz were hosting the Clippers. The one losing game that went Over the posted total was super-fast tempo Indianapolis Pacers at Detroit.

Another first month of the season trend that is a little tougher to remember, but one that is highly profitable with a 76.5% win rate the past seven years, is to play for a team to go Over a lined total in the 180’s when they are off of a road win of twenty points or more.

A little more complicated trend that rewards you with good results playing against the spread as well as picking the right side on totals is highly profitable for the first three months of the season. You play on a team as well as the OVER if that team has won two straight games on the road and is now at home with a lined total in the 190’s. The results since 2004 are 20-8-2 ATS and 23-7 OU.

There are other trends that are month specific in the second half of the season, especially in the last several weeks of the regular season. I will highlight some of those in a few months.

To quote Ben Franklin, or maybe it was Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal, “the trend is your friend”.

Big 12 versus SEC – Who’s Better?

The SEC is the acknowledged best conference in college football this decade. In fact the discussion has changed from the first part of the millennium from what is the best league, to who is second behind the Southeastern Conference? The Big Ten resembles some of its states, Ohio and Michigan are losing population base, and college players are not as interested in attending most of these schools as in decades ago. The Big East will rise up now and again, but never be a year after year power. The ACC is a basketball conference, adding Boston College and Miami-Fl. has brought zilch to the league’s prestige or the overall results, though Virginia Tech is a big plus, but only as long as Frank Beamer is there is my guess. Pac-10 is down this year, but they’ll be back as soon as they restock the quarterback positions.

That leaves the Big 12 as the only true contender. Though the final results won’t be in until after the bowl games, these conferences are not as far apart as one might think.

Since 2000, Florida and LSU have combined to be the kings of college football three times. The Big 12 has had its stalwarts in Oklahoma and Texas, winning the BCS trophy twice and the Sooners played in the title game two other times, losing both.

I went back and looked at each teams and league’s non-conference record since 2003 and the results were mildly surprising. (Bowl games excluded)

SEC 191-59 76.4 percent

Big 12 197-67 74.3 percent

The SEC will have a chance to widen this margin since they schedule so many non-league games late in the season or have regional rivalries (Florida- Florida State, Georgia –Georgia Tech), still leaving 15 non-conference games to be played, while the Big 12 has the more traditional approach and has completed their schedule.

For the most part, both leagues schedule beatable teams out of conference and generally are medium to extra-large favorites in most instances. The SEC is well-known for digging up what is now referred to today as FCS schools, to beat the daylights out of, but the Big 12 has actually played more of these guaranteed winners, (49-43) over the last six seasons. Against the spread in non-conference action the two leagues are extremely close.

Big 12 118-106 52.5 percent

SEC 107-101 51.4 percent

One of the beauties of college football is the contrast of how conferences play the same game. The Big 10 has been known for big strong players who are not particularly fast across the board. The Pac-10 has been noted for quarterbacks and skill position players.

The Big 12 has only been around since 1996, with its roots in the Southwest Conference, which was a known as running league. The fundamentals have been altered in recent years to be more offensive-minded. How this occurred was at the lower levels of the conference, schools like Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were likely to never get the quality of athlete a Texas or Oklahoma would year in, year out. Thus the coaches that have been hired were all offensive by trade, taking the approach of competing by scoring, as compared to defending. This method has seen the Big 12 attract far better talent at quarterback and skill positions then in the past, in terms of league depth.

The SEC is like a video game on fast forward. The amount of speed is astonishing on both sides of the line of scrimmage. In this conference, with so much speed on offense, coaches have to have defensive players that can be disrupters and halt the speed they are facing. This has changed the Southeastern Conference into more of a defensive-first league. To illustrate this point, review the year to year figures of the Top 20 teams in total offense and total defense from these leagues.

2004-Top 20 Offenses

Big 12 (4) Texas Tech- Texas- Oklahoma-Texas A&M

SEC – none

2004 Top 20 Defenses

Big 12 (2) Oklahoma – Missouri

SEC (5) Alabama –LSU- Auburn-Georgia- So. Carolina

2005-Top 20 Offenses

Big 12 (2) Texas-Texas Tech

SEC – none

2005 Top 20 Defenses

Big 12 (3) Kansas- Texas- Oklahoma-

SEC (5) Alabama – LSU- Tennessee- Florida- Georgia

2006-Top 20 Offenses

Big 12 (5) Texas Tech- Missouri- Nebraska- Okla. State- Texas A&M

SEC (2) LSU- Florida

2006 Top 20 Defenses

Big 12 (1) Oklahoma

SEC (4) LSU- Florida- Georgia- Auburn

2007-Top 20 Offenses

Big 12 (7) Texas Tech- Missouri- Okla. State- Kansas- Nebraska-Texas-Oklahoma

SEC (2) Florida- Arkansas

2007 Top 20 Defenses

Big 12 (1) Kansas

SEC (4) LSU- Auburn- Georgia-Vanderbilt

2008-Top 20 Offenses (year-to-date)

Big 12 (7) Texas Tech- Missouri-Oklahoma- Okla. State-Texas- Kansas- Nebraska

SEC -none

2008 Top 20 Defenses (year-to-date)

Big 12 -none

SEC (7) South Carolina- Alabama-Auburn-Georgia-Florida-Kentucky-Tennessee

It’s abundantly clear the difference in the two leagues this season, the quarterback position. In 2008, the Big 12 returned 11 of 12 starting quarterbacks from a season ago, setting the table of success in this conference. Names like Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing and Graham Harrell and others all returned, it stood to reason this would be a more offensive league, especially when it came to throwing the ball. A check of the top 50 quarterbacks in passing yards shows the Big 12 having seven in the top 20 and nine overall. The first visible signal caller throwing the ball from the SEC is Mathew Stafford of Georgia at #25, with a total of three overall. (Heisman winner Tim Tebow is 69^th)

Anytime you have a good quarterback in the college game you have a chance to win. Much like the professional football, the quarterback position is taking on greater importance. He’s has to read multiple defenses, run the option well enough to be a threat and throw with accuracy. A top notch thrower on a team with any sort of defense can be a threat to cover the spread. He can lead his team to victory as an upset winner, or provide that backdoor cover late in the game. This is why I believe this year the Big 12 is on par with the SEC.

In the last five years, the Big 12 has held their own against the SEC in regular season matchups. Overall they are 6-4 straight up and 6-3-1 ATS, including 4-2-1 against the spread on the road.

Bowl games have been a different story and this year more than ever might be most telling. In the last five seasons, the SEC has a decided edge at 7-3 SU and ATS record in the post-season.

Don’t assume the SEC is the best just because of history, since if we assumed everything, the price of gas should be less than half of what it was in May, because the price of a barrel of oil is today, right?

By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com 10-21-08

Betting on NFL Week 1

By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

The opening weekend of the NFL season has arrived and for those us that wager on the NFL, it is a welcome sight. One of the more intriguing games would not have been an after thought a month ago, now the Jets and Miami will get serious play with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms announcing with delicious quarterback matchup. Division games grab everyone’s attention right from the start and Jacksonville at Tennessee and Tampa Bay at New Orleans are engaging wagers right out of the box. Later in the afternoon, Dallas sets sail for what they are convinced is Super Bowl run and Cleveland tries to build on 2007 success, despite failing to win in the preseason. Betonline.com provides the opening week numbers enjoy.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (Dolphins +3, 36)

Of the nine early games on the NFL slate for Sunday, Jets-Dolphins stands out by a mile despite the fact there are three other divisional matchups. Nowhere else can such a storyline be found, with Brett Favre making his debut for Gang Green and facing the man he replaced in Chad Pennington. The last time the Jets came close to winning the AFC and reaching the Big Game, in 1998, their head coach was Bill Parcells. Number Four will try to duplicate what many before him have done; putting together 13-4 ATS record in Miami.

Parcells begins his inaugural season as president in Dolphin-land.

Like he did when he took over on the Jets’ sideline, Parcells has yeoman’s work to do. The 2007 Dolphins were the seventh team in league history to finish with a 1-15 (5-9-2 ATS) record, and they have only 20 wins over the last four seasons, managing to cover just 39 percent of the time over this period. Clearly they’re a team in transition. The first big decision for rookie head coach Tony Sparano—handpicked by Parcells from Dallas—was made for him when Pennington signed a two-year contract less than 48 hours after his release from the Jets.

New York holds a 45-38-1 lead in the all-time series.

Keys to the Game

The Jets are 8-0-1 anywhere they have played Miami lately, which means Favre must play well to have this streak continue. Jets defensive coordinator Bob Sutton will play chess with his former quarterback and will likely challenge him to throw long out-patterns and deep to beat the Flyboys. The Fins have been an amalgamation and are 2-5 ATS home underdogs. They will need Pennington to do what he does best, move the chains and control the clock with safe passes. If Miami can do this, they will have a chance to improve on 8-2 ATS mark as AFC East dogs the first three weeks of the season.

Houston at Pittsburgh (Steelers -6, 43)

In order to become the first team to capture back-to-back AFC North titles, Pittsburgh must overcome the toughest schedule the NFL has to offer. Its opponents in 2008 had a winning percentage of .598 in ’07, so nothing will come easy for head coach Mike Tomlin’s squad, including in Week 1 when Houston visits Heinz Field. Pittsburgh has reached the playoffs in five of the last seven seasons and is three years removed from a Super Bowl championship, while the Texans remain in search of their first-ever postseason berth. The Steelers are 35-16 ATS as 3.5 to 7-point home favorite, including 5-1 against the oddsmakers the last two campaigns.

Houston’s offense should be more consistent in its second year with Matt Schaub at the controls, though head coach Gary Kubiak indicated during the preseason he wants to avoid a pass-heavy offense. Schaub had some bright moments during the team’s 8-8 campaign and passed for 2,241 yards and nine touchdowns with nine interceptions while missing five games. It’ll be up to the running game to make Kubiak’s offensive plan come to fruition. Pittsburgh’s defense will provide a litmus test for a group still led by Ahman Green. Chris Brown is more than capable of pushing Green for the full-time job, and rookie Steve Slaton has a world of talent for a team that is 5-10 ATS as a road underdog the last two years.

Keys to the Game

Houston must establish a running game against the Steelers solid front. This better fits Schaub’s skill set, opening up Andre Johnson and others to throw to. At the same time, the Texas front must slow down Pitt’s rushers or they could be in for long afternoon. The defensive front is capable; it’s a matter of execution. Pittsburgh will try to free Willie Parker on the perimeter and gash Houston. The defense couldn’t get off the field at the end of last season and must do better job on third downs. The straight up winner of Houston games in September is 18-2 ATS. Also of note, with total at 43, the Texans are 10-0 OVER if both teams score 20 or more points.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Saints -3, 43)

Jeff Garcia’s streak of playing for five different teams in as many seasons has come to an end as he embarks on a second straight year as Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback. The 10-year veteran led the Bucs to the NFC South title in 2007, with a remarkable touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23-to-6 along with 13 wins in 19 games as a starter over the past two seasons. Garcia will lead a Bucs squad that has covered five in a row in Bayou Country, winning outright four times.

Expectations for New Orleans in 2007 were through the Superdome roof after they played for the NFC championship the previous year. A 0-4 start sealed the Saints season, as they plodded to a 7-9 (6-10 ATS) finish. A couple of bold offseason deals helped the Saints address a few glaring needs. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma will bolster an already solid run defense that ranked in the upper half of the NFL, while tight end Jeremy Shockey provides a much-needed additional target for quarterback Drew Brees. New Orleans believes they helped themselves through the draft taking DT Sedrick Ellis and CB Aqib Talib. The Saints are a mere 3-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.

New Orleans leads the all-time series by a 19-13 margin.

Keys to the Game

The Buccaneers Gaines Adams will have the job of being a mercenary going after Brees all day. To be most effective, Brees needs passing lanes, if he is constantly under pressure; passing game sinks for New Orleans. If the Saints can’t protect Brees they will fall to 4-13 ATS as NFC South home favorite. Jon Gruden will want to control tempo offensively, having Garcia throw short passes and set up running game. The Saints need to stuff Bucs backs at the line of scrimmage and make Garcia a pocket passer, which is not his strength. Oddsmakers are not sold on New Orleans despite improvements, keeping them as standard three point choice. Saints are 10-22 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (Titans +3, 36.5)

Tennessee opened last season with a three-point victory in Jacksonville, and this year the Titans are hosting the Jaguars in Week 1 as they try to extend their slim lead in an all-time series that stands at 14-12. If recent history and this year’s preseason is any indication, expect a defensive slugfest here with one big play likely serving as the difference. The Titans cracked 30 points only twice last season, while the Jags did so five times including the playoffs. These teams fit a solid system that is 47-20, 70.1 percent. Play Under on home teams against the total, who were a marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record, in conference games.

Both teams possess dynamic backfield’s that could tilt the outcome in their favor. Jacksonville’s backfield tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for nearly 2,000 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns and averaged about five yards per carry as a whole. LenDale White led Tennessee with 1,110 yards and scored seven times. Rookie Chris Johnson has all the tools to be a serious factor. And don’t forget the legs of quarterback Vince Young, who will try to put a lackluster 2007 behind him. The Jaguars are 5-12 ATS since 2002 as away favorites, with the Titans 10-2 ATS versus AFC South opponents.

Defensively both added new players which they hope will help them move even deeper into the playoffs. The Jaguars are 8-1 ATS in last nine openers.

Keys to the Game

The Jaguars number one job is to stop the run after Tennessee gouged them for 282 yards in first meeting of 2007. Containing an even quicker and faster back like the rookie Johnson is imperative to winning on the road. Vince Young needs to find rhythm at the start of games, not sometime during them. He needs to have better mechanics to improve accuracy or Jacksonville gangs up on the run daring Young to pass. David Garrard was special last season, can he do it again. Expect both teams to trade helmet paint and keep in mind straight up winner is 24-2 ATS.

Dallas at Cleveland (Browns +5.5, 49)

Two teams with a bitter taste because of how 2007 ended will hook up in one of the more interesting games in Week 1, as Dallas travels to Cleveland for the first time in 17 years. Nobody predicted last season’s emergence of the Browns, who won 10 games but failed to qualify for the playoffs due to the tiebreaker procedure. The goal this year is to play football in January, but they’ll have to overcome a much tougher schedule as well as the pressure that comes with higher expectations. On the hot seat at this time a year ago, head coach Romeo Crennel signed a contract extension and he’ll try to get his defense on par with an offense that went from one of the worst to one of the best behind quarterback Derek Anderson, and 1,000-yard receivers Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, and 1,300-yard rusher Jamal Lewis. Oddsmakers will be on the look out for the Browns who were 12-4 ATS last year.

The Cowboys, off a division title but yet another crushing playoff defeat, have as much talent as anyone and are a hot futures wager to reach the Super Bowl. Offensively, few teams will be able to match up with Dallas, and that includes the Browns. No matter who’s watching from a skybox seat, quarterback Tony Romo is worth the price of admission and perhaps bound for even bigger things after passing for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns. Terrell Owens caught 15 of those scoring tosses, thus marking the seventh time in his career he cracked double digits in touchdown receptions. Dallas is below average 5-7 ATS as road favorite since 2000.

Keys to the Game

When Dallas has the ball, first down will dictate what should happen. If the Cowboys have manageable second down situations, the playbook is wide open against less than scary Cleveland secondary. If newly acquired Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams control the line of scrimmage, advantage Browns who are 5-1 ATS as home dog vs. NFC. Derrick Anderson suffered concussion in second preseason game and has to know the Cowboys will be coming after to him to see if he’s jumpy in the pocket. If Anderson has happy feet, Dallas moves to 22-12-4 as single digit favorites.

Understanding Baseball’s Magic Number 4
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com 7-18-08

The major league baseball All-Star break is a welcome relief for many, a time to take a few days off to stretch the mind, offer a few more simple pleasures and generally take it easy. For others, the void is an unwelcome interruption from the daily grind of churning out numbers. Having studying numbers with regularity at least since April, if not dating back to November when the NBA season started, this chasm is a break that throws off the kismet of where a sports bettor expects to end up.

For those of us that fit the latter group, a healthy exercise is to reflect where we have been and where we are going. This season to date in major league baseball, 4.5 has been the number, this is what all teams have averaged either scoring or allowing in 2008. Since half-numbers of course are impossible to determine outcomes, decided to choose what is the most talked about number in the media these days –four- like the one Brett Favre has worn.

For starters, let’s review the division leaders or those who are very close. The Los Angeles Angels have held opponents 62 times to four runs or less among its 95 games (65.2 percent) and not surprisingly are tied for the best record in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay are in a dogfight in the AL East and each has held opponent to four or fewer runs 56 times. (Rays just once in seven-game losing streak) Division leaders out of Chicago, the White Sox and the Cubs, have held opponents to four runs or less 55 and 54 times respectively.

The importance of this figure is shown by the results of the other division leader, Arizona. When the D-Backs started 20-8, 19 times (67.8 percent) they held the opposing team to four or fewer runs. Since then, that percent has fallen to 47.7, as only 32 times in the next 67 contests have the Snakes held opponents below this number, in part, accounting for 27-40. With Arizona’s lack of hitting receiving so much attention in slide, aside from All-Stars Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre at best.

How important is this stat as it relates to teams having winning streaks? Consider the New York Mets as the most recent example. The Mets have won nine in a row, to catapult back into the NL East race. They are 11-2 in last 13 encounters, surrendering more than four runs twice. Compare this success with what it’s taken in blocks of games in which they held opponents to this few of runs. Prior to this successful point in time, it took 23 games to hold foes 11 times below five runs (10-13 record). Before then, 21 games (10-11) and starting April 19, it took 24 trips to the ballpark (11-13) to reach the figure of 11 again, proving how important good pitching is.

The St. Louis Cardinals are a surprise team, hanging around the lead in the NL Central, despite incredible injuries to many pitchers. Manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have pieced together pitching staff, and when the Cards to teams to 0-to-4 runs, they are 46-17 in 2008.

Minnesota’s 21-8 run to reach the All-Star break, has been fueled by great pitching, as clubs in other uniforms have scored four or less runs 20 times.

Because of the differences of ballparks, teams style of play, this is theory is not absolute and has a flip side relating to scoring runs. The San Diego Padres play in the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball and have matched the Chicago Cubs for allowing opponents to score four or less runs 54 times. The Padres problems revolve around offense, since an enormous 66 times (69.4 percent for those keeping track at home), they have failed to score five or more runs in a game.

Weak hitting teams like Washington and Seattle do not score enough runs with or without decent pitching. The Nationals have failed to break the barrier beyond four runs 61 times and the Mariners an even worse 65 times.

Detroit’s pitching has been suspect all season, thus they are more dependent on scoring runs. In the Tigers first 60 games, they failed to touch home plate five times 27 different ways, this led to 24-36 record. In last 34 contests, they have scored a minimum of five runs 20 times and are 23-11 in last 34 ballgames to square up record at .500.

Do you think Florida counts on hitting? The Marlins are 50-45 and have been outscored by 28 runs in 2008, thanks to allowing the third most runs in the National League. When Florida scores five runs or more, they are 47-14. When the Fish swim into four or fewer runs, they are miserable 13-31.

For those handicapping these figures, you have to understand what you are working with. It a team doesn’t score runs, and is facing starting pitcher with quality earned run average and is backed up with good bullpen, they are not going to have much success. In this situation, to seek value, you would need this team probably to be at home, scoring runs at above average rate of five or more contests and having their number one or two starter throwing. If these elements come together, a solid play on home underdog is worth contemplating.

The other aspect is to match the team’s recent play with how they are scoring and allowing runs compared to the oddsmakers total. If two clubs have been scoring five or more runs, for six or more games on average and the total is 8.5 for example, the oddsmaker is telling us two good starting hurlers are facing one another. In this case, it is a matter of understanding bullpens and which team is better equipped to play lower scoring game, knowing this should lead you down the path of profitability in the second half of the season.

Baseball Betting Changes

Earlier this season while doing research, came across a rather curious trend in major league baseball. At that point, it had been winning at a high rate of return and though it has slowed down to a point, still delivering far better than average results. Having never seen it mentioned anywhere else, decided to see if it had any legs beyond this season.

The angle read this way – What does a baseball team do against the money line, after exactly three consecutive games of 10 or more hits and next contest is on the road?

What was uncovered, road teams in this role have lost 40 of 62 games played to date in 2008, a 35.4 winning percentage. Playing against these teams has earned a dependable +15.60 units of profit, right at the All-Star break. What has been a boom for bettors is profits have been available in all areas concerning the money line.

Road favorites are 9-12, -5.85 units

Road underdogs are 12-25, -7.60 units

Road team “Pick” 1-3, -2.15 units.

Is this trend an anomaly for this season or has this been missed by baseball betting researchers?

Went back to 2007 and found 124 instances of this occurring for the entire season and the results were far different than this current campaign. Last year road teams were 61-63 in the same scenario and actually showed a profit in all games.

Road favorites were 26-19, +2.85 units

Road underdogs were 31-39, +6.99 units

Road team “Pick” 4-5, -1.25 units.

When I started thinking about what these numbers would mean in terms of perception, had to try break it down two ways, with two different conclusions. It would seem if a team is hitting the ball well enough to post three consecutive games of double digit base-knocks, the carryover affect would be strong, no matter where they played, unless they happened to draw the ace of the opposing team’s staff.

Having started with the 2008 numbers first, developed another way of looking at this, surmising the road team has not been able to continue the momentum of swinging the lumber with a high degree of execution and just ran out of luck as the road team, with the law of average just catching up with them.

Decided to put on archeologist attire and dig into 2006 and see which way was more prevalent. As it turned out, the original perception was right on the money, with road teams showing large gains and significant profit.

Road favorites were 25-10, +13.45 units

Road underdogs were 34-41, +9.35 units

Road team “Pick” 4-10, -6.5 units.

This reinforced original belief a hot-hitting team is dangerous, even on the road. The confidence level is high for those in the lineup and they are less intimated by playing on the road as a whole. A piece of very useful information was found, showing road teams off three games of 10 or more hits that are a “Pick”, are mere 9-18 the last three years.

Going back to where we started, based on the previous two years, how does one explain the lack of success road teams have had in 2008? While no one answer will encompass the entire scope of this question, there would appear to be one explanation that generally covers why this has occurred to date. As of right now, only three teams have a winning road record in major league baseball. In 2007, seven teams ended up above .500 record as visiting team and 2006 saw a total of 10 squads finishing in-the-black as visitors. Those numbers correlate to highlighted figures.

Thus far, road teams are winning 43.1 percent of all games played compared to 46 percent the prior three seasons. Will the trend of playing against these specific road teams continue or will the numbers equal out by the end of the year as per usual? Of course their no way to know precisely, but every year in all the various sports, unusual situations go against the norm, this could be one worth following.

Let's Talk NFL Football
By Doug Upstone, 6-12-08

With the passing game more prevalent than ever in the NFL, it is becoming increasingly more important teams have cornerbacks and safeties that can cover wide receivers in a variety of formations, as the last line of defense. As the Super Bowl champion New York Giants proved, rushing the passer is always the best medicine to keep a defense healthy, however, no matter how good any team’s pass rush is, they will not always be able to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks, placing the responsibility on the corners and the safeties to take on the onslaught.

The Oakland Raiders are Ov6 (-135) at Bookmaker.com in wagering for season wins in 2008, after winning a grand total of 10 games the last three years. What should give bettors hope of surpassing that total is having the best tandem of cornerbacks in the NFL, with Nnamdi Asomugha and newly acquired DeAngelo Hall. Asomugha only had one interception last year, largely due the fact teams didn’t even bother to throw to his side of the field, but with the super aggressive Hall, opponents are going to have to make a choice. It won’t fun for receivers trying to possibly exploit the Raiders safeties, with former Giant Gibril Wilson, a big hitting strong safety. Youngster Mike Huff is allowed to move to more natural free safety spot. If Oakland’s offense shows improvement for coach Lane Kiffen, .500 is not out of the question, if the front office doesn’t create more turmoil, as they often do.

The regular season matchups between Oakland and San Diego will delight every defensive backfield coach in the country. CB Antonio Cromartie proved he is a rising star in the league. He has long arms, big hands and exceptional closing speed to make plays or bat away passes. His running mate is Quentin Jammer, who doesn’t intercept many passes, but is a sticky cover guy. For teams that want to go after San Diego in the nickel, say hello to top pick Antoine Cason. Eric Weddle will be a new starter at safety and is a superior all-around athlete and Clinton Hart plays the run with reckless abandon. With what this contingent can do, the Ov10.5 (-150) might be less of a gamble.

Philadelphia for seasons has been able to stifle opposing offenses with tight cover schemes and bone-crushing hits from its secondary. After a couple of off seasons from this group due to injuries, the Eagles might be ready to soar once again. Philadelphia picked up a plum DB in Asante Samuel, one of the five best players at his position. He’ll be a good match with ballhawk Lito Shepard. For those thinking about the Eagles at Ov.8.5, a return to health of Brian Dawkins would go a long way in making this a more relaxing wager. S Quinton Mikell is above average in the passing game and excellent versus the run.

Remember just a few years ago when if Indianapolis didn’t hurry the quarterback, their mildly vanilla defensive backfield schemes could be picked apart? Those days are in the rearview mirror, with the corner combo of Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson. Both have good size (6’0, 195) and are ideally suited to play in Tony Dungy’s defense. Backing them up is the best safety in football, Bob Sanders. The diminutive former Iowa Hawkeye is the ultimate enforcer, throwing around his body to make plays. Playing in the rugged AFC South makes the total of 11 wins a tough call either way, but should the Colts fall short, it won’t be because of defensive backfield.

The Miami Dolphins were hands-down the worst team in football last season with a 1-15 record. The atmosphere in South Florida is changing with Bill Parcells running the show. This is a team with few talented players and nothing is more glaring than in the defensive backfield. In grading the corners and safeties separately, the only team even close to being this awful is New Orleans. Head coach Tony Sparano has expressed faith in corner Will Allen, yet he has to swallow hard with the thought of lining up Travis Daniels or Andre Goodman on the other side. Yeremiah Bell is an injury-prone safety and the rest of the group is only known to team officials and the player’s parents. Given the choice of Over/Under 5.5 on the Dolphins based on secondary play, only one wager makes sense.

Region Features Upstarts
By Steve Makinen, Statfox.com
3-12-08
Even though Wisconsin won the Big Ten, scouting the internet, most that follow the game and knowledgeable sports bettors are not that enamored with the Badgers. Of the 34 different opinions available on the net for public display, 17 believed Wisconsin would come out on top, easily the lowest figure of the eight conferences tracked. It will be Big Ten basketball, which means physical, sometimes grinding action, with the early going full of surprises. Action commences at high noon Eastern in Indianapolis, with Michigan taking on Iowa.

The lowest odds you can find of the six teams opening up play today to win the tournament is 10-1 with Minnesota at BogDoglife.com, which seems about right if it were played at the Metrodome.

Coaches John Beilein at Ann Arbor and Todd Lickliter at Iowa City are taking there lumps in first year at new institutions, working to reclaim past glory. Both teams are offensively challenged, with the Wolverines shooting 40.1 percent on the season and has shot well below that number is losing four of last five. The Hawkeyes have shot over 55 percent in last two road games and are 14-4 ATS in this Big Ten bash.

Illinois and Penn State will follow, with the Nittany Lions solid underdogs despite sweeping regular season encounters. All season long the Illini have been clanging the ball off the rim, proving wicked rebounding angles for both teams. The one constant as expected is the Illinois defense, which has held teams to 40.9 percent shooting. The downside is they are 3-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. Penn State won seven games in conference, including last five on home court. Unfortunately, they have lost last seven road games by average of 18.5 PPG.

To conclude the first day, Northwestern with a win, would match the number of wins they had all season in the Big Ten. Minnesota is a 9.5-point favorite, even being 4-8 and 6-6 ATS as a visitor. The Wildcats were just 3-10 away from Evanston, with money-making 8-4 ATS record. The Golden Gophers come in 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or less two straight games.

Key Stat -Opening Day Underdogs are 19-10 ATS.

On Friday, the four and five seeds, Michigan State and Ohio State will do battle again, having just played on Sunday. The Buckeyes are trying to make enough noise to pop the bubble of other teams like them and could with consecutive wins over the Spartans. Ohio State is 5-9 SU (8-6 ATS) on the road, nevertheless are 3-8 against the number off a cover. Tom Izzo's team is 7-2 ATS in the tourney versus a sixth seed or higher.

Wisconsin is a 7-4 favorite to win in Indianapolis and probably receive a number three seed at Sunday's dance card. The Badgers will face either Iowa or Michigan, having won seven straight (6-1 ATS) and are 17-2 and 12-5 ATS with three or more days between games.

Purdue is next in line after a sensational season at 2-1 odds. The Boilermakers are made up of talented basketball players, who understand and play the game better than more athletically gifted squads. Purdue should breeze past Penn State/Illinois winner, into the semi-finals. They are 13-7-1 ATS of a win and 11-3-1 ATS off a cover.

Indiana is the third choice at 7-2 and easily the shakiest. Since cell phone-gate sent Kelvin Sampson packing to dial from another area code, the Hoosiers are 3-2, with three-point wins over Northwestern and Ohio State and spanking at Michigan State by 29, plus season-ending loss at pallid Penn State. Indiana is 5-2 ATS in first game of tournament, but has sickly appearance.

Key Stats -

Favorites are 12-8 ATS in quarterfinals last five seasons.

Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in the semi-finals since 2002.

Underdogs are 10-3 ATS if opponent won as dog in last contest.

StatFox Forecaster Big Ten Bets - Wisconsin and Indiana
StatFox Consensus Big Ten Bets - Wisconsin and Indiana

Conference Tournament Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone, StatFox.com

Big East

Since formulating in the 70’s, the Big East has been known justifiably so as a basketball conference. The recent raid by the ACC not withstanding, the conference actually got stronger in basketball terms adding the likes of Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette and DePaul. The talk all year has been between the Big East and the Big Ten as to which conference is better. The Big Ten may have a better non-conference record; however it very difficult to argue which league has more power at the top. Many believe half the conference will be invited and it is tough to disagree with that assessment. If this is true, which eight will it be?

Opening Round

The opening game features and 8/9 match-up, Syracuse and Cincinnati. If the Big East is going to get 8 bids for the NCAA Tournament then the winner of this game helps themselves immensely by winning this game. Each team crushed the other on its home court. Syracuse closed with three straight losses and four of six, not exactly building momentum for tournament time. Cincinnati is 4-5 since February, with good win over West Virginia and loss to Villanova. Syracuse is 3-5 away and 2-7 ATS off a loss. Bearcats 3-7 away from home, yet have given good accounts of themselves most of the year even in defeat. If the game is close near the end, Cincy makes 76% from the charity stripe, while the Orangemen make 63.8%. These figures represent the best and worst in the Big East.

Advantage-Cincinnati

Notre Dame finally closed out a game with a win over DePaul, giving the Irish the final spot left for the tournament. Notre Dame doesn’t score inside much or create easy baskets. One thing they do well is knock down the three-ball. The Irish led the Big East in 3-point field goal percentage, making 40.1%. Georgetown came back to prominence with a jovial January, posting 7-2 record. The Hoyas retreated back to their up and down form in February and closed the season with embarrassing loss at South Florida. That gives Georgetown three straight road losses. Hoyas 8-8 ATS as favorite this year, with Notre Dame sensational 7-0 as away underdog. If G-Town does not come prepared, upset possible, nonetheless to much inside strength for Hoyas with Notre Dame covering.

Advantage – Georgetown

For Pittsburgh another poor closing to the regular season means mild disappointment for the Panther faithful. One difference is Pitt is playing to talent level after over-achieving most of the year. Louisville is battered, bruised and beaten and nearly upset Connecticut. Pittsburgh state of mind very important here. After trying to secure bye in this tournament, Panthers failed to do so, losing three of last four. With Rick Pitino still working magic and absolutely nothing to lose, the Cardinals are dangerous team. If Louisville had David Padgett and upset would be the right call. Instead Pittsburgh escapes with narrow win but not cover.

Advantage – Pittsburgh

The final game of the opening round is lackluster affair of a couple of non-descript teams. Expect Seton Hall to advance based on need for wins to still make field of 65, with Rutgers only chance winning the Big East Tournament. Fat chance.

Advantage – Seton Hall

Quarter-Finals

Whoever wins 8/9 game loses to Connecticut anyway, who simply has the most talented roster in all of college basketball. Jim Calhoun’s team is 8-2 and 7-3 ATS away from home. Only one team beats the Huskies in New York, UConn itself.

Advantage – Connecticut

Marquette quietly was a major surprise as a new entrant in the Big East. The Golden Eagles were stellar down the stretch winning 4 of 5, losing only at Louisville in OT. Marquette is 3-0 against which ever team they face and could be underdog if it is Georgetown despite higher seeding. Warriors, err, Golden Eagles should prevail with freshman G Dominic James being the difference as the best point guard in the game.

Advantage – Marquette

No Cinderella story this time around for West Virginia. Mountaineers closed 2-4 covering only one. This quarter-final match-up will be the rubber match in the “Backyard Brawl”. Unless West Virginia hits close to 50% from behind the arc, they could be in trouble. Pittsburgh has out-rebounded West Virginia by 29 in the two games. First upset of the tourney.

Advantage – Pittsburgh

Villanova played either opponent back in mid-January and dispatched with both, failing to cover in either situation. The Wildcats did not lose as away favorites and should not be expected to lose here either led by their four stellar guards.

Advantage – Villanova

Semi-Finals

Connecticut may be looking ahead to Villanova; first they have a score to settle with Marquette who handed them flustering first loss at the turn of the New Year. Tom Crean’s team gives game effort for 30 minutes, until the superiority of the Huskies takes over.

Advantage – Connecticut

This should be quite a game, since these teams did not meet in the regular season. Villanova has the speed and tenacity to break down Pittsburgh who is not exactly known for clutch performances. This should be a most interesting and entertaining game, with Villanova proving their mettle to advance.

Advantage – Villanova

Finals

Connecticut put the blueprint together as to how to defeat Coach Jay Wright’s determined team. Use their superior size to muscle the Wildcats over 40 minutes. If Rudy Gay comes to play, Huskies win by 10 points, if not the Huskies by around 5 points.

Big East Champions – Connecticut

Darkhorse – Pittsburgh

Spoiler – Notre Dame

Bubble Teams – Georgetown, Syracuse, Cincinnati

Odds to win Big East (by Sportsbook.com)

Connecticut 10-11

Villanova 2-1

West Virginia 6-1

Marquette 10-1

Field 9-2

NBA Friday Betting Questions
By Red Wydley, StatFox.com
3-9-08

Friday night’s ESPN NBA doubleheader will be about the last games of consequence for many basketball bettors, with all the important college basketball betting ahead. Each ball game will raise questions, allowing those looking in on the contests something to ponder. Before considering placing wagers, make sure the answers are satisfactory to meet your needs.

Do the Chicago Bulls have a clue?

Weren’t the Chicago Bulls supposed to be true playoff contenders when the season started? Tonight in Boston, they will be after there FIRST three game winning streak of the season, that’s correct numero uno. Interim coach Jim Boylan is acting like a tough guy coach, which is remarkably similar to the guy he replaced in Scott Skiles. The Bulls are ninth in the Eastern Conference standings. They made this big trade to get Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes, with neither even being able to make an All-Midwest NBA all-star team, let alone be big time productive players.

Having lived near the Chicago area, this supposed mad rush to make the playoffs with 25-36 (27-34 ATS) record isn’t going to fool anyone from the city of board shoulders. Oh sure, Tyrus Thomas needs to be punished for acting immature, and rookie Joakim Noah has often been like a whiny French foreign exchange student, but come on GM Paxson, get these guys in the lineup and force them to play. With players like Gooden and Hughes, you already know what they can do. Let’em play, because is it really that big a deal to finish 7-10 games below .500, take seventh or eight spot in the playoffs, to be swept by Detroit or Chicago! Da Bulls will enter tonight’s contest with Boston 2-10 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season. (When thinking about that trend, take a second to consider the other teams in that division.) Chicago only (?) lost by 25 the last time they visited Bean-Town and usually are so inspired they are 2-11 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more.

Will Boston care now that they have wrapped up playoff berth?

With the win over Detroit Wednesday, the Celtics captured playoff berth and pretty much locked up top seed in the East. Tonight, Bookmaker.com has them as 11-point favorites with total of 197 and there is no reason to believe they won’t continue to play hard. Consider Kevin Garnett played on many stinky T-Wolves teams that had to scrape for all 82 games to make the postseason. Now, he and the rest of his Kelly green-clad teammates are in position to have best overall record and send a message of intimidation, so why not. Boston is 14-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Besides, it would be fun to kick some tail against a team you could meet in the playoffs.

ESPN will have these two teams in opening game starting at 8 Eastern.

How come San Antonio always wins?

The San Antonio Spurs are the Roger Federer basketball. They are machine-like in how they mow down one opponent after another. Any slippage in play is a news story, just like when Federer loses a match. When San Antonio goes off on an 11-game winning streak like they are now (6-4-1 ATS), they are often overshadowed by other events, (Houston’s winning 17 straight) or people are ho-hum, because it is expected, much like Federer winning tennis tournaments. Back to the point of the question, the reason the Spurs always win is because they have three all-pro type players, workable bench players and they like to play defense.

Coach Greg Popovich has been blessed to have David Robinson, which led to Tim Duncan. This is reminiscent of the San Francisco 49ers, going from Joe Montana to Steve Young in terms of successful transition. Both the Admiral and Mr. Fundamental are team players first, and they set the example on the defensive end. Presently, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are the other stars and they follow the lead dog. Years ago when Steve Martin was doing stand-up, he had a joke that talked about where someone would want to put there money, First National Secure Bank or Bill’s Bank? Bill would be on the street corner screaming “Put your money in my bank, I promise I’ll watch it REAL close.” In much the same way, Brent Barry and other role players have had the opportunity to go to other teams, but what team is going to give them the best chance at another ring and playoff cash. They already know.

Can Denver win being one-dimensional?

In many cases they can, because they have two All-Pro players like Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony and a post presence in Marcus Camby. Where they will struggle is against teams that can play defense like the Spurs. Denver is a two-point favorite and has six of the last 11 regular season meetings between these Western teams, but come playoff time the Nuggets are edible against more defensive-minded teams. Denver ranks fourth in the NBA in scoring at 107.6 PPG, but even that kind of scoring has a down side, as they are 4-12 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game this season.

Denver can win games like this especially at the Pepsi Center, where they are 24-7 and 18-13 ATS. The Nuggets get into those feeding frenzy times at home and are 12-2 ATS on home court after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last two seasons. Another factor in Denver’s favor is the Spurs haven’t been as proficient and profitable on the road, with 12-17 spread record. This has been especially true on the road after a home game, with 4-12 ATS mark.

Can Dallas Dispel Potent Systems Again?
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

The Dallas Mavericks gave it there all in Los Angeles, coming up short at the Staples Center 108-104 in overtime to the Lakers. Dallas did about everything right, but couldn’t stop Kobe Bryant, who scored 30 of his game high 52 points in the fourth quarter and overtime to beat the Mavericks. The only consolation for Dallas backers was they covered the 6.5-point spread.

The beginning of March leads to several NBA systems kicking in, involving better quality teams. The basic principle of these systems is home teams in certain winning percentages; perform exceedingly well this time of year. For example, it has been a huge money-maker for bettors to ride home teams in a game involving two good teams with winning percentage between 60 to 75 percent, in March games the last five seasons. The rationale is each is in the playoff hunt and the home team is playing well and can ride the emotion of the moment, which can propel them to victories and covers. This system started the month 28-5, 84.8 percent against the spread.

A parallel system involved is to Play Against road underdogs in the exact same situation (two good teams with winning percentage between 60 to 75 percent, in March games). It would figure if the teams were fairly evenly matched, the road team would be the underdog. This would not necessarily be the case in each instance, if for example the home team was at just over 60 percent and the road team would be nearer the 75 percent number. In this system, the best way to wager has been to Play Against the road pooch, since it has been sensational 23-3, 88.5 percent since 2003.

Dallas dumped both systems Sunday in covering the spread against the Lakers and will try to make it two in a row at Utah. The Mavs are in difficult scheduling spot, especially after such a grueling overtime loss. Coach Avery Johnson’s team is 8-6 and only 5-8-1 ATS when playing back-to-back games in 2007-08.

Utah is rested and has been alternating wins and losses the six contests. The Jazz are tied with Dallas for the best home record at 25-3, but is the best Play On team in the NBA at home with 18-10 ATS record and has the largest point differential at 12.3 PPG. Utah is 15-5 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Utah as six point home favorites with total of 204.5. In spite of success against the Lakers, the Mavs are still just 4-17 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last two seasons. Utah’s position is further enhanced by 13-2 ATS record in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last two years.

Can Dallas make a pair of ultra-profitable systems losers two days in a row? The answer unfolds at 9:05 Eastern on NBA-TV, with the Jazz hitting perfect notes with 8-0 ATS mark at Energy Solutions Arena when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the second half of the season over the last two campaigns.

StatFox Power Line – Utah by 7

Late Season Conference Action

By Jim Kruger

2-10-08

Most handicappers like to break down the college hoops season into different categories. Usually, there are three categories:
1. “Pre-season”, the early non-conference schedule
2. Conference games
3. Post-season games

Betting the early college games requires having a fair amount of knowledge of the teams. Preparation is very important knowing returning starters, strength of the point guard, depth, new incoming talent, coaching tendencies in non-conference games, and so much more.

Once conference play begins you have an entirely new world for college teams. No longer are teams “tuning up” nor do you very often have coaches experimenting with multiple line-ups trying to find the right chemistry. Rivalries play a huge part in conference play as does home court advantages.

I break down the season into five parts. I do delineate between Conference tournaments and the NCAA and NIT tournaments. I also add as a distinct additional category of breaking down the college season by adding the latter part of conference play. This category usually starts the first or second week of February depending upon the conference. Teams have played each other once and are now starting on the second time around of match-ups.

During late conference action teams know each other better, points can be harder to come by as offensive schemes and sets have been seen by their opponents. New players or ones that are having breakout seasons are no longer such an unknown commodity.

Many teams on the road lost to the team they will now be facing at home. While revenge is a big part of college hoops and many people base many of their wagers on revenge. I recently wrote an article discussing revenge in the NBA. The main gist of the article was that revenge is not always so sweet and is not a handicapping tool that can be applied blindly while trying to pick winners.

A perfect example was just this previous week when Purdue was visiting Wisconsin. Purdue had previously this season upset Wisconsin, 60-56, ending a Badger’s five-game winning streak. Wisconsin has a tremendous home court advantage but it didn’t hold up against the Boilermakers. The win ended the Badgers' 16-game home conference winning streak.

Purdue last beat a team ranked in the top 10 on the road on March 1, 1998, when they beat Michigan State, #10 at the time. Even though the Badgers had a furious comeback attempt fall short and the Purdue win was only by 5 points, it was no fluke. Purdue led by as much as 15 points in the second half and Wisconsin had the advantage of hitting 30 of 33 free throws in the game. What makes Purdue’s nine-game winning streak and first-place position in the Big 10 is most pundits picked them to finish 8^th or 9^th in the Big 10.

Teams may now be evaluated upon their conference play as compared to their non-conference games which the results and stats often are quite nebulous in helping you pick out winners. If you are mainly looking at just how a team has fared in conference games you no longer have to rely on strength of schedule as a measuring stick.

A perfect example of the value of weighing conference stats much more heavily than just overall stats is the University of San Diego. The Toreros played the 56^th toughest non-conference schedule in the country. That is the toughest out of conference schedule of any West Coast Conference team this year except for the masochistic Gonzaga Bulldogs whose coach, Mark Few, realizes that in order to get a higher seed and to prepare his team for the NCAA Tournament, he must play a very tough non-conference slate, this year #8 in Division 1.

Coach Few has been concerned that his team was not receiving the difficult type of challenges that other teams throughout the nation face in heated competitive conference action. Paraphrasing his statement of “we’ll play anybody, anywhere, anytime” has become very true as this year they already gone to the other coast to play UConn and St. Joseph’s and to the Plains to battle Oklahoma.

San Diego’s opponents out of league weren’t quite as tough, but they did include USC, Kentucky, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, 20-4 South Alabama, Boise State, and Nevada. That’s not a walk in the park. The difference in the Toreros’ defensive efficiency rating is tremendous. If you just looked at USD’s overall defensive efficiency rating of 93.6, you would realize that is pretty good but then when you saw their DE in only conference games at 86.6 you would be much more impressed.

Another spot of difference is in the Toreros’ defensive effective field goal percentage in conference at 44.6% versus a 49.1% mark in all games. Needless to say, San Diego leads the West Coast Conference in both of those statistics mentioned.

I like to look at conference tendencies. All conferences are not created equal in how they perform in certain situations and even time of the season. Some leagues have better home court advantages or a bigger gap between the top tier teams and the bottom feeders. There are travel differences between conferences. There are some conference differences between how the public and the linesmaker perceive them, especially how the season progresses.

Let’s look at how some conferences change as the league action moves forward during the year. Also note how some change differently than others. In all of the examples that are being quoted, they are strictly regular season conference games from the 2000 season until February 10, 2008. No post season nor any non-conference action is part of any of these results.

In the Atlantic Coast Conference, during the month of January, home favorites are 103-103 against the point spread, an exact 50%. Wow, the linesmaker is doing a pretty good job! No bias or line shading whatsoever. When February rolls around, all of a sudden home favorites are now 118-92 ATS, covering the spread at a 56.2% rate. Away favorites don’t do nearly as well showing up with a 36-55 record, 39.6%.

I would assume the average bettor would believe that trend of ACC home favorites improving against the point spread would continue in March. Here is a good example of why betting on sports is difficult and requires a tremendous amount of work to be successful at over a period of time. Even more startling is in March regular ACC play, home favorites have now dropped to a 41-70 ATS mark, a wallet busting 36.9% win rate. Road favorites are now losing at even a worse rate dropping from 39.6% in February to 33.3%.

We see a similar pattern with the Big Twelve. In January, home favorites are almost an exact 50%, 100-98. Come February, they have improved to 131-107, 55%, ATS. However, if you have the time to notice how certain point spread ranges do in February Big 12 action you would be well-rewarded. Teams at home favored up to –2.5 are an incredible 28-9 ATS, 75.7%. Stretch the range to include up to –6.5 points and you have a 62-33 record, 65.3%. In March the favorites fail, however not as bad as in the ACC, recording a 52-57 grade card. Home dogs come through with a sweet 23-12 record, 65.7%.

In the Missouri Valley Conference teams giving points at home never do well. Home favs in January almost exact 50%. In February they drop to 46.5% and in March slump to 44.8%.

A conference where home favorites do worse the entire league season is the Big East. They start in January only covering 47.5% of their games, drop to 46.3% next month, and close in March with a sad 44.4% clip.

Okay, isn’t there a conference where home favorites do well the entire conference season? Yes, and it is one many people overlook, the Little 10, the Mid-American Conference. The first month of conference action tallies a 153-122 home favorite slate. That dips down into February but we aren’t losing any money even with the house juice, a 52.4% win rate. However, March makes up for a financially boring February by putting up an incredible 73-47 ATS record, a superb 60.8% pay-off-the-credit-card rate!

Knowing how teams and leagues progress through the season and especially during conference play can keep your bankroll growing and help you enjoy another fun and exciting college hoops season.

Pac-10/Big East - Have Common Thread
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com
2-11-08

This could well stir up the annual argument about what college basketball conference is best; however even SEC fans who think they are the best at any sport, would have to agree, their league is down this season. Beyond Tennessee, the rest of the collection is average to slightly above, with numerous teams playing below expectations. The Big Ten leads the other conferences with the most snow on the ground and that’s about it. Kansas and Texas are the class of the Big 12, with Kansas State and Texas A&M trailing and Baylor doing a nice job as a comer.

The story this season is in the Pac-10 and the Big East. Maybe it’s a West Coast bias, but of the all the college games this reporter has watched, the Pac-10 is currently playing the best brand of basketball. Before the emails start coming in, this statement is based on top-to-bottom strength. It’s not how many teams will make the NCAA Tournament, or how they will perform once they get there; it’s about the quality of basketball being played year-to-date. It’s hard to consider the Big East as ever being the best, with unruly 16 teams to think about, meaning the bottom feeders dilute the over quality of the league.

Both these leagues are different, yet they have one common bond.

In the Pac-10, a number of old venues are used in which games are played. Oregon has the second oldest building in college hoops at McArthur Court, Washington might be in the ninth place in the conference, yet at the corporately named Bank of America Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion (locals call it Hec Ed), they managed to pull the big upset of UCLA this past weekend in the old barn. With the balance and talent in this conference, save Oregon State, it is proving to be a challenge to win anywhere. What this means is all teams in this league are as likely to lose at home, as they are on the road. Need proof, read on.

All home teams in the Pac-10 are a hard to fathom 28-26, which carries an unimpressive win percentage of 51.8 percent. What is understood by those wagering on college basketball, the home court is being negated across the board on the Left Coast. For bettors that don’t have to hit the sack in order to watch Pac-10 basketball, before going to work the next day like there East Coast counterparts, they have enjoyed unusual success in playing road teams.

{Pac-10 Home underdogs are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS}

Here we find all home teams have a disturbing 20-34, 37 percent against the spread record when on the home hardwood. This uninspiring play is further driven home with the play of home underdogs, which are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS. Granted, the Beavers of Oregon State couldn’t gnaw there way to win or cover if it was made out of fiberboard; still the numbers are still putrid if you take out the four home games they’ve played at Corvallis. Eliminate their four losses and non-covers and the conference winning percentage rises to meandering 56 percent, with home teams covering right at 40 percent, hardly worth paying attention to for those seeking to back home clubs.

The Big East has seen different results from the aspect of wins at home. In this expansive conference, the home teams do a much better job of winning in the home uniforms with 54-32 record, good for a 62.8 percentage. This figure is deceiving, being frontload at the top of the league. This is where the current top five teams are 24-3 straight up in conference action. This leaves the rest of the 11 teams a mediocre 30-29 collectively.

Where the Big East and the Pac-10 connect is how poorly home teams covered spreads at home. Here we find this less than sweet 16, 36-50 ATS, at 41.8 percent mark. Breaking this down further, the teams not in the top five slots in the conference are one game over .500, with a miserable 22-37 ATS record at home.

In tearing these numbers apart, the bottom half of the Big East drags the whole league down with its 19-23 record when playing before the home crowd. These teams are 7-16 as home dogs, with nine covers in all. As home favorites, primarily playing one another, they improve to 12-7, with 8-11 ATS record, thanks to Villanova, who is brutal 0-5 ATS as home chalk.

{For “dime players” that’s a profit of $21,400}

When betting on two of the best conferences in college basketball, it pays to know and understand where the money is coming from. Combining the two conferences, playing road teams exclusively; yields a record of 84-56, 60 percent. For “dime players” that’s a profit of $21,400. Playing road teams is the fastest method to make money.

You Want Picks? We Got Picks!

By Jim Kruger

2-3-08

Handicapping the National Basketball Association games can be one of the most frustrating, confusing, and maddening experiences any handicapper goes through in their sports betting life. It is extremely situational trying to pick the spots when a team “comes to play” versus the times they just seem to be going through the motions. We’ve all watched a team be behind the entire game until the final few minutes of a contest when they seem to crank it up a notch and eek out a victory.

I like to look at many different qualifiers in trying to predict how who will win a game and whether it will go Over or Under the lined total. These vary from the schedule, including past as well as future games, previous results, previous and next opponent, and even what day of the week it is. How many people can answer what day of the week this season is seeing the Under happen 64.1% of the time? I’ll give you the answer at the end of this article.

Since so many times people are telling you why a team won after the fact, I thought I would dig up some future games that have strong enough situations that will hopefully give you some winning tickets.

One of many interesting scheduling situations in the NBA is the 4-games-in-5-days situation. It consists of a set of back-to back games, a day off and another set of back-to-back games. This season there are 78 occurrences of a team playing four games in five days—an average

of 2.61 per team over the 82-game season.

Here we see that there are 20 occurrences of the 4-roadgames-in-5-days situation. Fifteen teams have this grueling road trip experience this year. However, Phoenix, Seattle and New York each have two such trips and the Golden State Warriors have three separate four-in-five road trips. Wonder how they got to be so unlucky?

An interesting note, perhaps even more so since the Warriors eliminated Dallas last year in one of the great NBA Playoff series upsets of all time, but once again the Mavericks get favorable scheduling not having even one 4-in-5 road trip this season. It makes you wonder if all of the complaining Mark Cuban has done over the years has helped as the Mavericks haven’t played one of these fatigue-inducing series since the 1999 strike season.

Since the start of the 1995 NBA season, the league is 92-163 straight up (36.1%) when playing their fourth road game in five days losing by an average of 4.4 points per game while getting an average of 4.4 points per game from the linesmakers.

I am going to give you a play that has won 63% of the time against the spread and 63% of the time against the Total. In fact, it would make a good parlay situation. Instead of looking at that last game of the dreaded 4 road games in 5 days situation, let’s look at the very first game of that ordeal. It is always fun to first assume how a team will do in a certain situation and then see whether you are correct. In the first game, doesn’t it make sense that the team knows they are in for a physically grueling patch of games coming up so they perhaps don’t play up to quite the same tempo as they normally do. They want to “save something in the tank” for the upcoming games. After all, they play again on the road tomorrow without any rest.

On March 4^th when Golden State visits Atlanta we will see if our play against Golden State and on the Under continues to win. The 63% play is to play against the team starting the road trip and to play the Under. The one qualifier is the team is starting the road trip with one day of rest.

Another upcoming game involving the 4-games-in-5-days situation that has covered the point spread at a 68.4% rate since 2003, 26-12, happens next on March 27^th. This game should really put this trend to test as we are playing on the Miami Heat on the road at Detroit! At least we should be getting plenty of points! The qualifiers here are the location of the previous and next games for the teams.

A very rare situation this year that has gone Over the lined total 71.4% of the time since 2003 is in a Saturday day game where two divisional opponents are meeting each other. The home team is rested while the visiting team is playing without any rest. This particular circumstance only happens twice during the 2007-08 season. The first time was on December 1 when Detroit visited Milwaukee, two Central Division foes. The total flew over the 193 linesmaker’s number by 15 points as both teams shot over 50% from the field, Detroit 51.2% and the Bucks, 55.7%. The only other time we will see this spot again is on February 23^rd when the Los Angles Clippers host the LA Lakers. Look for the scoreboard to light up!

Sometimes in handicapping the NBA, things that seem to be logical turn out to be anything but. Instead of using the catch phrase “The NBA…It’s Fantastic!”, David Stern should consider using “The NBA…Perception is Not Always Reality!” I uncovered some of these fallacies in a previous article, “NBA Betting Myths”, that many people believe are the gospel.

I can’t tell you how many times I have read or heard somebody say that a team that just played the night before at Denver and now they are playing without any rest is a great spot to play against that team. Some people think it’s a great spot to play the Over as the team will be tired and not play very good defense. Handicapping the NBA usually isn’t that simple.

To help prove perception is not always reality in the NBA, you just have to look at the next trend I am going to give. It is rare instance only happening 23 times since the 2001 season. Our 17-6 ATS trend, 73.9%, says to play on a team that just played in Denver and is now playing at home without any rest and is competing against a team whose previous game was at home. It only shows up four times this year with the next occurrence not until April 6^th when the Sacramento Kings return home Saturday after playing in Denver Friday night. The Kings will be entertaining the Los Angeles Lakers. Oh, I probably should mention the Under wins at a 62.5% clip in these games.

There you have a few plays which historically have won frequently enough to put cash in our pockets. Oh, and the day where the Under has been coming up 64.1% of the time is Sunday.

Conference Tendencies in College Hoops

By Jim Kruger

1-13-08

A football coach tries to uncover tendencies in their upcoming opponent. When a team has the ball, what do they normally do on third and short? Do they run off tackle? How often will they attempt a pass? How often do they blitz on long yardage downs?

Just like that football coach, I look for certain tendencies that will give me an edge in wagering. These can be at an individual team level, a conference tendency, or pertaining to any team overall. You even want to look at certain players and how a team performs if the player does well in a game. Or, what happens to a team if the player is not in the game due to injury or is in foul trouble. Without Jerryd Bayless, depth-shy Arizona was a shell of the team they are when he is playing.

Conference play is quite a contrast to the non-league games teams play at the beginning of each season. Non-conference games allow teams the chance to improve as new players on a squad get used to playing together. This is the time for a coach to experiment with different line-ups and to evaluate his entire roster before settling in with a certain rotation. Some coaches have different philosophies of games played before their league action begins. Rick Pitino puts melding his team together as the primary goal. Other coaches want to win at all costs, perhaps to generate fan support or to have the players build confidence in themselves.

When you get into the conference schedule, the games become a very serious matter. No longer are you in a tournament in some exotic place going on tours of pineapple plantations during your off-time. Many times these early games are against teams you rarely ever play. They don’t know your schemes and abilities nor do you of theirs. In many leagues you will play the same team twice in a season. The rivalries that exist in conference play are extremely intense.

Just like in college football, some leagues have certain tendencies that occur more frequently than others. Overall, some conferences seem to have better home court advantages than other conferences. The quick assumption would be the home games are well attended with fanatical crowds that quite boisterous. Travel could be a factor as some schools are difficult to get to and require a long bus ride. Or, if you are in the Western Athletic Conference, a long plane ride to Honolulu to play the Warriors.

That travel to Hawaii hasn’t been too much of a disadvantage unless the road team is favored over Hawaii. Hawaii as a home underdog since the 2000 season is 13-7 ATS. However, as a favorite they are only 44-53 covering the number. That very well could be a case of the oddsmaker shading the line to Hawaii’s side simply because so many people bet on the Warriors believing the visiting team will be too tired and their bodies thrown out of whack due to the time zone difference.

In conference play, an exceptional home court advantage when the line is a pick’em to a 2.5 point underdog occurs in the Southeastern Conference. Small home dogs are 20-8 against the spread since 2004 in the SEC. The straight-up record isn’t bad either at 17-11. With the line that small, the teams are very evenly matched. This SEC tendency just happened last week when Vanderbilt visited Kentucky with the Wildcats as a short underdog. It took two overtimes to happen, but Kentucky ended up winning the game outright over the previously undefeated Commodores.

However, in SEC games if the two teams aren’t as evenly matched and the home team is getting 3 to 7 points, the ATS record of the home team is a losing 18-28 and a dismal 15-31 SU mark. That’s quite a difference from the small dog record of 20-8.

Another strong home court advantage in conference play shows up in the Big Ten where single-digit home favorites are covering the spread at a sparkling 60.2% rate, 77-51, since the 2004 season. Double-digit home favorites don’t fare very well in the Big Ten as they have a losing record ATS even though straight-up the home team has won 86 out of 88 games.

A strong home-court advantage is not the case in the Big East when the home team is a single-digit underdog covering the spread only 43.2% of the time. The Big East is such a large league that many times there is a bigger difference in talent from the top to the bottom and the number of sub-par teams.

The Ohio Valley Conference, with members such as Austin Peay and Tennessee State, shows good balance between all of its teams with double-digit home favorites only covering in 25 out of 68 times, a pitiful 36.7% success rate.

The ACC has North Carolina and Duke, two perennial top ten teams, that many times will be playing as very large favorites, even on the road. In ACC play, home teams lined at pick’em to getting 6.5 points are a very healthy 42-27, 60.9%, ATS. However, when that team is a seven points or higher dog in league play, they have covered the spread only five out of 19 times. Ouch!

The PAC-10 plays a unique conference schedule where most of the teams play on a Thursday-Saturday rotation. The geographical locations of its member schools makes it quite easy for the PAC-10 to do this. With two teams each in the states of Washington, Oregon, and Arizona coupled with two in Southern and two in Northern California, it doesn’t take long for a conference schedule to be made.

How do the road teams grade out against the spread playing with one day of rest in the PAC-10? Like the Hawaii home ATS record, it is surprisingly different than expected. Road underdogs playing with one day of rest have a record of 55-42 ATS. Road favorites have even a better winning percentage, 17-12 ATS.

If you are looking for a conference that does well as a home underdog then you have to look no further than the Sun Belt Conference. Teams in the SBC in conference play have covered the spread 62.9% of the time as dogs at home since 2004. That ATS mark becomes a mind-numbing 25-8, 75.8%, if the team is getting 3 or more points!

By knowing the tendencies of certain conferences in league games, perhaps you won’t be betting against Florida Atlantic when they are a four-point home underdog.

Top NFL Divisional Playoff Tidbits
By Steve Makinen
Statfox.com

The next round of exciting NFL Playoff action is at the ready and we has loads of ammunition to help you be prepared. Here we have general facts and pointspread trends regarding action in the Divisional Playoff round from recent years, plus playoff statistical angles and systems designed to set you up as a winner. Take the time to read each one and be a winner this weekend.

* The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the average margin of victory in this round has been 13.9 PPG.

* The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the Divisional Playoff round overall since 1993, with a SU record of 42-14. Its ATS mark of 29-24-3 (54.7%) trails the Wildcard Round. However, in the last eight Divisional Playoff games, home teams are just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS, including 0-4 against the spread last year.

* Sunday road teams in the divisional round have been a solid bet the last few years, going 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS.

* Since ’93, only four NFC road teams have won straight up in the divisional round against 24 losses.

* 5th and 6th seeds in the NFC are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in this round. In the AFC, these same teams have enjoyed much better success, 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS.

* Favorites of more than a touchdown are 23-4 SU & 16-10-1 ATS (61.5 percent) in the Divisional Round since ’93.

* There has been only one home underdog in the last 14 years of Divisional Round play, and that was in 1997 when host Carolina upended Dallas 26-17 as a 3-point dog.

* The last seven home straight up wins and pointspread covers have also been UNDER’s. The last seven AFC Divisional Playoff games have also gone UNDER the total.

* In the last eight Divisional Playoff games with totals of 40 or more, the UNDER is 9-2. In games with pointspreads of 6-1/2 points or more, the OVER is 22-12, with the home team producing on average 30.1 PPG.

Updated NFL Playoff Statistical Angles

Here’s an update to the records of the top NFL Playoff Statistical Angles we uncovered prior to the Wildcard Round. Remember, although team statistics are just one piece of a large puzzle, a handicapper needs to put together to enjoy success in the NFL Playoffs, they are an important piece, as they can often signify tendencies and overall strength of the various teams. Here is a list of the categories that we analyzed:

-         Won-Lost Records
-         Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
-         Scoring Differential
-         Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game
-         Offensive and Defensive Rushing Yards Per Attempt
-         Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Game
-         Offensive and Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt
-         Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Play
-         Turnover Differential

Of the categories listed. Here is a summary of those that produced the most definitive results, those that won at better than a 55% rate ATS. Along with each angle, I’ve updated the records to include this past weekend’s games and also listed the teams qualifying for that angle in this weekend’s divisional playoffs.

Won-Lost Records:

- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) are 26-16 ATS (61.9%) in the playoffs since ’93. Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New England

- Teams with a won-lost percentage of .125 or greater (12.5%) and favored in the range of 7-9.5 points are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay

- Since ’00, road teams in the playoffs that have a better or equal record to the home team are 13-8 ATS (61.9%). Record last week: 1-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: None

- Over the last eight playoff seasons, home teams with a winning percentage edge of .165 or more (16.5%) over their road opponent are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS (72.7%). Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New England

Scoring Statistics

Offensive Points Per Game

- Teams with offensive points per game edge going into a playoff game are 82-65 ATS, or 55.8% since ‘93. However, since ’00, that record is just 43-39 ATS for 52.4%. Record last week: 3-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis, Dallas

Rushing Statistics

Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game

- Teams with rushing yards per game edge on defense going into a playoff game are 81-66 ATS, or 55.1% since ’93, showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs offensive rushing attacks. Since ’00, that record is 47-36 ATS for 56.6%, showing the importance of a stout rush defense has increased in recent years. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Dallas

Defensive Yards Per Rush

- Teams with a Yards Per Rush edge on defense going into a playoff game are 76-58 ATS, or 56.7% since ’93, again showing that the ability to stop the run outweighs any offensive rushing numbers. Since ’00, that record is 45-35 ATS for 56.3%, showing that defensive YPR has indeed proven a key stat to keep an eye on in recent postseasons. Record last week: 1-3
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, NY Giants

Passing Statistics

Offensive Passing Yards Per Game

- Teams with passing yards per game edge on offense going into a playoff game are 82-65 ATS, or 55.8% since ’93. Since ’00, that record improves to 48-34 ATS for 58.5%, showing that passing is clearly becoming a more important ingredient to playoff success. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis, Dallas

Offensive Yards Per Pass

- Teams with yards per pass edge on offense going into a playoff game are 77-62 ATS, or 55.4% since ’93. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis, Dallas

Yards Per Play Statistics

Offensive Yards Per Play

- Teams with yards per play edge on offense going into a playoff game are 83-63 ATS, or 56.8% since ’93, adding another fairly successful stat category to our postseason handicapping arsenal. Since ’00, that record drops slightly to 46-36 ATS for 56.1%, but still at a success rate that would net profitability each playoff year. Record last week: 2-2
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis, Dallas

Summary

The fact that four of our top six categories are offensive statistics dispels the notion that “defense wins championships”. Naturally, the next task is to combine the top categories to see if teams enjoying edges in more than one successful statistic enjoy further success. Incidentally, teams enjoying an edge in ALL SIX of these categories are 18-7 ATS since 1993 in the playoffs, including 14-2 ATS in the divisional round.

Here are five successful playoff stat combos that achieved better than 60% ATS success in our study:

- Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Rushing Yards Per Game are 44-28 ATS (61.1%) since ’93. Record last week: 1-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis, Dallas

- Teams with an edge in Offensive Points Per Game AND Defensive Yards Per Rush are 36-18 ATS (66.7%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-0
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis

- Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Passing Yards Per Game are 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis

- Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Pass Yards Per Attempt are 32-17 ATS (65.3%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis

- Teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush AND Offensive Yards Per Play are 32-14 ATS (69.6%) since ’93. Record last week: 0-1
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Indianapolis

Additionally, SYSTEMS come into play that also fit the bill in determining winners. For example:

- Play Against teams that won prior playoff game and allowed 21 or more points.
The reason being these teams gave a shaky defensive effort and might not be that strong against similar or better competition. Record – 20-4-1 83.3%
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: Jacksonville

- Play Against a team the won straight up as an away dog in the Wild Card round.
The likelihood of any team being able to pull off two consecutive road upsets is remote, especially against a rested team. Record – 8-2 80%
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: New York

- Play On playoff team that failed to cover last two regular season games against the spread.
The squad played poorly to close the regular season either by design or lack of interest. They will want to make a statement to right the ship in hopes of advancing to next round and have two weeks to work out details. Record – 13-3 81.2%
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: New England and Dallas

- Play On any team that scored 500 or more points in the regular season and is now playing first playoff game.
This team has established how explosive they are and come roaring out of the blocks in the postseason. Record – 9-1 90%
** Qualifying Plays for ‘07-08 Divisional Weekend: New England

Good luck this weekend everyone, I’ll be back next week to update records and project Conference Championship games.

NBA Betting Myths

By Jim Kruger

12-10-07

Many myths are born in sports betting. They get propagated and embellished as the years go on just due to being repeated so often, many times developing inaccuracies and deep-seeding the falsehood even more. It is like the childhood game where the teacher would tell you a phrase or name and then you whispered it to the next kid. This continued through the class until at the end of the line the initial words spoken by the teacher were completely different than what the final person in line heard.

Certain fallacies in sports betting exist as rock-solid betting situations, some even approaching “can’t lose” proportions. Sports bettors make assumptions that aren’t correct, even though they seem like the obvious choice to make. Let’s look at a couple of betting myths in the NBA that many people to be true.

Myth #1
Play against teams in their last game on a long road trip.

Would you like to make a wager that covered more than 60% of the time since 1995, the earliest year my database goes back to? Let me set up the situation.

You are on the road in the NBA. You are going from city to city, almost always late at night after a game, not arriving to your destination until the early hours of the morning. Many times you don’t even have a day off to help prepare for your next opponent. At least half of the cities you visit you will barely know as you only go there to play once a year. Weather can be a factor. You live in Miami and now you get to play a Tuesday night game in below-freezing weather in Minneapolis. In a snow-storm.

Okay, maybe I overdid it. Life on a long road trip in the NBA can be difficult. I don’t care if it is a charter jet and you are staying at very nice hotels. Travel is travel. Crossing time zones, unfamiliar beds, and sleep deprivation add up. Just traveling in a plane can take it out of you.

So, what better spot to bet against a team that is playing their last game on a five-game road trip? Surely they are tired and wanting to go home. How can this team give it’s all to win the game. My favorite line is applicable here: The point spread is the great equalizer.

Did you ever think maybe the linesmaker knows this is that team’s last game before heading home. Maybe the line will be shaded a bit more than normal? How about the other team’s thoughts? They know their opponent’s situation. Could they be thinking of how easy this game is going to be? Will they be playing with as much focus and intensity against the team with the frequent flyer miles?

How about this for an answer: A team playing its fifth game on a five-game trip covers 61.7% of the time if it is against a conference opponent who is off of a loss. It’s that simple. Add the fact that the team’s foe’s loss was at home and you improve it a bit to 62.8%. And, if the road team’s opponent is playing their next game on the road, you now have a spot that covers 70.8%.

Myth #2
Play against teams that are playing a back-to-back game versus a team with rest.

Yes, this makes logical sense. But first, you better know what teams are playing. Boston over the past five years playing without any rest versus an opponent with rest is a stellar 30-13, 69.8%, against the spread. The Hornets are 34-19. 64.2%. If you are lucky, maybe that team you are playing against is the Utah Jazz, 17-31 ATS the past five years. Or even better, the “tired team” is the Lakers, 22-43 against the number, better than a 66% winner for you.

What about a game pitting two teams with both teams playing back-to-back contests? This is a dilemma! Just hope you aren’t betting against the Phoenix Suns in this case, 18-9 the past five years covering the spread. Maybe you are fortunate and will be betting against the Sacramento Kings, just 6-15 ATS in this spot.

Location of the games can be a factor. A common situation is where the un-rested team is on the road playing against a team with one day of rest. It is just a one-game trip and the back-to-back squad returns home for their next game. Is it a surprise that the un-rested team covers 54% of the time? Not huge, but I better have a more compelling reason to bet against them than just the fact they are playing back-to-back games.

If you don’t believe location can be a factor, how about by just knowing where the opponent plays next can increase that “tired team” from covering 54% of the time to covering 65.6% of the time. The poor guy who bet against the road team in our last situation where the squad he has money on is playing their next game on the road, lost his wager 65.6% of the time over the past five years.

Just to add to the rest myth, remember that team playing their last game at the end of a five-game road trip we spoke about earlier? The one in the situation that covered 62.8% of the time? Just add the fact that that road-weary team is playing that last game without any rest and your winning percentage against the spread just went up to 71.4%! It doesn’t happen often at all, but those are situations worth looking out for.

The bottom line is you will improve your bottom line in wagering on sports if you don’t always take an urban legend trend and bet it blindly. After all, don’t you remember when New York City’s sewers supposedly had alligators living in them? Or dropping an aspirin in a Coke….?

Qualities of a Point-Spread Winner

By Jim Kruger

12-10-07

As a professional sports bettor and handicapper, one key habit to get into, and I consider it one of the most obvious, is to reduce risk. This should be as easy and as much of a habit for the professional sports bettor as looking both ways before you cross a street is for an elementary-school kid walking home from school.

What better way to reduce risk than to take a look at teams who have covered the point spread at a good rate over each of the past three years? While I do believe in longer-term views as for uncovering trends and tendencies, I do also believe that each sport evolves and changes from year to year.

I went to the StatFox website where they have the best collection and history of college basketball statistics that I have ever seen available for free on the Internet. If you have never been to the StatFox website and you are a “numbers nut”, you will be creaming your fur when you see the stats and records they have available. That website is one of the best tools any handicapper can utilize no matter what sport they are handicapping.

Going to the team report page, I then sorted the teams by their ATS winning percentage. I eliminated teams that did not play a full season of lined games, ones with a point spread every week. You often have a North Dakota State or a Boston University that plays just a few lined games against large non-conference schools every year. There is no point in having their statistics cloud up the waters.

I looked at teams that covered the point spread at least 60% of the time for the entire season. I did this for the past three years. There were a total of 104 teams that were winners at this rate. The number each year was very constant, between 34 and 36 each year. Each year there was a slight decrease in the number of teams with losing straight-up records on this elite list. In 2004, of the 34 teams on the 60% list, 25 had winning records and nine had a season below .500, then a 28-6 mark in 2005 of over .500 teams, and followed by a 30-6 tally last season.

The number of bad teams, those with a straight-up winning percentage below 40%,that made the list also slightly diminished each year. The order of progression was 4 bad teams in 2004, then 3 followed by just two teams last year. There was only one very bad team, one who won less than 30% of their games, over the three-year period. That team with such notoriety was Idaho with a pathetic 4-27 record in 2006-07.

Next, I started looking at different statistics to determine what qualities do successful point-spread covering teams have. Are there similarities in how the teams perform looking at the numbers? There were definitely more high-scoring teams over the three-years that covered at a 60% rate or better. Twenty-six teams averaged 75 points or more versus just eleven teams that scored less than 65 points per game.

Most of the statistical categories I created a good number that was in the approximate top 20% of all teams in that category over the three years. Using offensive field goal percentage as an example, I rated teams that shot 46.5% or better from the field as “good shooting teams”. Finishing up a version of a bell curve, I then took the approximate bottom 20% and called them “bad shooting teams”. I used a mark of below 42% for those squads.

One of the strongest qualities the “60% covering teams” had was the ability to shoot the ball well from the field. There were 28 good shooting teams compared to only 8 that fell into the bad area. Using simplistic logic, the teams that are not offensively challenged seem to have a good chance of covering a point spread.

How about defending the shot? There was even a larger discrepancy in this category with 34 good defensive teams versus only 5 teams who allow a high shooting percentage. Obviously, good defense is an important attribute in selecting a team to bet on.

Interestingly enough, the ability to shoot well from three-point range and also to defend against that shot was not nearly as significant a factor. However, in 2006 that ratio of good to bad jumped up to 13 to 2 offensively but was still just a 10-5 slate on defending the three.

How a team scores, its offensive point distribution, was a complete non-factor. I looked at two-point to three-point field goal ratios on attempts and field goals made and there were almost equal numbers of teams that scored more from inside compared to ones that hit from behind the arc.

The area of free throws was quite interesting. Who wouldn’t think that teams who shoot from the charity stripe are more prone to cover the point spread. Therefore, I thought I would see the majority of teams on my elite list as ones who are deadly marksmen with the freebies. Just the opposite is what I discovered with 30 teams who are in the bottom 20% versus only 21 teams who are in the top 20%. Getting to the line wasn’t as important either as the bad teams outweighed the good ones there, also.

Good rebounding teams nor bad ones showed up on the list much more than the other. That includes both defensive rebounding as well as that from the offensive side.

There were two areas that really stood out as characteristics of teams I want to bet on. Many had a very good assist-to-turnover ratio, 35 to 9. Teams that pass the ball and don’t do a lot of one-on-one offense showed up more on the list than any other statistical category. Also, the value of not committing turnovers and instead creating them was extremely evident as 24 teams had a +2 or better turnover differential, they created more than they made, as compared to just 3 teams with a negative differential of minus two or more.

So, what did we learn? Shooting free throws well doesn’t help you cover the point spread as much as most people think. Overall field goal shooting and defense is more important than that concerning the three-point shot. Creating and not making turnovers shows the value of the possession of the basketball. A team’s turnover margin was more important in covering the point spread than other areas such as rebounding or where a team scored from. Adding to the turnover factor is the ability to pass the ball to improve the shot selection and the field goal percentage.

Look for these qualities in a team when making your choice of which one to wager on.

Checking NFL Playoff Wagering Possibilities
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

With 2008 just ahead and the NFL Playoffs starting soon there after, it’s time to start taking a closer look at the teams and what teams are worthy of consideration once the playoffs begin. Dallas, Green Bay and New England are in the top five of any sportsbook’s action since the Patriots won there first Super Bowl in 2002. The Cowboys and Packers have the pedigree, since Dallas was a top team for decades and the Green Bay fans love affair with Bart Starr in the 1960’s carried over all the way until Brett Favre more then 20 years later. Indianapolis wagering star has risen with Peyton Manning running the Colts offense and being the defending Super Bowl champions. With New York Giants and Pittsburgh, almost assuredly in the post-season, those are two magnets that attract attention with rabid fan bases.

Another important weighty consideration is how teams are playing currently, not over the case of an entire season. A team’s record straight up and against the spread record only tells a part of the story. Last year’s New York Giants are the classic example, having lost six of last eight games in the second half of the season with 2-5-1 spread record. The Giants came apart with bad quarterback play from Eli Manning, a defense that was often uninspired and questionable leadership from its head coach Tom Coughlin and were bounced in the first round by Philadelphia in the wild card round after starting 6-2. (Isn’t this starting to sound and look familiar again?) Know how teams have played the last three or four weeks. This is truer indication of how a team is likely to play in a “what have you done for me lately scenario”. It is extremely important to understand how a coach works his team in terms of preparation.

Tony Dungy could care less about how he finishes the regular season once everything is settled, as he has trained his team to be rested mentally and physically for the most important games ahead. This models his philosophy of resting injured players more then most coaches, looking at long term vs. short term goals. The New England players are chasing history and are quoted as saying they don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up on accelerator. The game plans will not be any less complete, with the only possible difference being starters will not play as much deeper in to games.

Beyond this, it is about how teams are playing. The most feared team without a bye is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jack Del Rio’s club is officially “trouble” headed into postseason. Most assumed they would be handled rather easily in Indianapolis and they didn’t roll over when expectations were increased. The win at Pittsburgh was really imposing. When the Steelers lose, it is either they made too many miscues or were beaten by better team. Seldom is it they are out-muscled by an opponent being more physical. Minnesota has more explosiveness in the backfield with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, running left behind Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson, however if you want to lay down the hammer with continual demoralizing results, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are more effective than a Sears Craftsman toolbox. David Garrard looks like Denzel Washington working the room with how smooth and efficient he is. He took the reins of this team and is in charge. The defense has injuries, yet Del Rio is masking those deficiencies with aggressiveness.

Remember the aerial circus early in the year from Cleveland? With the howling winds of Lake Erie blowing in December, the acquisition of RB Jamal Lewis has brilliance written all over it. What is fun to watch about the Browns is the growing process. When they first started winning games, everyone assumed, wait until Derek Anderson cools off. When Romeo Crennel’s crew kept winning, it was the defense will never hold up and the cold weather and will take away passing game. With the bad weather, Lewis put a trailer hitch on his behind and has carried the team through the rugged weather, closing out games behind an underrated offensive line. Braylon Edwards is big time performer and the defense does what it needs to.

Pittsburgh is in reverse and may be a bad play no matter if they win division or not. The losses at Denver and the Jets were the early warning shots of something amiss. The Steelers are a team in transition, really on both sides of the ball and Coach Mike Tomlin has not yet made his stamp on the team following all those years of Bill Cowher. That is not to say Tomlin is a bad coach, he just has different ideas about what Pittsburgh should look like and the players appear to be unclear what they are doing. The Steelers have one and done written all over right today.

General Manager A.J. Smith is a bit smug these days after San Diego wrapped up another AFC West title. All those calling for his head and believing the Chargers were going to be the biggest joke to hit the airwaves since CBS-TV failure “Viva Laughlin”. The Chargers should close the season on a six game win streak and would have the three seed. That would mean a challenging contest most likely with Cleveland, in which they would be favored. If all goes as expected, they would have rematch with Indianapolis whom they already have beaten. The Colts are still a very good team and would be healthier this time around compared to week 10 when these teams last met. San Diego would have no fear of Indianapolis in the RCA Dome, as most of this cast won in that building late in 2005. San Diego is becoming increasingly more dangerous and might end up in AFC title game.

The Seattle Seahawks are not as good as team that went to Super Bowl a few seasons ago, however they are not as bad as everyone was making them out to be after losing to Carolina. Seattle was making third airplane ride in the last month at least two time zones away and had just wrapped up NFC West title in whipping Arizona the prior week. The offensive line is not as dogmatic since Steve Hutchinson departed, yet as long as they at least provide protection for Matt Hasselbeck and hold blocks long enough for the draws and other delay plays, they should be just fine to move on to second round of the playoffs especially with those crazy, loud fans at Qwest Field.

The Dallas Cowboys might be hitting a bit of a lull late in the season, nevertheless key performers are not playing well making them worth watching. Tony Romo has looked real ordinary for a couple of weeks, as Dallas should have lost at Detroit, besides flopping to Philadelphia. Terrell Owens had two bad games in a row, as defenses are stuffing the running game, making the Cowboys more a passing team and doubling T.O. knowing he becomes frustrated not touching the ball and losses focus trying to make home run plays and drops balls. Patrick Crayton is showing signs of wearing down, leaving Romo too dependent on TE Jason Witten. With Dallas still holding tiebreaker on Green Bay, they will have to win last two road encounters to hold home field advantage. Where the situation becomes dicey is let’s say Washington upsets Minnesota next week, meaning they would need to beat the hated Cowboys to make the playoffs and potentially drop them into second seed. I see Redskins fans already smiling.

Do Cold Weather Teams Have Advantage?
By Doug Upstone - Statfox.com

One of the common thoughts floating around football is that cold weather teams have a distinct advantage late in the NFL season. Conventional wisdom suggests teams that practice in the cold and play in it have an edge, especially against teams from warmer climates. One game that sticks out was in 1993, the first year Brett Favre and Reggie White were together in Green Bay and ended up going to the playoffs. It was the second to last game of the regular season and the then Los Angeles Raiders came to what was a very frozen tundra in Lambeau Field. The Raiders were still a playoff team back in those days and future Hall of Famer and Fox announcer Howie Long was on that team. The temperature was hovering in the single digits and the wind was blowing steady, meaning the chill temperature was well below zero. Long tells the story about how all the Raiders players figured the Green Bay players would probably be in t-shirts warming up, trying to psyche-out the Black and Silver, so they decided to match the Green Bay attire. The Raiders went out for warm-ups, and sure enough all the Packers were dressed in t-shirts or something light and a number of Raiders were dressed the same. After about 10 minutes, Long and the rest of the Raiders players started to realize how cold it actually was and quickly finished warming up and scurried like rats back to the locker room for warmth. Long said he was frozen by then and tried to find whatever he could to wear to keep warm. Los Angeles was already beaten before they had the coin toss and went on to lose 28-0, playing more like they were interested in getting back to sunny California, then the bone-chilling temperatures of Green Bay.

For this article, we wanted to determine if cold weather teams really do have an edge playing in December or early January at home in the regular season. The criterion was set up this way, all cold weather teams by location that play outdoors at home. Obviously that eliminates Detroit, Minnesota, St. Louis and Indianapolis. The line was drawn to not include Tennessee or Carolina, granted it be chilly in those locales from year to year, it be also be downright balmy as well. This study goes back three seasons and takes into consideration only games that would be relevant. For example, Philadelphia in 2004 played Cincinnati in its last home game and was a 3.5-point home underdog as most of the main starters played little if at all and were destroyed 38-10. These types of games were not counted. From here we looked at all games straight up and against the spread and how they performed as home favorites and underdogs. The last element was determining point spread margins that were broken down into three distinct categories.

The total number of teams ended up being 14, which is a good cross section, as the teams chosen included Super Bowl participants down to the dregs of the NFL. The first thing noticed is these teams have played good football for the most part in accumulating 64-33 record, a 65.9 winning percent. The oddsmakers set these teams up as favorites just over 70 percent of the 97 games played over the three year period. What was not impressive was how these teams performed against the spread. These cold weather clubs managed to barely squeeze out a profit when taking the juice into consideration with 52-45 mark, good for 53.6 percent.

2004 21-8 15-14 ATS

2005 24-11 21-14 ATS

2006 19-14 16-17 ATS

Total 64-33 52-45 ATS

Next up is home favorites who performed at a high level. In this scenario, all home teams won 53 of 68 contests played on friendly turf, for an abnormally high 77.9 winning percentage. This area more than any other seems to suggest those setting the lines are shading the home teams, taking built-in impressions from the wagering public as part of the thought process to set the numbers. Despite winning a disproportionate number of times at home, these warriors were a paltry 34-33-1 against the spread.

2004 17-4 10-11 ATS

2005 18-1 12-6-1 ATS

2006 18-10 12-16 ATS

Total 53-15 34-33-1 ATS

2005 was the year of the favorite, which was proven in this work-up, however otherwise the numbers really become negative to bettors. Home dogs actually outperformed expectations from a straight up winning perspective. All underdogs were 13-15, awfully close to being .500, yet were not as good as could be imagined at 15-13 ATS, a 53.5 percentage. All this proved was in a couple of examples the home dog exceeded expectations, otherwise was like a lap dog being obedient when the underdog.

Where some headway is made for those wagering is taking our cold weather teams and placing them in specific point spread ranges. Here the favorite or underdog was not taken into account since the sample would be too small. Instead three ranges were used with critical half point’s part of the criteria. The first was 1 to 3.5-points. Here we find moderate money making potential. All NFL team in this study were 20-13 and nearly matched the number with 19-14 ATS record, good for 57.5 percent.

2004 3-4 3-4 ATS

2005 11-3 11-3 ATS

2006 7-6 6-7 ATS

Total 20-13 19-14 ATS

Much the same was true for all encounters that fit in the point range of 4 to 7.5 points, where the numbers were a perfect match at 17-12 SU and ATS for a winning percentage of 58.6. What can be determined here is all Northern tier teams in the United States are decent bet when playing at home and are plus-minus 1 to 7.5 points.

1 to 3.5 – 19-14 ATS record

4 to 7.5 – 17-12 ATS record

Total 36-26 - 58 percent

While that is a nicely profitable number, one that is not is when the home squad is listed at eight or more points as favorite or underdog. The large majority of the cases the home team was the favorite and posted a stellar 27-6 record. As good as that sounds, quite the contrary was the case for bettors who were beaten and bloodied supporting this sorry cast with 13-19-1 ATS mark, a 40.6 percentage over a trio of years.

In conclusion, oddsmakers seem to shade cold weather clubs, making them no better bet than flipping a coin to win. Teams that are underdogs or favorites at 7.5 or less points are an above average bet, while those at 8 or more points, it is best to wager against those teams.

With the passing game more prevalent than ever in the NFL, it is becoming increasingly more important teams have cornerbacks and safeties that can cover wide receivers in a variety of formations, as the last line of defense. As the Super Bowl champion New York Giants proved, rushing the passer is always the best medicine to keep a defense healthy, however, no matter how good any team's pass rush is, they will not always be able to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks, placing the responsibility on the corners and the safeties to take on the onslaught.

The Oakland Raiders are Ov6 (-135) at Bookmaker.com in wagering for season wins in 2008, after winning a grand total of 10 games the last three years. What should give bettors hope of surpassing that total is having the best tandem of cornerbacks in the NFL, with Nnamdi Asomugha and newly acquired DeAngelo Hall. Asomugha only had one interception last year, largely due the fact teams didn't even bother to throw to his side of the field, but with the super aggressive Hall, opponents are going to have to make a choice. It won't fun for receivers trying to possibly exploit the Raiders safeties, with former Giant Gibril Wilson, a big hitting strong safety. Youngster Mike Huff is allowed to move to more natural free safety spot. If Oakland's offense shows improvement for coach Lane Kiffen, .500 is not out of the question, if the front office doesn't create more turmoil, as they often do.

The regular season matchups between Oakland and San Diego will delight every defensive backfield coach in the country. CB Antonio Cromartie proved he is a rising star in the league. He has long arms, big hands and exceptional closing speed to make plays or bat away passes. His running mate is Quentin Jammer, who doesn't intercept many passes, but is a sticky cover guy. For teams that want to go after San Diego in the nickel, say hello to top pick Antoine Cason. Eric Weddle will be a new starter at safety and is a superior all-around athlete and Clinton Hart plays the run with reckless abandon. With what this contingent can do, the Ov10.5 (-150) might be less of a gamble.

Philadelphia for seasons has been able to stifle opposing offenses with tight cover schemes and bone-crushing hits from its secondary. After a couple of off seasons from this group due to injuries, the Eagles might be ready to soar once again. Philadelphia picked up a plum DB in Asante Samuel, one of the five best players at his position. He'll be a good match with ballhawk Lito Shepard. For those thinking about the Eagles at Ov.8.5, a return to health of Brian Dawkins would go a long way in making this a more relaxing wager. S Quinton Mikell is above average in the passing game and excellent versus the run.

Remember just a few years ago when if Indianapolis didn't hurry the quarterback, their mildly vanilla defensive backfield schemes could be picked apart? Those days are in the rearview mirror, with the corner combo of Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson. Both have good size (6'0, 195) and are ideally suited to play in Tony Dungy's defense. Backing them up is the best safety in football, Bob Sanders. The diminutive former Iowa Hawkeye is the ultimate enforcer, throwing around his body to make plays. Playing in the rugged AFC South makes the total of 11 wins a tough call either way, but should the Colts fall short, it won't be because of defensive backfield.

The Miami Dolphins were hands-down the worst team in football last season with a 1-15 record. The atmosphere in South Florida is changing with Bill Parcells running the show. This is a team with few talented players and nothing is more glaring than in the defensive backfield. In grading the corners and safeties separately, the only team even close to being this awful is New Orleans. Head coach Tony Sparano has expressed faith in corner Will Allen, yet he has to swallow hard with the thought of lining up Travis Daniels or Andre Goodman on the other side. Yeremiah Bell is an injury-prone safety and the rest of the group is only known to team officials and the player's parents. Given the choice of Over/Under 5.5 on the Dolphins based on secondary play, only one wager makes sense.

An NBA Finals Debate
By Doug Upstone and Steve Makinen, Statfox.com
6-4-08

The NBA Finals will start on Thursday in Boston and not unexpectedly, StatFox Steve and StatFox Doug see this series very differently. Since both have been very busy of late, making it impossible to get them together for a StatFox Scuffle, we thought we would throw questions at them about the Finals and let them share their feelings. Always insightful and never dull, here is what our guys had to say about crowning an NBA champion.

Were you surprised to see the Lakers at -200 favorites for the series?

StatFox Steve: I was very surprised to see Los Angeles as a favorite at all. I think oddsmakers are putting way more stock into what has happened in the postseason than the entire body of work for 2007-08. Let’s not forget, Boston won 66 games in the regular season and was the cream of the crop in the NBA from start to finish.

StatFox Doug: I wasn’t surprised the Lakers were favored to win the Finals, what did surprise me was the first couple of sportsbooks I looked at had Kobe and company at -160, which meant they were wagered heavily. Some might be shocked to see the Lakers favored at all, with regular season record and owning home court advantage, but Los Angeles played in tougher conference and has been by appearance, the best team in the playoffs.

Matchups are extremely important during the playoffs, who has the edge in the backcourt?

SF Doug: Obvious edge here to the Lakers, just having Kobe Bryant. Ray Allen will try to guard Bryant; however it will be fruitless task. Allen responsibility will be to stay within single digits of Bryant on offense, negating his considerable edge. Allen has shot better in recent games and will be fully rested, providing him energy. The other matchup might be more a mismatch. Rajon Rondo is a 50-50 or 60-40 guy. For every brilliant play he makes, he’ll do something equally dumb or on his better games be more proficient 60 percent of the time. Derek Fisher has seen every type of player in his career and will play a few mental games with Rondo.

SF Steve: I think anytime you have a player like Kobe Bryant on the court for a team, that team is going to have the advantage in terms of discussing particular matchups. Unless Cassell is able to step up his play and be a bigger factor in this series, the Lakers are going to have a large talent, execution, and experience edge in this area. Bryant & Derek Fisher boast a wealth of playoff experience, while for Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, this is a first Finals trip.

What about the frontcourt?

SF Steve: Los Angeles has a decent frontcourt with Gasol and Odom being very versatile big men, but Garnett and Pierce make up an elite forward-center combo. I think the ability to produce most of their points in this area gives the Celtics a sizeable edge in this area. Plus, Garnett is one of the league’s best defensive players. Gasol is thought of as soft on that end of the court. He is going to have to be very tough physically in the series to contain K.G.

SF Doug: This could be the swing aspect of the series. If Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and almost more importantly, Kendrick Perkins play their best, they will place a great deal of pressure on the Lakers frontline. The L.A. frontcourt has players like Paul Gasol and Lamar Odom who are not always mentally in the game. If things start getting rough underneath how will they respond? Overall, this category has to favor Boston, but difficult to determine by what measure.

What team has more weapons coming off the bench?

SF Doug: This is a decided edge for the Lakers. Sasha Vujacic can be instant offense off the bench and bring energy. At 6’7, the Celtics have nobody to guard him off screens and he has competent understanding of the Triangle-offense. Jordan Farmar can be tenacious defender and Luke Walton seemingly can provide whatever coach Phil Jackson needs. This style of play in this series would seem to favor Walton’s talents. Boston counters with Eddie House and Sam Cassell, hard time seeing either making significant contributions. If the C’s are to negate the Lakers advantage off the pine, it will have to come from Leon Powe, P.J. Brown or James Posey. Expect Lakers to have double digit edge in most games off the bench.

SF Steve: So much of what Boston does comes from its starting five and in particular the “Big Three”. Los Angeles has a number of more qualified role players from which to get contributions from. I guess I’d have to give the bench edge to the Lakers, although with the number of minutes the Celtics starters play, I don’t think this will have a big role in the series. The Finals games are spread out fairly evenly allowing for ample rest. Let’s face it; both teams are fatigued at this point in the year due to playing 100+ games.

How big a part will coaching have in the Finals?

SF Steve: The teams know each other by now after playing so many games, so only the little adjustments that the coaches make can be a difference. Phil Jackson’s experience plus the fact that he boasts a player that takes the game into his own hands in Bryant gives him the edge.

SF Doug: There is a reason why only six coaches have won the last 21 NBA titles. They have the best teams and know how to push the right buttons of professional basketball players. The skill or lack of is more noticeable in the postseason for head coaches, as the subtlety of adjustments is on display from game to game. If you’ve listening to the coaches in the huddles, Phil Jackson devises plays and is essentially, coaching. Boston’s Doc Rivers, on the other hand is more a cheerleader and life coach, asking his players to keep pushing, giving effort. Rivers does have a staff that is very solid at X’s and O’s, yet on the game’s biggest stage, Jackson is head and shoulders above Rivers.

Steve, seeing you like Boston, what will your Exact Games wager be?

You know, I like the fact that Boston was able to come up with two wins in Detroit in the East Finals. It put to rest any thoughts that the Celtics couldn’t win on the road in the playoffs after being the league’s best road team in the regular season. This confidence is what makes the difference in the series to me. I don’t expect the Celtics to sweep the games at home, and I don’t expect them to lose all the games on the road. Therefore, I’ll be looking Sportsbook.com at just over 4-1 odds in a Game 7 in Boston, going with the home folks.

I think Boston has incredible value as a series underdog here. The Celtics have been the team to beat from wire-to-wire and 66 wins in the regular season is all the evidence you need to support that. They were 25-5 against the supposedly better Western Conference this year, including 2-0 against Los Angeles. In fact, the two wins in the regular season came by 13 & 19 points. I also think you need to consider the fact that Boston has been a much better team defensively this season than the Lakers. The fact that Los Angeles yields over 101 PPG & 44.4% FG shooting is clearly a concern. In their run to the Finals, they beat a Denver team whose defense is an afterthought, a Utah team that saves its best effort for the offensive end, and a tired San Antonio club. Meanwhile, the Celtics escaped Atlanta then played through two rugged series’ against strong defensive minded clubs. L.A.’s defense will be a walk in the park after that. All of that, plus home court advantage has me backing Boston.

Doug you’re backing the Lakers, what is wager on the same bet?

I’m taking Los Angeles in six at 15-4 odds to be crowned champions for a 10^th time since moving to SoCal. Many will bring up the Celtics beat the Lakers twice during the regular season and by double digits to boot. For those with short memories, Cleveland beat San Antonio twice last season and how did those finals conclude? One aspect to remember is star power. What player can take over a game in the fourth quarter to lead his team to victory? Has Kevin Garnett shown that quality often in the playoffs? What about Paul Pierce? Than you have the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant. His name is now frequently mentioned with Michael Jordan, for mental toughness and clutch performances. With three rings already, he can even the score with Shaq, don’t think that’s not important. Take a look at all the teams that have won the NBA championship since 1980 and each had the best coach, with the best player, with one exception (Detroit- 2004) in 37 years. Los Angeles celebrates.

Who are you picking for series MVP?

SF Steve: Garnett. K.G. is going to be a load in the middle for the Lakers to contain. He is equally effective on both ends of the court as well and is probably the league best long term veteran player who has yet to sniff the finals. He is heady and experienced enough to take advantage of this opportunity. Though he might not be Boston’s leading scorer for the series, I think he will be its most important player and I’ll take him at 5-2 odds.

SF Doug: Actually at 1-2, it’s impossible to bet on Kobe, but there is little doubt in my mind he is the man and walks off with daily double of season and series MVP.

0-2 NBA Teams are a Fair Wager
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

In Thursday evening action, three different NBA squads will look to squelch persistent rumors of their eminent demise, attempting to come back from 0-2 deficits in the NBA postseason. Both Washington and Toronto will be given an opportunity to succeed in part because noted NBA announcer, former player and Dr. Phil of TNT, Charles Barkley said for the 356, 813 time, “The playoffs series don’t begin until the home team losses.” With information to the contrary, as first round, first game victors win series just over 81 percent of the time, it might be best to give Chuckles a free meal card and watch what happens.

Of the 0-2 starters, at least Toronto covered a game, which is more than you can say for either Washington or Houston. The Raptors outscored Orlando 25-21 in the fourth quarter and were on missed Chris Bosh 17-foot shot in the final seconds away from tying the series. They did cover the six point spread and will need to make one major adjustment and possibly another.

In the first 12 minutes of the games in the playoffs, Toronto has been outscored 78-41, anything remotely close to those numbers again and it’s time to put away dinosaurs’ jersey and slap on Blue Jays hat. "The way we're starting games is just unacceptable," said Bosh. The Raptors are 17-6 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog.

With best-of-seven series resuming north of the border, coach Sam Mitchell said he will trot out a new starting lineup. It will mark the second change in three games. Andrea Bargnani was inserted into the lineup for Game 1. Mitchell wouldn't say what lineup switches he was contemplating ("You watched the game, so use some common sense," was how he put it after Tuesday's game), but it's probably safe to speculate that Rasho Nesterovic, might find himself coming off the bench and that T.J. Ford might join him in a backup role.

Whether Mitchell uses Jason Kapono or Carlos Delfino in Nesterovic's place is debatable, it could be that the coach decides to chuck the whole "big" approach and pull both Nesterovic and Andrea Bargnani, since Dwight Howard is doing whatever he wants anyway.

The point guard situation is dicey as Jose Calderon sparked Toronto's late surge in Game two. No matter who starts for Raptors, they’ll have to do it against the league’s number three road team, who was 27-14 SU and ATS.

Bookmaker.com has Toronto as four-point choice with total of 202, with Raptors 4-1 SU and ATS hosting Magic.

Washington has played with all the brains of infamous movie filmmaker Uwe Boll, calling out his critics. DeShawn Stevenson (yea that DeShawn Stevenson) called LeBron James overrated before the series and then the Wizards tried to make King James a human ping-pong ball, bouncing off various Washington players. This just in, James is not Dirk Nowitzki, the rough stuff doesn’t bother him.

In spite of their bombastic salutations, Washington has lost eight consecutive playoff games to Cleveland dating to 2006 (2-5-1 ATS), the third-longest such streak in league history. Now the question is do the Wizards believe it is possible to even beat the Cavs.

Washington is listed as five-point favorites, in spite of being 1-9 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive losses. The Wizards go to the basket like they are trying to gently balance a quarter on the rim, as opposed to James and other Cavs players who have been rattling the basket standard. The Wizards are an ordinary three point shooting team at just over 35 percent, however Cleveland has taken away that aspect of the Wizards game, as they have converted only nine of 40 attempts (22.5 percent). The Cavaliers are 16-7 ATS in road games versus teams who make six or more 3-point shots a game on the season.

For both Toronto and Washington, the best news might be home teams down 0-2 are 31-18-1 ATS in last 50 games of the opening round.

For the Rockets it’s a simple case of, “Houston, we have a problem.” The 22-game winning streaked masked a number of issues for the Houston Rockets and the loss of point guard Rafer Alston only brought them to the surface. Tracy McGrady gave it everything he had in Game Two for three quarters, but was held to one point in the final stanza, visibly spent late in the game. Unfortunately, no Rocket-booster is available to come off the bench, leaving them on the launch pad, now 0-7 ATS in last seven first round playoff games.

Utah has to feel ultra-confident and is 11-3 ATS in home games after having won four of their last five games this season. The Jazz own the best home record (37-4) in the NBA and best spread mark at 28-12-1 ATS. For Jerry Sloan’s squad, it’s about taking care of business and grounding the Rockets in four, earning valuable down time in the dastardly Western Conference.

Utah is a 8.5-point pick and is involved in winning system that suggest to Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This system is 44 up and 16 down, 73.3 percent the last 12 seasons.

Looking Ahead at NFL Schedule

By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com
4-23-08

You have to hand to the NFL, two and a half months after the last meaningful football game was played and more than three months before training camps open, they have managed to be the most talked about sport on the day they released their schedule for the 2008 season. This dominated the conversation on talk radio from coast-to-coast and ESPN took up two hours of prime real estate to bring Chris Carter and Ron Jaworski into your living rooms to discuss all the possibilities.

Our preference here at the StatFox is to deal in realities, since trying to guess what will be the top games for next season is nearly impossible, especially trying to come up with complete list. Consider only 20 of the last 36 teams (55.5 percent) the last three years have made the NFL playoffs the following year. It was easy to pinpoint a regular season contest between New England at Indianapolis on Nov.4 was going to be an important game; however nobody could have forecasted a late November Green Bay at Dallas tilt would have almost as much importance. In April, we just have to stick with the facts and for those who wager, facts, as opposed to speculation, win far more bets.

The AFC North draws the NFC East, contributing to them having four teams in the top eight in toughest schedules for upcoming season, based on 2007 results. The four teams will face opponents that had a combined record of 574-540, a 56 percent winning percentage.

Pittsburgh drew the most challenging lot at 153-103, 59.8 percent. The Steelers, besides drawing the always competitive NFC East, and having six rugged divisional battles, also picked up four encounters with arguably professional football’s best division, the AFC South. Throw in matchups at New England on Nov.30 and Pitt hosting San Diego two weeks prior and a pretty easy argument can be made today, coach Mike Tomlin will have 16 games he will have to prepare his squad for, with nary a break. Blindly looking at complete schedule, the only Pittsburgh game that might be (+) or (-) seven points or higher is the Patriots.

Indianapolis on paper falls into the number two spot, taking on opponents with 152-104 mark. Their own division figures to have bumpy contests, yet somebody still has to step up and prove they can beat the Colts, otherwise until further notice; they are still the kings of the division. Indianapolis will be playing in new stadium, which to a certain degree negates home field advantage, especially in the front part of the schedule. The Colts, like the rest of division, will take on the NFC North, making their claim as having the second toughest schedule hard to read, as these teams have been volatile the last few seasons. After a bye in Week four, Indy will play four of next six on the road. They will venture to towns like, Houston, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Between travels to the Titans and Steelers, that team from the Boston area, will return for another early November visit.

For conspiracy theorists, who can’t stand New England, their schedule is tailor made for those thinking the NFL is covering up something, like the folks who talk about Roswell, New Mexico. Of course all schedules are based on formulas predetermined, still when a team goes thru the regular season undefeated and faces teams that were 99-157 (38.7 percent), its hard not to raise an eyebrow. The Patriots would have more taxing slate if the teams in there own division would supply more competitive games. New England was 12-5 ATS most recently in the AFC East, before oddsmakers threw a couple of 20+ numbers for them to overcome against the Jets and Miami. Owner Robert Kraft’s club also drew the West Divisions from each conference, both who presently look average at best. It will be interesting to see how the organization approaches four trips to the Pacific Time zone, as they have two sets of these. Will they stay out West to prepare for a second game in that area or do they add to wear and tear of flying back and forth?

Don’t expect oddsmakers to cut bettors any slack on the Pats. After putting gargantuan numbers late last season, they won’t hesitate a second to do so again to balance or place the action in their favor.

Moving on, questions are raised about the importance of trying to determine what schedules mean before a single game is played. One area to dig into is how Super Bowl champions perform the next season. In breaking down the last six Lombardi trophy winners, there schedule of opponents winning percentage turned out be pretty accurate, after the season, as compared to before the year started. The largest gap was the 2003 Patriots who had the eighth toughest schedule coming in and exited with the 22^nd hardest leaving. The difference was 52.7 percent compared to 48.4 percent. For New York Giants backers and those seeking an edge, this was the only team of the prior five Super Bowl champs to post a winning spread record the next season, as they marched to back-to-back titles. The other four champs were 29-34-1 ATS.

2007 Giants TBD

2006 Indianapolis 12-4 8-8 ATS

2005 Pittsburgh 8-8 7-9 ATS

2004 New England 10-6 8-8 ATS

2003 New England 14-2 11-3-2 ATS

2002 Tampa Bay 7-9 6-9-1 ATS

The next question pertains to the most difficult schedules prior to the season, what does it mean for a teams record and against the spread? One element that has to be mentioned is the relative strength of the team. If any NFL squad is already a poor outfit, a more arduous slate will likely prevent any real gains in terms of wins and losses. If another club is a perennial playoff contender, they could be affected either positively or negatively, based on how they play in conjunction with higher grade of opposition.

In 2007, Oakland came into the season with worst record and hardest schedule. The Silver and Black showed modest improvement, raising record to 4-12 and 6-10 ATS. Buffalo was tied with the Raiders, facing most burdensome sked and was 7-9 with 10-6 ATS mark. In 2006, The Giants were off a playoff season was tied with Cincinnati with he most grueling card. New York, after a fast start, faded late and had to win last game of the regular season to finish 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS), to return to postseason. The Bengals were believed to be the team on the rise; however the scheduling gods got them and they were 8-8, with 8-7-1 ATS record. Overall, the last 11 teams that went into the year with the most strenuous slate were 85-83-8 against the spread.

A few sportsbooks will offer props on teams to make the playoffs. If you can find one that lists any of the teams that have the hardest schedule, should you place wager for or against? It would not be wise to book a hotel in Pittsburgh for a Steelers postseason party, as only three of the last 11 teams that played trying agenda made the playoffs.

The opposite end of the spectrum will come into question again in 2008. Teams that have had the easiest program to work around have only made the playoffs once of the last seven squads trying to work through what was thought to be easier schedule. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks at 10-6, made the NFL playoffs. This was a sorry grouping, with 44-68 record and 50-60-2 ATS mark.

A few observations………….

Bettors will have plenty of time to see what they think about Green Bay starting another quarterback for the first time since 1992, when Aaron Rodgers goes under center on Sept. 8, a Monday night affair with division foe Minnesota.

This is just the beginning, as Buffalo will start with one “home” game in Toronto on Dec.7. With Buffalo’s decaying population and reports as many a 20 percent of season ticket holders coming from north of the border, look for the Bills to have similar arrangement the Packers used to have with Milwaukee in divvying up home games.

Chicago drew the unwanted honor of being the only team to play three consecutive road games, though none are far away. In order, the Bears are at Green Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota. Conversely, the NFL schedule maker rewards them with three straight home contests right afterwards in December. The first two are against warm weather-types, Jacksonville and New Orleans in five days, on a Sunday-Thursday swing. If Da Bears could win both at Soldiers Field, they will have 11 days to prepare for Favre-less Packers.

San Diego will accumulate the most frequent flyer miles, a whopping 33, 516 air miles. The Chargers will make four trips into the Eastern Time zone, plus a sojourn to London. At least the league sort of helped out San Diego in regards to flying to England, playing in Buffalo the week before, shortening distance dramatically, if not improving home lives.

In Current Form in the NBA

By Jim Kruger

3-24-08

The phrase “in current form” has a number of more descriptive alternative phrases such as “in the zone”, “out of whack”, “they are hot” or “they are colder than…...”, (you fill in the rest of that last one). Years ago when I performed stand-up comedy, some descriptions of how you were doing were “he’s killing them” and “look at his flop sweat”. Dying on stage is one of the loneliest and worst experiences a person can ever go through.

Many times you hear a handicapper talk about a team’s current form. What does that exactly mean? Well, it can probably mean a lot of different things as current form is in the eyes of the beholder. Perhaps it is a team that has lost a number of games in a row straight-up. Maybe the handicapper is talking about just the ATS margin recently or whether the team is shooting well or poorly. Let’s look at a number of differing manners of a team’s “current form”.

The recent Houston Rockets long winning streak had me curious on what angles I could find that would make me some money when a team is in such excellent “current form”. It truly was an amazing streak the Rockets had especially without having their All-Star center, Yao Ming, on the court for a good portion of it. The fact that his replacement is the shot-blocking finger-wagging Dikembe Mutombo, who is even more challenged offensively than Ben Wallace and who I believe is a member of AARP, is even more impressive. Mutombo had only played in 14 of Houston’s previous 56 games scoring a total of 7 points.

Let’s look at a team that is on a ten-game or more winning streak straight-up. First thing to remember is that teams that go on prolonged winning streaks are almost always very good teams. However, just because a team is a “good squad” doesn’t always equate to dollars in the pockets of sports bettors. You need to look beneath the covers a little more to find the money-making opportunities.

An against the spread (ATS) angle of our team in excellent form winning ten or more games in a row that has cashed tickets at a 68% rate over the past three seasons is to play on the winning team if their previous game was at home and the current game is still at home. Any other combination of locations of the two games gives you a not-so-good percentage of winners at 44.9% overall. This is one time the saying “there is no place like home” means money in the bank to us.

Continuing to dig deeper, we find a super-profitable betting angle happens after a team has been on a winning streak of 10 games or more and then they lose a game. They were riding this surf of victories and with every additional win, the pressure increased to win the next game. The team finally loses a game and the pressure to maintain the streak is immediately removed with a thud.

How does the team react in their very next game? Will they have the fortitude to “start another streak” or will they be so relieved the mounting pressure is gone that they will not be as focused and not play as good of game?

Over the past three seasons, when a team has had a ten-game or longer winning streak stop, in the game after that loss, the Over-Under the lined total is an amazing 17-5, a 77.3% winning angle to bet on the Over. The SU and ATS record of our team with the broken winning streak is nothing outstanding on betting on or against that team.

How about a team that is “hot” and has won at least 8 of its last 10 games. Since the beginning of the 2005 season, our hot team is going to win their next game straight-up 65.6% of the time. That is without any additional qualifiers, such as location or the line value, etc. Of course the straight-up numbers don’t mean too much to the sports bettor.

The “hot team” does go Under the lined total in that 11^th game 54.8% of the time, 440-363. If you make it a conference road game for our team in good current form, the Under improves to 57.8%, 159-116.

Another winning angle over the same time frame is when a cold team, one that has lost two straight games and failed to cover in each of them, is now playing a hot team, one that has won their previous two games and covered the point spread in each. Our cold team is playing at home and is favored. Betting against the cold team provides us with a 63.2% winning mark of 43-25. If the cold team is favored by less than 8 points, your winning percentage improves to 66.7%.

An example of poor current form is when a team starts shooting poorly over a few games. Is it just an aberration or do they find their touch again and start heading back to the norm? Here we are looking at a team not in good current form as they have shot 40% or worse from the field in three straight games.

While the cold-shooting team’s field goal percentage improves to a 44.0% average in their next game, they are a play against team to a 61.8% rate. A 75% winning play over the past three seasons is to take the Under on our cold team if the game is being played on the road.

Let’s look at the opposite now and see what is out there to profit from when a team is burning the nets shooting 50%+ for three straight games. This has happened 124 times over the past three seasons. Overall, there is nothing worth betting on but if you add where the game is being played we find a nice 66% ticket-cashing angle: The team that is setting the nylon chords on fire is a 33-17 ATS mark to bet against if the game is being played at home.

Perhaps they have become a little overconfident while sinking such a high percentage of baskets, especially with the game in the comforts of their own arena in front of their own cheering fans, and aren’t as focused in their next game. Apparently that is the case as if they are on the road they cover the point spread 55.4% of the time after such a good three-game span shooting well.

We dig just a hair deeper and have this hot-shooting team winning those three previous games. If they have won those three previous games and are on the road, our winning percentage betting on the team goes up to 67.5% from the 55.4%. We do have a go-against angle on this team if they are at home as it covers 69.6% of the time betting against the hot-shooting team.

Knowing the current form of a team can be profitable and help you avoid the “flop sweat” of going on a sports-betting losing streak.

Winning NCAA Tournament Angles

By Jim Kruger

3-15-08

Growing up in Kansas City and being a diehard Jayhawk basketball fan, I went to the University of Kansas Basketball Camp run by then head coach, Ted Owens. Outside of the visits of Boston Celtic great and former KU All-American, Jo Jo White, one of the best highlights of every camp was watching film of the 1957 NCAA legendary Championship Game between Kansas and the University of North Carolina. KU had Wilt Chamberlain but the Tar Heels had coach Frank McGuire who devised a defense to neutralize one of the greatest scorers all of basketball has ever seen. McGuire coupled his collapsing defense with extended delays and holding the ball in the pre-shot clock days.

McGuire had revenge against Kansas as he had lost the national championship game to the Jayhawks in 1952 when he was coaching St. Johns. Thus, McGuire was not above using mind games to gain any advantage his team could. Reminiscent of baseball’s Bill Veeck sending a midget to bat in a game, McGuire had his smallest starter, guard Tommy Kearns, not even six-foot tall, jump center at the beginning of the game against the 7-1 Big Dipper. Ironically, Kearns and Chamberlain became very good friends later in life with investment banker Kearns handling many of Wilt’s investments.

North Carolina beat Kansas in triple overtime, 54-53, in one of the greatest championship games of all time. Wilt would never win a national championship and left Kansas after his next season to join the Harlem Globetrotters.

This year we very well could see some games that achieve legendary status. For people who wager money on individual March Madness games and who live and die by the point spread or the lined total in a game, the winner of the contest doesn’t always make a difference. Legendary status to the sports bettor can be earned by a meaningless basket in the closing seconds of a game by a third-stringer or a bad call by a referee that changes the complexion of the game.

I have looked at the past ten years of every game played in the NCAA Tournament from 1998 to last year in trying to discover some trends, edges, or advantages that can help us return a profit in this year’s tournament. Just because certain results, trends, or tendencies appear in the past, it is no guarantee that they will continue this year. If that was the case, there would be a lot more people making very good money betting sports.

However, we are looking at a very good sample size of data which gives our study validity. Using small sample sizes or results over a very short period of time are shortcomings many handicappers exhibit in their work in breaking down games.

As always, I like to start with a baseline of results to work from. First, let’s just look at the results against the point spread and versus the lined total each round over the past ten years combined has recorded.

In the opening round, it is almost an exact 50% result against the spread (ATS) with a record of 163-158 with four pushes. However, it appears there is a very profitable betting angle wagering on the lined total to go Over or Under (OU). With the OU results, we only have nine years of data as there were not lined totals offered back in the first year of our data, 1998. Also, as a point of reference, Las Vegas did not offer odds on UNLV games in the Rebels 1998 and 2000 games in the NCAA Tournament. That did change shortly thereafter and all UNLV games do have point spreads and lined totals.

In the opening round over the past nine years, blindly betting the Under would have given you a sweet profit on a record of 191-132 Under, 59.1% winners!
In Round 2, betting on the lower seed now turns a profit winning 54.4% of the time, 86-72-2 ATS. We still are profitable betting the Under, however we have dropped to a winning rate of 53.5% on a 85-74-1 mark.

Moving on to the Sweet 16 gives us two profitable trends. Again, betting on the lower seed has us winning 43 times out of 75 games, 57.3%. The gravy train betting the Under continues with 61.5% winners, 48-30-2.

The lower seeds are very profitable in the Elite 8 round, 26-12-2, 68.4%. Interestingly enough, our Under meal ticket goes against us for the first time, with the Overs cashing 59.1% of the time, 23-16-1.

The Elite 8 round has a 13-7 mark, 65%, in favor of the higher seed. The Under is back to being profitable with a 7-12-1 OU mark, 63.2%. There were two games with equal seeds playing each other with 1-1 ATS and 1-1 OU records.

The Finals had three occasions with both teams being #1 seeds. Eliminating those results, we are 5-2 ATS betting on the higher seed and 4-3 OU.

Here is a chart with each round based on the higher seed being the team of record:

The Higher Seed By Round

Won

Loss

Push

Over

Under

Push

Round 1

163

158

4

132

159

4

Round 2

72

86

2

74

69

1

Sweet 16

32

43

5

30

40

2

Elite 8

12

26

2

23

112

1

Semi-Final

13

7

0

7

10

1

Final

6

4

0

6

3

0

Total

298

324

13

272

356

9

Now it is time to drill down and see what else we can uncover. Other ways we want to look at the results are:

     * How do teams from smaller conferences do against their larger counter parts?
     * What are the results of teams in certain price ranges?
     * Are there any tendencies of Totals depending upon the lined number?

A very good way to get a quick look at how certain conferences perform is to group the conferences by perceived general strength. We have four conference ratings: A, B, C, and D. The conferences for each group rating are as follows:

A: ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC, and PAC 10
B: Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and the WAC

C: Big Sky, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Metro Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt, West
Coast Conference

D: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Ivy League, Mid-Continent (now Summit), Mid-
                    Eastern, Northeastern, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC.

An argument can be made regarding the ratings of the conferences. Perhaps the most compelling would be the West Coast Conference being in the “C” group. Sure, Gonzaga is in the WCC and emerging power St. Mary’s is also. However, our ratings go back ten years. We have to average the entire conference over this extended period of time.

First, let’s look how conferences do against equally rated conferences. The value of taking the lower rated seed when “A” conferences meet each other is evident with the 57.5% ATS rate, 119-88. Playing the Under has a small advantage at 109-98, 52.7%.

There are no discernible advantages when the lower rated conferences meet each other and there really is not a very large result set.

When our highest rated conference group plays a “B” or “C” conference, again, results that show no edge ATS or OU. However, when the “A” group goes against the lowest rated squads, they do cover 55.7% of the time, 54-97. But, the most profitable wager found in comparing conference groups is playing the Under when an “A”, one of the “Big Six”, goes against a regularly non-lined “D” group. You normally don’t find a 70%+ winning blind wager but that is what you have in this mismatch of talent.

While we don’t have a large result set when the higher seed is the “B” conference group, there are a couple of edges there. The “B” group only covers the spread in 12 of 30 games, a paltry 40% winning ATS rate. The Under is 19-11. a nice 63.3% winning rate when you play it that way.

In examining results by what the line is, there are some opportunities that arise. We are ignoring what round it is, only concerned about the point spread and the results. There is nothing exciting about the ATS results when a team is favored by 20+ points, but the OU is 28-21 in favor of the Under, 57.1%.

Similar results are obtained when a team is favored by 15 to 19.5 points, regardless of the round.
An 18-17 ATS record produces nothing but a 13-22 OU mark gives us an edge worth considering.

Some good stuff shows up when we take a peek at -9.5 to -14.5 point spreads in the Big Dance. Taking the points gives you a nice winning mark of 58-40, 60.2%. Even more profitable is playing the Under with a 62-37 ticket cashing record. Obviously, the better team is able to shut the weaker underdog down more times than not and not only get the cover but also throttle the other team defensively enough to get the Under.

Moving the favorite into three possession territory and you don’t have anything outstanding, however the favorite did cover 54.5% of the time.

Going into a two possession line range and we have some results that are worth noting. The underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points has a record of 77-63, 55.0%. The Under is more profitable with an 82-61 tally, 57.3%.

Underdogs in a one-possession line, pick’em to +3, win at a 54.3% clip. Definitely not strong enough to look too seriously at but still it is an edge.

I did think that when the higher seed is an underdog to the lower seed that the results would show a significant spread-covering advantage for the disrespected higher seed. I was disappointed when the ten-year scorecard was virtually a 50% wager. But, I will remember that when the higher seed is a dog up to three points that the Under cashes 31 out of 49 times, 61.2%.

As someone who enjoys playing totals and firmly believes it is one of the areas in sports betting that has some of the best potential for profits, I thought there might be some eye-opening trends based upon the lined total in an NCAA Tournament game.

I was immediately rewarded with an exceptionally strong winning trend, albeit with a small sample size, with games with a lined total of 160 or higher. Does a 10-1 ATS record for the higher seed make it worth you while to remember this trend? The one loser happened in 1999 and was the only game with a #1 seed playing a #16 seed, Duke squaring off against Florida A&M. Duke was a 46.5 point favorite, which also happens to be the most points given to a team over the past ten years of the NCAA Tournament. Duke missed covering the line by six points.

I was surprised that games with totals in the 150’s finished virtually in an exact even OU. However, the lower seed in such a game did cover the spread 61.0% of the time, 47 out of 77 games.

The Under was a winner with a 55.6% frequency to games lined in the 140’s while the Over cashed your ticket 55.9% of the time with a total in the 130’s. As we moved down into the 120’s, the Under was 54-40, 57.4%, with the lower seed covering the point spread 55.9% of the time. Below 120 saw the Under with a 13-6 record.

If you are wondering if the round of the tournament made any difference regarding the outcome of playing the Over and Under, you will be happy to know that it definitely does!

In the opening round with a lined total in the 140’s, just playing the Under blindly would have given you 64% winners, 55-31. Betting the Over would happen on games with a total in the 130’s in the opening round is not quite as lucrative, but a 60-41 record will keep you coming back for more! A winning rate of 63.6% comes up with the Under when the total is less than 120 in Round 1. Sometimes it pays to do your research!

Although there are only 13 games that fall into this result set, another nice tidbit I uncovered was playing the Under in the Sweet 16 round when the total is in the 120’s gave you a winning record of 10-3.

Are there any opening rounds that have some land mines in them, rounds that have a strong tendency towards one side or the other or to the Over or Under? Yes, and your tireless reporter has uncovered those! How about when the #2 seed plays the #15 seed? Good ol’ #2 has only covered 15 out of 39 times with one push. And, even better, the Under has a superb record of 24-12. (remember, in 1998 there were no posted totals.)

The winning angle on the Under continues with the 3-14 opening round, a tidy 23-13 mark, 63.9%. The Under continues to come in a winner, now at a 60% pace, for the opening round with the #6 and #7 seeds.

The only other sides that showed any distinct advantage was betting on the #3 and #4 seeds in their first games, combing for a 55.7% winning ATS mark.

How about the conferences living outside of the Big Six, especially the small conferences. How have they fared? There are a few that show a profit when you are backing them. The Colonial Athletic Association jumps forward with a 13-5 ATS record being led by Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason, and UNC-Wilmington. They have also produced a 12-6 OU mark.

Excluding play-in games, the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference has only won one NCAA Tournament game straight-up, that memorable one-point Hampton win over Iowa State in 2001. However, they do have a nice 8-2 ATS record coupled with a 2-7 OU mark the past ten seasons.

I realize most people cannot name a team from the America East Conference, but if you knew they were 3-7-1 ATS the past ten seasons you might learn that Vermont and Albany are conference members.

When a Mountain West team is the lower seed, it pays to bet against them to the tune of 13-6 ATS.

Even though the Ivy League beats everybody in smarts, they don’t with their pocketbook as they are 1-9 ATS and 3-6 OU since 1998.

Conference USA has not been a money-maker going 27-38 ATS be it the higher or lower seed in a game.

Large conferences that have done well as the lower seed include the Big 12 at 30-20, Big East at 28-20, and the SEC at 26-14.

I have supplied a ton of data, a bunch of profitable trends that the casual and sophisticated sports bettor should pay attention to. After all, if you have the edge, you should be able to grind out some profits and make this just as memorable of NCAA Tournament as it was to the Tar Heel Tommy Kearns and the University of North Carolina fans and players over 50 years ago.

Betting Future Winner of NCAA Tournament

The field of 65 is set; you like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spread helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about home run wager, picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament, which can offer a decent payout depending on the winner.

Even with the large field, most years, around 12 teams have legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash, betting futures. In the last decade, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.

Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in there own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.

Jimmy Dykes, an analyst for ESPN, in February introduced another process, to help pick the national champion of college basketball. Dykes played for the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team and graduated in 1985. He has been an assistant coach at schools like Kentucky, Oklahoma State and his alma mater, along with being a scout for Seattle in the NBA.

Dykes is teamed with Brad Nessler and has been given the green light this season to be more personality-oriented and has had very interesting observations throughout the season. He went back researched what characteristics make up a national champ. Here is his list and what has occurred.

7 of 7 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak

18 of 20 past champions had NBA player 6’8 or taller

19 of 20 past champions had NBA guard

7 of 10 past champions won conference tournament

It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 21 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule there way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketballs hierarchy.

Number of consecutive wins:

26 – Memphis

21- Drake

20 – Davidson, Kansas

18- North Carolina

16- Vanderbilt, Cornell

14- Washington State

13- Indiana

12 – Duke

11- Xavier, Texas, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee and Western Kentucky

10- Clemson, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Wisconsin and South Alabama

Absent from this list are such notable teams like UCLA, Georgetown, Louisville and Stanford, all teams that will be in anyone’s discussion of eventual champions of college hoops.

The next two points have to do with one of the key ingredients and really why the higher seeds have dominated this tournament, talent. Dykes had the revisionist ability to look back and see if different players had the skill and ability to play at the next level. For our purposes, we can only surmise what looks to be accurate, without having full knowledge.

Having a taller player with NBA ability allows teams to score points in the paint and likely grab more offensive and defensive rebounds. Having a guard with professional basketball ability, means any or all of three things can happen. The guard can create dribble penetration to either score or set-up teammates to score. He has the ability to take over games at this level, by individual play and can win a game or two literally by himself, when the team is struggling.

In reviewing above list, Memphis has Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose in the backcourt. It would be a shock, if both don’t play at the next level. John Dorsey and Robert Dozier should make somebody’s roster.

The next two teams of this group are Drake and Davidson, who have talented, smart college players who have a wonderful understanding of how to play the game. Josh Young and Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Emmenecker are splendid talents, that don’t have the size to make it in NBA. The Bulldogs have unique frontcourt college players, which doesn’t transfer well when moving up. Davidson has a player of pedigree in Stephen Curry, whose dad Dell, played a long time in the NBA. The younger Curry has NBA-range, but is frail looking as 6’2 or 6’3 shooting guard.

Kansas, like Memphis, has three NBA players on the roster, in guard Brandon Rush and forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, both 6’8 or taller. Even Sasha Kahn is being talked about as a nice backup center at the next level. North Carolina is next and has bountiful talent, yet in truth, is border-line in using this assessment. Tyler Hansbrough will play in NBA, but the guard position is more questionable. Wayne Ellington, Marcus Ginyard, and Danny Green all show moments of brilliance, buts does it transfer out of college basketball? Ty Lawson is phenomenal talent, nonetheless is listed as 5’11. Ellington is a very good shooter and will in all likelihood be NBA player. Don’t misunderstand, North Carolina is odds on favorite, it is just using aforementioned criteria.

In breaking down many of the other clubs, most come short. Cornell has exceptional Ivy League talent. Xavier, Michigan State, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Duke and South Alabama all have one very good player and several that are above average collegiate players.

Tennessee, Indiana and Connecticut all have substantial NBA-type players. For the Vols, it is Wayne Chism near the basket and more likely JuJuan Smith than Chris Lofton at guard position. The Hoosiers have D.J. White, who had superb senior season and freshman Eric Gordon, who should stay at IU for another year of seasoning. UConn has ever-improving center Hasheem Thabeet and guard A.J. Price, who past the eyeball test.

A few teams are very close conceptually like Vanderbilt, Texas and Washington State. The Commodores have Shan Foster, who can shoot lights out and A.J. Ogilvy in the paint, yet does anyone really believe Vandy could win six games away from Nashville? Texas has explosive A.J. Augustin and 6’10 Connor Atchley, whose stock is rising, still he is fourth scoring option most games. With the Cougars style of play, it is difficult to properly assess if Kyle Weaver and Aron Baynes are next level talents. If one wants optimistic view, go with yes, but can you trust team that averages then 67.1 points a game to put together six game winning streak?

Moving on, 70 percent of the teams that have a national championship the last decade won there conference tournament. Interestingly enough, the teams with the five longest winning streaks in the country during the regular season all won there post-season tournaments. A few years ago, a belief was floating around; losing in postseason tourneys was a good thing, allowing teams to rest more. Yet as we see, the power of momentum carries far greater importance, especially when it coming to cutting down the nets and be given the trophy by Jim Nantz and Billy Packer.

The ground rules are in place, the field is set, what teams meet all the criteria to be solid wagers to be crowned champions? There are three teams that stand above the rest and they are all numbers one seeds. They are North Carolina, Kansas and Memphis. Each has the long winning streak, each has the proper talent both inside and outside and each won conference tournament. The most recent odds available at Bookmaker.com have North Carolina 4-1, Kansas 5-1, and Memphis 6-1.

Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions. Good Luck.

Big Ten Betting Preview4-24-08

Oddsmakers know the Drill for NBA Playoffs
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

It is seemingly more automatic than gas prices going up daily, if the home team wins Game One to start the series, the next contest; the visiting team catches fewer points. Boston went off in the opener as three-point home favorite and has opened as two-point favorites for Game Two. The logical conclusion is made the road loser will be fired up and potentially provide a more inspired effort. After watching first matchup, you have to wonder will the Lakers do so.

For vast expanses of the first three quarters, Los Angeles was the better team in this reporter’s eyes, playing more effortlessly and being able to score when needed and able to play at Boston pace (not sure why). The Celtics defense was fixated on Kobe Bryant, doubling him on the perimeter, leaving Paul Gasol to roam free for easy, yet somehow awkward dunks and layups.

After a fast start, Kevin Garnett would missed the Boston Harbor throwing crates of tea off the British ship, badly aiming nine misguided shots. Ray Allen played both young and old in various trips down the court. Paul Pierce, what can you say about Paul Pierce? His Lazarus-like comeback in the same quarter, in which he was so badly (?) injured, could only have been fed by one thing. The ghost of Red Auerbach was making Pierce drink that Vitamin water that has helped Shaq become a jockey and LeBron a winner in the court of law.

Though clearly within striking distance, after Pierce’s near death experience and astonishing revival, the Lakers played like they had a leaky heart valve in the fourth quarter. The Los Angeles squad that was 31-15-2 ATS on the road coming into the game, left backers wanting more. Kobe wasn’t Kobe in the fourth quarter, off kilter by Boston’s alert double teams. He forced shots, missed open ones and probably felt he was being guarded by a nine-foot tall picket fence. Though he was dismissive about his 17 missed shots, "Nah, I just missed some bunnies. I just missed some really, really good looks." It was evident the Celtics defense was a conundrum for the league’s MVP.

A poignant moment in the fourth quarter, with the Celtics up six points about three and change left on the clock, was a mad scramble for the ball on the Lakers end off a missed shot. Two Boston players went diving for the ball; Vlad Radmanovic bent over and REACHED for the orange sphere. In the game’s most critical juncture, the guys in the white uniforms wanted it more their purple-clad counterparts. This was also shone on the glass as the more brutish Celtics out-rebounded the Lakers by 13.

The C’s showed why they are 20-9 ATS versus quality teams, outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game this season. KG, despite shooting issues, was a tiger on defense and helped will his team to victory. When Rome, or in this case Boston was crumbling, Pierce showed by he has the ‘C’ on his uniform, as he led his team when they needed it most. The Celtics are now 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning road record.

Phil Jackson is a zen master; he’ll test Bryant’s manhood in some manner in the time before the last whistle Thursday and Sunday night’s tipoff. Jackson will devise plays to free up Kobe closer to the basket, challenge Gasol to understand this is the NBA Finals, not another nice showing like he used to have in Memphis. He’ll explain to Lamar Odom, he’s far more valuable on the floor, than sitting on the bench with foul trouble.

Bettors believe the Lakers are hardly in trouble off one loss and BetonLine.com and other wagering outlets now have L.A. as just one-point favorites with total at 190.5. Los Angeles is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season and comprehends they can not go down 0-2 to the best defensive team in the league. Boston roughed up the Lakers a bit and it obvious they enjoyed it. What bettors have to beware of is the Celtics have not covered three in a row since beating Atlanta in Game 2 of the playoffs first round, with carry over from the regular season.

What team will have the bigger heart, the story unfolds Sunday night at 9 Eastern.

Betting NBA Finals – Opinions Vary

No Passing Fancy: Key NFL Passing Stat Trends for Week 8

By Steve Makinen
10-26-07

Just last week I went into depth about how a team’s ability to pass efficiently in the NFL directly affects its success on the scoreboard as well as against the pointspread. In that piece, it was shown that the top three teams in the league in PYA were the last three undefeated teams, while on the opposite end were the clubs struggling to win in ’07.

Keeping with the theme of the importance of passing stats, this week I will look at some of the top trends from the NFL’s games on Sunday and Monday, describing why each is important and how it might affect how each of the games plays out.

Enjoy the information. Hopefully it helps make your NFL Week 8 betting experience an enjoyable one!

(203) CLEVELAND at (204) ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM

ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last three seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 20.5, OPPONENT 37.2

Analysis: St. Louis has been a team that lives and dies by the big play since the Dick Vermeill days. Unfortunately, in recent years, the results have been more of the latter. In what has become a double-whammy of sorts, the Rams’ declining explosiveness on offense has been parlayed in their inability to stop big plays defensively. The average score alone should tell the story of how badly St Louis has struggled against big play passing attacks, as these opponents have averaged over 37 PPG in six games over the last few seasons. As surprising as it may sound, Cleveland actually has plenty of big play capability, and could put a hurting to the hosts in Sunday’s game at the Edward Jones Dome.

(205) DETROIT at (206) CHICAGO, 1:00 PM

CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 28.0, OPPONENT 8.0

Analysis: This particular trend, describing the Bears’ success in recent years at home against good passing teams has not been put to the test in the 2007 season yet, so take it with a grain of salt. However, past Chicago teams with stronger defenses than the current edition have thrived in this scenario. Case in point, this past January’s NFC title game win against New Orleans. Even if this year’s team isn’t performing as well as the past two seasons, this type of trend still provides a good indication of one of the strengths of the team under Lovie Smith. With a +20 point differential in the seven games covered by this trend, don’t be surprised to see Chicago make life tough for QB John Kitna and the Lions.

(207) INDIANAPOLIS at (208) CAROLINA, 1:00 PM

CAROLINA is 12-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1995.

Analysis: One of the primary strengths of Carolina’s football team in recent years, under John Fox in particular, has been it defensive front. That foursome has been known for causing havoc for opposing passing attacks. With athletes like Julius Peppers, Kris Jenkins and others having been the mainstays for the defensive unit, the Panthers have always possessed one of the most fierce pass rushes in the league. As a result, they have had good success against teams that have tried to attack them with the passing game.

(213) PHILADELPHIA at (214) MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM

PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 25.1, OPPONENT 18.8

Analysis: Philadelphia has been a pass-dominated offense for as long as Andy Reid has been Head Coach, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Eagles have been able to thrive against defenses that have had trouble stopping the passing game. If the struggling Bears’ offense and QB Brian Griese were able to gash the Vikings for 377 yards passing in their game two weeks ago, imagine what an improving Donovan McNabb can accomplish if he’s clicking at the Metrodome on Sunday.

(215) PITTSBURGH at (216) CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM

PITTSBURGH is 29-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.1, OPPONENT 18.1

Analysis: Under Bill Cowher, the Steelers were a defense that feasted on opponents who lived by throwing the ball. It’s obvious that the physical nature of the team during that time was the main reason for that. Under Mike Tomlin, the team’s identity has changed very little if any, so don’t expect a huge day from Carson Palmer and the Bengals here. In the two meetings between these divisional rivals in ’06, Pittsburgh held Cincinnati to 205 YPG through the air, 35 yards below that offense’s average. It reasonable to expect a similar result on Sunday.

(225) WASHINGTON at (226) NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM

WASHINGTON is 9-0 UNDER the Total vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game over the last three seasons.

Analysis: Since Joe Gibbs returned to the sideline for Washington, his team has been a more defensive-oriented club, choosing to go the conservative route on offense. In games when the Redskins are matched up against prolific passing teams, the goal has been clear. Don’t allow the big play, and don’t let the game turn into a track meet. The natural result of that is UNDER’s. Washington has gone under the total in nine straight games in this scenario and will certainly be looking to make it 10 in a row when it travels to New England on Sunday.

(227) GREEN BAY at (228) DENVER, Monday - 8:00 PM

DENVER is 40-20 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better under HC Mike Shanahan.

Analysis: Denver has been a big OVER team under Mike Shanahan overall, and particularly at home. They’ve been a 67% OVER team against good passing teams in his tenure. The reasoning is simple, since the Broncos have been a consistent offensive team for nearly two decades, boasting a strong balance of running and throwing the ball. Expecting teams like them to go over when matched against other good passing teams is certainly not a reach. Watch for a higher scoring Monday night affair when they host a rested Green Bay team and Brett Favre.

Don’t Make Assumptions!

By Jim Kruger
10-22-07

In last week’s article I looked for teams that were out of a normal routine, having a change in their pattern. The results were very good as the two teams I wrote about, Rutgers and Syracuse, were both winners straight-up and against the spread.

This week I am looking for any contrast in two college football teams playing each other and whether that contrast makes a difference in the rate a team covers against the spread. As someone who has been handicapping for a number of years, I usually have a preconceived notion of what the results will be. More times than not I am correct in my suppositions. But, there are times when the results surprise me.

One situation where the results were contradictory to what I assumed they would be happens this week. The general premise was at this time of the season how would a team who has played one less game year to date fare against a team which has played one more game than the first team. Looking at this week, would a team which has played eight games be more tired than a team who has only played seven games? Would injuries be more prevalent with the team who has played that extra game?

I started looking at teams that have played seven games versus teams that have eight games under their belts. I didn’t want to have the effects of an immediate week off for the team with the fewer games played so I eliminated teams off of a bye week. Just that simple trend alone produced no discernable results. However, if you add a couple of qualifiers you start seeing some better numbers.

Let’s make the team that has tallied seven games an underdog visiting a conference foe. Let’s also add that the team’s next game after this one is a home game. To my surprise, the team that has played the one fewer game covered the spread only 31% of the time going back to 1980. For people who like a more recent sample, over the past five years the visiting team is only 2-13 ATS. East Carolina and Louisville are the teams who qualify under this trend this week.

I am always trying to improve, or sometimes disprove, a trend I have uncovered by using logical criteria as qualifiers. In drilling down just a little further, if you make the visiting team coming off of a loss and the home team’s next game an away game, the ATS coverage rate of the team who has played one less game is now reduced to 22.7%. Only East Carolina qualifies at this trend.

As in this case, sometimes the results of a particular situation don’t turn out the way you think they will. That is why I like to look at how the situation in question performed in the past. Past results don’t guarantee future results, but they can be a very good guide.

Good luck this week!

The Unbeaten College Teams: Have you missed the boat?

By Steve Makinen, Statfox.com

With so many of the nation’s predicted elite powers already having suffered a loss, the group of remaining unbeaten teams is a mix of just a few expected teams and several surprises. About half of the season is done for most of these clubs. What does the future hold for each? Are these undefeated teams a reliable bet the rest of the way or is their best ATS success behind them?

Unfortunately, as you’ll find out if you read on, there aren’t a whole lot of successful angles to point to for backing these teams the rest of the way. For most, that ship has already sailed, as recent history has shown that very few of these teams go on to winning ATS records the rest of the season. If you weren’t a passenger on that pleasure cruise in the first half of the season, be sure to not make the mistake of purchasing your betting ticket for the second-half sail.

That’s not to say that you won’t be able to pick and choose where to play these teams from now through Bowl Season, but you just won’t have any particular edge against the oddsmaker other than what you would have derived from common means.

What might be the reason that teams starting the season 6-0 have covered the pointspread in just 46% of their second-half games this decade? The two most obvious factors are that oddsmakers have “caught up” to these teams and the motivation of their opponents is heightened. Let’s face it, the challenge of staying undefeated gets greater and greater with each passing week, and each successive opponent is getting hungrier to knock that team off. At the same time, with the more wins a team records without being beaten, the more the public jumps on their bandwagon, especially at the betting window. Without any other factors considered, I’ve spoken at length of how that makes for a losing proposition.

Those are the theories, now here are some of the key trends when looking at the teams that have started 6-0 since 2000. When considering these trends, make note that these 56 teams combined for a record of 196-117 ATS (63%) during their unbeaten starts.

- College teams that have started the season 6-0 SU have gone on to win on average 10.8 games per season against 2.0 defeats. That second half winning percentage of 70% is obviously a 30% drop off from the first half record.

- Of the 6-0 teams with a spread-covering mark of at most 2-3, or 40% ATS, only three of the nine teams went on to a winning ATS record in the second half of the season and the entire group combined for a 28-31 ATS record.

- Of the fourteen 6-0 teams that were at least 80% successful against the number in the first half, only six went on to a winning ATS record in their remaining games and finished 43-48 ATS combined for 47%.

None of these trends really give us anything to lean on going forward. However, the best winning angles can be found if you can predict which teams are ready to implode at this point, or which you suspect can finish the season unbeaten. Take a look at these tidbits:

- The 6-0 teams that wind up going unbeaten for the entire season maintain their 63% ATS success rate in the second half. Overall, these eight teams combined for a record of 34-20 ATS the rest of the way.

- The teams that start 6-0 but wind up with a below-.500 straight up record in the second half of the season have combined to go just 23-53 ATS (30%) in those remaining games. Furthermore, only one of those 12 clubs was a profitable bet the rest of the way.

What this means is that you should look at the remaining unbeaten schools and evaluate their status going forward. Tag those teams that you feel could survive the rest of the way without suffering a defeat and follow them, while fading the 6-0 clubs you feel may be overrated at this point and headed for disaster. With that in mind, here’s a look at each of the remaining undefeated teams in college football and how I see the rest of their ’07 seasons unfolding.

Ohio State (7-0 SU, 4-2 ATS): The Buckeyes have been under the radar up until now since they didn’t start the season in the Top 10 despite finishing as the national runner-ups a year ago. Now, ranked #1 across the board in all three categories, they will be an obvious target for future opponents. Ohio State’s last five opponents are arguably the Big Ten’s next best teams, each with a current record of 5-2, and they have struggled beating the number against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Illinois historically.

South Florida (6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS): The confidence of the Bulls heading into their Thursday showdown with Rutgers has to be at an all-time high coming off the 52-point win over UCF last Saturday. However, the game against the Scarlet Knights might be USF’s biggest test of the year to this point, and that includes both the West Virginia and Auburn games. If they get by that game, the toughest foes on the schedule are at home, and there’s no question they will be favored in every game the rest of the way. Keep in mind though that Jim Leavitt’s club has never been favored by more than 20 points in a game and will be a risky bet at anything in double-digits in conference play.

Boston College (7-0 SU & 4-2 ATS): The common trait among the remaining teams that are unbeaten in college football is that they all have the toughest parts of their 207 schedules yet to play. For Boston College, that is certainly the case. Starting with Next Thursday’s trip to Blacksburg and Virginia Tech, the Golden Eagles will face all of the traditional powers of the ACC. Three of those five games are on the road, and considering BC was 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in the road favorite role last season, the chances of escaping unbeaten through 12 games looks remote. Plus, taking into account that they were actually a 6-1/2 point underdog at Georgia Tech, any spot in which they are a favorite at a difficult ACC environment will be a major over-adjustment by oddsmakers.
Arizona State (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS): Arizona State and new head coach Dennis Erickson has been a pleasant surprise among the unbeaten ranks and is ensured of staying that way at least another week since it has this week off. What’s been most pleasant for bettors is that Erickson seems intent on covering spreads week-in and week-out, trying to gain every measure of respect he can for his program. However, this is where the fun begins for the Sun Devils, with games against Cal, at Oregon, at UCLA, and USC coming on the docket. When you consider that ASU was 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against those same four teams while being outscored by 20.5 PPG in ’06, the chances are greater that they’ll lose four in a row rather than go unbeaten through the stretch.

Kansas (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS): There are very few teams that start as fast and as dominantly as Kansas has and then proceed to flop in the second half of the season. If any one of the unbeaten teams is still doubted by oddsmakers, it would figure to be the Jayhawks, since their most recent win at home against Baylor was the first time they actually played to a line befitting of a dominant team. Laying 26 to the Bears, all Mark Mangino’s team did was win 58-10. Critics will continue to argue that KU has played a weak schedule, and they have, but the mere fact that they are beating those weak clubs by over 40 PPG is enough to rebuke the argument. Plus, look down the road at the remaining opponents and you’ll see that they conveniently miss Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech.
Hawaii (7-0 SU, 2-3 ATS): Contender or pretender? For no other unbeaten team does the question speak more loudly than it does for Hawaii. Coming off the BCS party crashing effort by Boise State last year, the nation longs for another Cinderella story like the Broncos in ’07. Colt Brennan and the Warriors are the last hope, and while the offense may be as good as Boise’s was in ’06, the defense is nowhere near BCS level. Hawaii’s 42-35 OT win on ESPN last night demonstrated just how ripe this team is for the upset. Still, with all that said, the fact is the Warriors are still unbeaten and their most difficult game remaining is Boise, but at home, where they are averaging 60.3 PPG.

A Change in a Teams’ Routine

By Jim Kruger
10-17-07

This week I haven’t yet found a juicy 90% angle like I wrote about last week with our spread winner on UNLV over BYU. But, I do believe I have found some angles which are worth looking at.

In handicapping sports, I try to look for situations where teams have gotten used to experiencing a certain normalcy, a routine, and now have a change in this pattern. This could be a string of home games and now the team is on the road or a team that has just experienced a loss after a number of wins. I look at historical results for these types of situations and see what patterns have happened in the past and are there any current or future games that fall into these tendencies.

Does the team who is used to “homecooking” do much worse when they go on the road? Let’s just hypothesize that teams only cover the spread 42% of the time after three or more home games and now are playing a game away from home. While this is a very high-level example, shouldn’t one take this general edge into consideration and perhaps be more careful before backing such a team? I believe so. The sports bettor who does not take this into consideration in my opinion is not using a full tool set to pick winners. However, everybody has their own way of doing things and the final results are all that really matter.

An example of a change from what a team is used to is when they have been a favorite three games in a row and now are a home dog. The team has gotten used to being the expected winner and now is in a different role as the expected loser. And, they are at home, even a bigger insult! If you are a three-point home dog or more you obviously have risen to the occasion enough to cover the spread 70% of the time over the past five years going 28-12 ATS. Scarlet Knight backers should be aware that their team, Rutgers, falls into this historically winning ticket position in their upcoming game against South Florida.

How about a situation that is longer term than just being favored over the past three games.
Let’s look at a team that last year tasted great success and won at least eleven games. Again, the team is probably used to being favored in just about every one of their games, even those on the road. They obviously have developed a certain chip on their shoulder which would carry over to the next year. Let’s examine the same situation where they are an underdog and the game is being played on their own home turf. This team with the winning pedigree from the previous year covers at an 80% rate, albeit we had to go back ten years to get a large enough sample to consider. And, once again, Rutgers falls into this trend.

One final attractive trend that shows up when there is a change in a teams’ recent routine. When a team has played a conference team the previous three games and now goes on the road as a dog playing a non-conference team that lost their last game, they are a dismal 9-21 against the spread. This is a money-draining 30% coverage rate. We happen to have this situation occurring this week. Buffalo falls into this losing angle when they visit Syracuse this week.

Good luck this week!

Jim Kruger

Two Straight Losses Versus Two Straight Wins
By Jim Kruger
10-8-07

Last week we looked at teams who were on a winning streak and still undefeated. The three different trends we highlighted finished 3-2 against the spread with a couple of notable winners with Stanford and Washington State. Unfortunately, I didn’t follow those two and instead thought Purdue was a better selection over Ohio State, especially considering the Stanford starting quarterback wasn’t going to play due to a seizure. Add some insulting remarks that the Cardinal Coach, Jim Harbaugh, had made about USC’s head mentor, Pete Carroll, along with USC falling to number two in the polls and that game had blowout written all over it. Going strictly by point spreads means that the Stanford win over USC was the biggest upset of all time in D-1 football, or whatever the heck the NCAA is calling major college football now.

This week we are going to look at teams who have lost their last two-games playing against a team who has won its previous two games. On a very basic level, one could say the two teams are going in opposite directions. But, the almighty point spread is the equalizer for our consideration.

If you just do a vanilla query you find that these teams who have lost two straight playing against a team who has won their last two games over the past five years gives you a 52.6% advantage playing on the team who has been losing. Refining this to the losing team as a dog improves you to 53.6%. So far there is nothing strong enough yet for placing wagers on a certain team.

If you have this team playing at home then your rate at covering the spread is now 56.2%. Add the contest being a conference game and at least the team’s fifth game of the year and we have moved up to an even 60% ATS rate. Right now, four teams this week fall into this angle: Duke, Idaho, Iowa, and UNLV.

We improve this ATS winning rate to 75% by adding one more qualifier: the team’s next game is also at home. We are now looking at a 30-10 ATS rate since 2002. Oh, and the only team that falls this week into this angle is UNLV over BYU. If you are a believer in the shorter time frame the better for a trend, then you will be happy to know this play is 22-3 since the beginning of the 2004 season. 12-1 the past two seasons, 2-0 so far this year.

Just curious, but in certain situations I believe that a team who is on the road but going home the next week can be more prone to a performance at less than 100%. Let’s see what the ATS record is of our team is if their opponent is playing at home next week. Instead of just 30-10, 75%, how about 19-4, 82.6%, over the past five years and 18-2 over the past four years!

Looking at the logic behind this makes sense. You have a team, BYU, who has won their past two games. They are playing a team, UNLV, that has lost its last two games. The Cougars are going on the road and the linesmaker is telling them they are definitely the better team by having them favored. Adding to the easing of BYU’s mindset is they get to play at home the following week.

This is a perfect time for the favored road team not to bring their “A game”. This angle happened twice last week with Duke covering against Wake Forest and North Carolina not only covering but winning outright as a home dog against Miami-Florida.

Every sport has situational tendencies. Certain tendencies happen at different rates depending upon the time of the season coupled with a multitude of other factors. Some tendencies only show up in certain sports. Unearthing some of these tendencies can help you pick more winners than losers.

Good luck to everyone this week!

Undefeated Teams as the Season Progresses

By Jim Kruger

10-1-07

”The Upset Special” was the favorite menu item this past week at the College Football Diner as three of the top five teams and seven of the top 13 in the USA Today coaches poll went down in flames. Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Rutgers, and West Virginia were all upset outright in very entertaining games.

Do teams get overvalued by the linesmaker when they are 4-0, maybe even more so when they are 5-0? Does the public push the line up by blindly betting on these teams that look like sure winners? Using the 2000 season as our beginning base, you get some interesting results.

If the 4-0 team is on the road and favored, there is no edge as the undefeated team is 24-23. As a dog, they are slightly better hitting at 16-11, a 59.25% cover rate. Kansas at Kansas State this week falls into that subset.

However, if the team is at home and favored, if you just blindly bet against this team you would have a record since 2000 of 34-14, a 70.8% winning percentage against the spread. It appears one could surmise that 4-0 teams at home are greatly overvalued. Are there any of these overvalued teams playing this Saturday? Yes, a couple of them qualify under this situation.

How about the Missouri Tigers going against the Cornhuskers from Nebraska? A quick look at the ATS records for both teams would seem like Missouri would be the choice. After all, Nebraska has failed to cover their last four games including a very close win at Wake Forest and a lucky one-point victory at home against the Ball State Cardinals, 41-40. Nebraska didn’t inspire confidence for their backers last week in leading Iowa State at home by four points at halftime before winning by 18 points with the benefit of a 93 yard interception return for a touchdown in the second half. However, they still failed to cover the 21-point spread.

Missouri is 3-0 against the spread with the afore-mentioned 4-0 straight-up record. Their last game was a non-lined win over Illinois State. The Tigers are off of a bye week. If you follow our 70+% winning angle mentioned above and put your money on the Huskers, perhaps your chances will be enhanced if the Tigers spent some downtime at one of the best sports bars in the nation, Harpo’s in Columbia, MO. Maybe they partook in some of the worst drinks ever served across a counter, the mind-altering “Black and Gold” consisting of Jägermeister and Goldschläger. How about a couple of shots of Drano to really clean your system out?

The NU-MU game should be a fun one to watch with two quarterbacks throwing the ball all over the field, Nebraska’s Sam Keller and Mizzou’s Chase Daniel. The winner of this game will be at the forefront for contention of the Big 12 North title with the winner of the Kansas-Kansas State game.

The other game that falls in our 70+% system is taking Stanford plus the multitude of points over USC. You have to be a believer in new Cardinal coach Jim Harbaugh, and not be overly concerned that this is Stanford’s first road game.

We have talked about 4-0 teams, how about 5-0 teams? Good question, let’s take a look. Teams with the good fortune of being undefeated after five games and are now playing away and are favored, are a pathetic 7-22 against the spread since 2000. If you are a believer in playing these undefeated road favorites, you are only winning your wagers at a very sad 24.1% rate. Ohio State and Arizona State fall into this very poor covering situation when they go on the road this week to visit Purdue and Washington State respectively.

The general public loves to play favorites, this is a well-known fact. The two angles mentioned above makes you realize that it is not always profitable blindly betting favorites, especially undefeated teams.

Sports betting is a fascinating endeavor. Looking at results from past history does not always mean they will replay themselves in the current environment. However, it does give you a firm starting place to work from.

Good luck this week!

Does Overtime Affect a Team’s Next Game?
By Jim Kruger
September 23, 2007

Every handicapper has their own style, their own methodology in handicapping games. I look at each sport using different variations to my style. In one sport I might have a stronger emphasis on fundamentals or statistics. In another sport, perhaps a teams’ specific angles or trends carries the most weight. College football has different quirks than the NFL does. There is no way I can handicap the NBA in the same manner as I do college basketball. Baseball is a different animal all together.

One aspect I use in every sport is situational handicapping. This can be on a macro level looking at data in very general terms to all the way to drilling down on a specific key player. Normally, I will start with a basic situation and refine it hoping to find the spot with the highest winning percentage. You always need a large enough sample size for the situation to have credibility in my mind, but finding a situational trend early can be very profitable.

Let’s start with a very basic situation and look at teams in college football non-bowl games where their previous game went into overtime. Since the 2000 season, teams off of an overtime game covered against the spread 47.6% of the time in their next game. I am not yet using any other qualifiers or filters, just a very basic database query.

Taking it to the next step, let’s look at how those teams did in their previous game. If the team won their previous overtime game, they don’t do quite as well as if they had lost it covering 44.8% versus 50.3% of the time respectively.

Now, let’s take those winners in overtime last week and see if where they are playing makes any difference. If those teams are now playing at home their cover rate is 52.3% versus a poor 36% if they are now the visiting team. That is quite a large difference.

Let’s see if we can drill down even more to discover even a larger advantage for us. In looking at those visiting teams off of a win in OT, if their previous game was played at home and they are still home, they cover at a 52.6% rate. That obviously is not a large enough edge for us to put our hard-earned money on. But, if that team that won in OT at home is now on the road, they only get the ATS win 31.5% of the time!

When looking at situations I always like to see if they are logical, if they make sense. This one definitely does. It is very understandable that a team that won last week at home in a hard-fought overtime game would be due for a letdown going out on the road. The ATS results prove this to be correct.

How about one last tweak to our overtime situation? Making the game a conference game slightly reduces the historical ATS rate to 29.3% for those road teams off of an overtime win at home.

This is one of the angles I used in my Gold 5 Star winner last week on BYU over Air Force. And, guess what, it shows up again in two weeks with a play on Duke over Wake Forest.

This does not mean I am automatically betting on Duke, I still need to look at the myriad of other factors that I use but one thing I can definitely say is I am not betting on Wake Forest this week!

Finding Value Early in the College Football Season

By Jim Kruger
9-10-07

The most improvement in a college football team comes between week 1 and week 2. Of course I am making an assumption there is improvement. A good handicapper is able to sniff out which teams are overrated, getting too much respect from the linesmaker and the public, and which ones are underrated. Early in the season is the best time to uncover the incorrectly valued teams that can lead to getting off to a very profitable first few weeks.

In the case of the University of Michigan, a team I went against this past week, there was no chance they would show improvement. After going 11-1 last year, how do you think RB Mike Hart, QB Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham felt after bypassing last year’s NFL draft to come back their senior season to “win the national championship” and losing to a D-II school named after a mountain range? The Wolverines should be stuck with the proverbial fork as the team’s dreams have been shattered. Ann Arbor is on suicide watch.

The AP and the Coaches Polls both are giving Wisconsin too much credit. At least both polls dropped the Badgers from fifth to seventh this week after their poor showing against UNLV as almost a four touchdown favorite. I have been a UNLV season ticket holder for the eight years I have lived in Las Vegas and while this was the most inspired Rebel team I have ever seen perform in person, one has to remember this is a team that has only won two games each of the past two years.

A redshirt freshman, Travis Dixon, is quarterbacking the Rebels as their highly touted USC transfer, Rocky Hinds, has been unable to return this year due to offseason knee surgery.
This UNLV freshman passed for 258 yards completing 22 of 33 attempts, against the then-firth-ranked Badgers.

The UNLV defense, which has numerous freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep rotation, held up very well while being overmatched physically. The total yardage for both teams was fairly close and unlike the situation in many dramatic upsets or near-upsets, Wisconsin committed no turnovers. While I love the fans of Wisconsin (they pump a lot of money into the Las Vegas economy on their visits out here), the Badgers will be a team I am looking to go against.

When I lived in Kansas City, I used to date a girl who graduated from Notre Dame. Years ago she asked me to go with her to her college reunion. The reunions at Notre Dame are kind of neat as the classes from every five-years are all invited to the same reunion so you get a wide-range of ages at the reunions. While there were many prominent former Irish football players at the reunion, the guy I enjoyed the most was the late Leon Hart, the 1949 Heisman Trophy winner. We sat at a dinner table with Mr. Hart and his wife. He was a real character. He holds the distinction of being the only lineman to win three National Titles in both college and the pros. Also, Hart was the last and one of only two lineman ever to win the Heisman Trophy. (yeah, I am a former lineman. Granted, it was only at the high school level, but linemen relate to one another).

Sorry for the regression, just reliving fond memories.

Well, enough blabbing about Notre Dame. Let’s just leave it at South Bend, Indiana has joined Ann Arbor on the suicide watch.

Finding an undervalued team early is just as important as discovering the inflated expectations of
some teams. When you can find both meeting head to head, you have the perfect storm. Such an incident happened last week when South Carolina traveled to Athens, GA to play the Bulldogs. The Gamecocks, a pick of mine last week, have one of the best defenses in the nation. They have a very fine quarterback and a coach that is the master of revenge, Steve Spurrier.

Georgia played Oklahoma State at home last week. They handled the high-octane Cowboy offense very well. But the fact remains, the Bulldogs had 12 first-time starters including eight on defense and are a young team. Did Georgia deserve a close to top ten ranking with South Carolina not even in the Top 25? Yes, it’s easy to state this after the results are in, but the fact remains that I took the Gamecocks because I felt the better team was the underdog.

I also like to look at situational handicapping spots, Even though it is a small sample, a basic angle I uncovered is road teams in game #3 that have been on the road the first two weeks and who are also on the road next week only cover at a 16.7% rate over the past six years. This situation applies to San Jose State visiting Stanford this week.

Philadelphia out to Fly to First Victory
By Doug Upstone, Statfox.com

A knockdown affair is on tap in the Philadelphia, as the Eagles and Washington try to match Dallas with a win in the NFC East. The Redskins are 2-9 (4-6-1 ATS) in last 11 trips into the City of Brotherly Love and are out to reverse fortunes from opening whistle. Washington actually leads the all-time series 74-64-5 lead, even after being swept last season.

The Redskins must feel good following a three-point win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but in those results sit reason for trepidation. The Skins were atrocious in 2006 but went on their annual spending spree in free agency to reverse the trend, and the Fins should not be used as an objective measuring stick. The Washington defense held Miami to just 3.3 yards per carry, giving hope to defensive coordinator Greg Robinson the defense is back. Especially impressive were linebackers Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher, who cleaned up making a host of tackles in the opener. On offense, QB Jason Campbell failed to impress with just 12 completions for 222 yards and two interceptions versus zero touchdowns. The rushing numbers were great, averaging 4.7 yards per carry for 191 total rushing yards with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts leading the way. Washington did suffer a tremendous loss as tackle Jon Jansen broke his ankle, which will end up hurting the Redskins running game both today and in the future. Sportsbook.com has Washington as a 6.5-point underdog and in this rivalry the dog in only 1-6 ATS recently.

The Eagles were expected to once again serve as a model for others to follow, hitting the 2007 season as a favorite to battle for the NFC title. While it is just one week of work, it may be fair to take the results of Week 1 and turn them into worry. Against a persistent Green Bay defense, QB Donovan McNabb completed just 45% of his passes for 184 yards and one TD. McNabb is not the nibble scrambler coming back from devastating knee injury and was a sitting duck in the pocket, being swallowed up by the Packers front four like a bowl full of Campbell’s soup. The Philadelphia offensive line came into 2007 considered a strength and was woefully ineffective last week. Brian Westbrook was part of the rushing attack that really struggled, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry (29 carries for 103 yards). On defense the effort was strong and should have been enough to avoid the three-point loss. The Eagles earned four sacks and were relentless in pursuit of the Brett Favre, holding the Packers to a lowly 2.7 yards per carry as well. Those efforts should have produced better results; however Philly was betrayed by deplorable special teams. The failure of this unit, literally gave the Pack the win.

Keys to the Game – In order to limit the unrelenting blitzing schemes of DC Jim Johnson, Washington needs to run the ball against undersized Philadelphia front. This makes the Eagles play more straight up and keeps Campbell protected against potential troubles. The Redskins are 10-5-1 ATS on the road vs. NFC East teams. Philly will in turn try to flush the Washington running game; make Campbell beat them with the pass. Antwan Randle El was finally something other than a decoy and was a factor in first game win. The Eagles have the ability to return him to former role. Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite on Monday night, while Washington is 3-5 against the number as a road dogs to open the work week.

Monday Night System – Play Against any Monday Night football home team in a divisional game that lost by seven or less points the previous week. (17-5, 77.2%)

StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia by 10

NFL Week 2…Much of the Same
by Steve Makinen
Statfox,com

America loves sensationalism. Consider the most recent and devastating of events, or the most unusual of occurrences, the public has glued itself to these stories immediately afterwards. At the same time, it’s also commonly believed that the attention span of this same group is short. It is this logic that led me to analyze the fortunes of week two teams in the NFL that produced some sensationalized results in their first contest. With just seven days in between games for these teams, would oddsmakers turn on them quickly? Would the betting public forget about what happened just a week earlier? These are just a couple of the questions I hoped to get answers for.

I have to admit that going into the research I fully expected to see results that indicated two points. First the chances for bounce-backs by the poor teams were good and secondly the teams that rolled in their first game would come back down to earth. No such luck. In fact, if things didn’t get worse or better for those teams respectively, they generally at least stayed the same. Therefore, instead of having some catchy title to a groundbreaking system like “NFL Week 2 Bounce-back”, I had to settle for “Much of the Same.”

In any case, the results I uncovered were worth the effort so I encourage you to read on. As the title indicates, it’s much of the same from week one to week two in the NFL. You’ll also see from some of the trends described below that much of it seems to center around the second week home team’s defensive effort in the first game. If that unit dominated, the hosts are a good bet for week two. Alternatively, if it struggled in week one, get your money down on the road teams as fast you can reach the betting window.

Before getting into the different trends that have been successful in week two based upon week one results, it’s important to point out the criteria I used to consider a week one score “sensational”. For the most part, I simply looked at the final scores, since despite what DirecTV wants you to believe, most of the betting public DOES NOT have NFL Sunday Ticket, and furthermore, they don’t spend a whole lot of time reviewing box scores either. They know who won and lost and by how much, and have already picked up a common belief about the teams. For these scoreboard watchers, perception is reality. So, I looked for teams that either scored or allowed single-digit points or on the other end 35 & higher. I also looked for the point margin in the games, specifically focusing on blowout games of 20 points or more and close games decided by a field goal or less.

These are numerous different angles to use in your week two NFL betting. For each trend, I’ve listed the qualifiers for evaluating this coming weekend’s games. Note that the data used for examining these trends were taken over the last 10 seasons, or 1997-2006.

Enjoy the analysis everyone and good luck with “the man” this weekend.

Home Teams Winning or Losing Close Game in Week 1
- Home teams in week 2 that won their opening game by three or less points are 12-5 ATS (71%).

Plays for ’07: Denver, Tennessee, Arizona

- Home teams that lost the opener by a field goal or less are 6-9 ATS (40%) in their week 2 game.

Plays for ’07: AGAINST Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Miami

Road Teams Winning or Losing Close Game in Week 1
- Road teams in week 2 that lost their opening game by three or less points are 11-6 ATS (65%).

Plays for ’07: Buffalo

Home teams that won by 20 or more points in week 1 are 6-2 ATS (75%) in week 2.

Plays for ’07: Pittsburgh, New England

Home Teams Winning or Losing a Double-Digit Game in Week 1

- Home teams that lost the opener by a double-digit margin are 12-19 ATS (39%) in their week 2 game.

Plays for ’07: AGAINST Cleveland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Chicago, NY Giants

Home or Road Team Scoring Differential from Week 1 Results

- Road teams with a scoring differential of over 30 points better from week 1 than the home team are 12-5 ATS (71%) in week 2.

Plays for ’07: NONE

Home teams with a week 1 scoring differential advantage of 25 points or more than the road team are 11-2 ATS (85%) in the second game.

Plays for ’07: Pittsburgh

Home Teams That Scored or Allowed Less than 10 Points in Week 1

- Home teams that allowed fewer than 10 points in their first game are 10-5 ATS

(67%) in the week 2 contest, including 4-0 ATS as double-digit favorites.

Plays for ’07: Pittsburgh

Home Teams That Scored or Allowed 35 or more Points in Week 1

- Home teams that allowed more than 35 points in their first game are 2-13 ATS (13%) in the week 2 contest, including 0-4 ATS (0%) as an underdog.

Plays for ’07: AGAINST NY Giants

Road Teams That Scored or Allowed more than 35 Points in Week 1

- Week 2 road teams that scored more than 35 points in their opening contest are just 4-9 ATS (31%).

Plays for ’07: AGAINST New Orleans, Dallas, Oakland

Combo Angle – Road Team Allowed 10 Points or less and Home Team Scored 10 or less in Week 1

- Road teams that allowed 10 or fewer points in week 1 are 6-3-1 ATS (67%) in week 2 when facing an opponent who scored 10 or fewer in its opening contest.

Plays for ’07: None

Combo Angle – Home Team Allowed 10 Points or less and Road Team Scored less than 20 in Week 1

- Home teams that allowed 10 or fewer points in week 1 are 8-2 ATS (80%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who scored less than 20 in its opening contest.

Plays for ’07: Pittsburgh

Combo Angle – Home Team Allowed 35 Points or more and Road Team Scored more than 14 in Week 1

- Home teams that allowed 35 or more points in week 1 are 2-10 ATS (17%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who scored more than 14 points in its opening contest.

Plays for ’07: AGAINST NY Giants

Home Double-Digit Favorites in Week 2

- Double-digit home favorites in week 2 are 9-6 ATS (60%) overall and 3-0 ATS (100%) if their opponent failed to score 10 points in week 1.

Plays for ’07: Jacksonville, Chicago

Home Underdogs in Week 2

- Home underdogs in week 2 that are matched against an opponent that scored more than 35 points in week 1 are 5-2 ATS (71%).

Plays for ’07: Tennessee, Miami

- Home underdogs in week 2 going up against an opponent who yielded less than 17 points in its opening game are just 6-10 ATS (38%)

Plays for ’07: AGAINST Tennessee, Arizona

Week 2 Road Underdogs

- Road underdogs in the second week of the NFL season facing an opponent who allowed less than 10 points in its opening game are 4-9 ATS (31%)

Plays for ’07: AGAINST Buffalo

If you were keeping track, that’s 17 week 2 NFL pointspread systems with success rates of 60% or better, or 40% or worse, meaning there should be plenty of incentive to qualifying this year’s week 2 games. You should be on your way to a great weekend of NFL betting.

Conference Tendencies
By Jim Kruger
8-15-07

One thing I like to do is to look for any tendencies that occur in a conference. Sometimes finding one or two can help line your pockets with cash throughout the season.

However, tendencies can change from year to year. However, if you can find one that lasts for a couple of seasons, it is well worth the effort.

Back in the year 2000, there were a number of double digit home dogs in Big 12 games. I started tracking how they did to see perhaps if the linesmakers were assigning too much value to the top tier Big 12 teams or if there was that big of difference between the top tier and bottom conference teams.

That year home dogs in the Big 12 went 10-14 against the spread. Nothing earth-shattering but a trend that looked very good when the pups in their own house were just 6-14 before closing the final three weeks of the season on a four-game winning streak.

It was a good trend over the next three years to play against Big 12 home dogs as they only put up a 24-44 ATS record. A three trend which covered almost 65% of the time is one I like to find!

All good things eventually come to an end, which this trend did with conviction in 2004. Big 12 home dogs went an amazing 15-3 ATS that year! Oklahoma was the biggest contributor to that stellar record as they were 0-4 as road favorites. The following year wasn’t as bad, but the home dogs still went 11-8 ATS.

Some conferences have a larger gap between the top and bottom rung teams. The MAC is such an animal. In a conference game, if a MAC team won their previous game on the road and are now playing at home and are favored by more than a touchdown but less than three touchdowns, that team is 22-7 ATS since 1990.

Sometimes trends surprise me. I always hear how great of a home field advantage there is in the Southeastern Conference. Over the past three years, SEC home teams have covered only a shade better than 44% of their home games. In that time span, ONLY THREE SEC teams even show a winning home record against the number.

Let’s drill down a little further and look at small home dogs of less than three points in the SEC. How about this record: only four winning seasons over the past 27 years for these small pups.

Most of these trends I use as guidelines. I may not blindly follow the trend, but there will have to be some very solid reasons why I go against a trend. I don’t only rely on trends for handicapping college football games, but it is a tool that I do use.

A Team to Fade

By Jim Kruger
7-24-07

I was surfing the net the other day and saw an article written detailing how the Kansas City Chiefs are the “darkhouse team to get to the Super Bowl”. As I am one who believes everybody’s opinion on picking an individual game against the spread deserves a certain amount of respect, I did my best to show deference to the author’s view on the Chief’s 2007 outlook.

However, to quote two icons from my generation, John Belushi and Steve Martin, I have to say “excuuuuuusssse me”!

The Chiefs have as much chance of making it to the Super Bowl as Michael Vick does in being named the Man of the Year by the Humane Society. In fact, if you can find a book to bet the UNDER 8 for season wins, I believe it to be a great wager. At the Hilton Superbook here in Vegas the Chiefs opened at 8 season wins but with a -150 premium. I even like the UNDER 7.5 season wins available at many offshore books.

Okay, why are the Chiefs headed south?

The Chiefs have not had a very good record in drafting players that make a difference, let alone become quality NFL starters, over the past ten years. Yes they have Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, and Derrick Johnson to help pump their chest up from past drafts. Last year’s #1 pick, DE Tamba Hali, is looking like a potential future star. The Chiefs first-round choice this year, wideout Dwayne Bowe, hopefully will have better luck than past high KC WR draftees Sylvester Morris and Marvin “Snoop” Minnis. However, with Bowe showing up late for camp and overweight, he is not off to a good start.

What are the Chief’s strengths on offense? Well, a very good running back behind an average offensive line at best. KC will probably start a brand new quarterback, Brodie Croyle, who wasn’t really that great in college, especially when his playmaker wideout went down with an injury. If Croyle doesn’t work out, they can always fall back on 11-year veteran Damon Huard. Last year Huard did what was asked of him when starter Trent Green went down: not make mistakes and hand off to Johnson. Let’s face it, watching a Herm Edwards team on offense is worse than watching butter melt at room temperature.

To go from one of the best lines in the past twenty years of football to one that has a revolving door at tackle says plenty. Johnson is a very good running back, but now has a patch-work line attempting to open holes for him. Opposing defenses will bunch up at the line to stop Johnson and make the Chiefs’ signal-caller put it up.

I see where people are stating that the Chiefs adding Donnie Edwards as a free agent signee at linebacker is a coup for the KC defense. Well, maybe five years ago it was but not today. Edwards was very good in his prime, but that was the past. KC has signed other free agent defensive linemen to take the place of failed draft choices t